Victorian election guide now live

Great work Ben!

It’s a long way out and so much can happen in between but I’m going to make an early prediction.

LIB GAIN (7 from ALP): Bass, Pakenham, Hastings, Ripon, Yan Yean, Melton, Eureka.
ALP GAIN (1 from GRN): Richmond
GRN GAIN (1 from LIB): Prahran (regain)
IND GAIN (1 from LIB): Hawthorn

That would result in: ALP 50, LNP 34, GRN 3, IND 1.
2PP around 51-49 to ALP (-4).

On a side note, I would personally still use 2022 as the baseline for Prahran though, despite changing hands, due to Labor’s absence. If it changed hands with all of ALP, GRN & LIB running then perhaps the change of hands would justify the byelection margin, but considering that byelection had such a unique dynamic specific to that contest, 2022 seems much more comparable to 2026 to me.

So I’d basically consider it a 12% GRN margin with an incumbent LIB MP as the starting point, which I think is the only way to calculate any meaningful swings (it’s hard to calculate a swing from a byelection where a major party was absent).

Oh I forgot about Footscray. That’s a dark horse for a GRN gain from ALP in my opinion.

So possibly 49 ALP, 34 LNP, 4 GRN, 1 IND if the Greens can pick off Footscray while Labor’s popularity has waned and both the Greens & VS have made huge gains in that area recently.

Agree Trent, the next 2026 Victorian election is giving off vibes of NSW 2007 or Queensland 2009, elections which featured a new Labor leader who was seen as low profile and mediocre, but also an opposition that was still in some kind of disarray with a leader unable to set a clear direction. As a result, the most likely outcome will be a small or modest swing against the government with Labor still retaining a narrow majority.

History is not on Labor’s side but if they’re able to get a fourth term and will not be a good look for the LNP. I think the assessments above make sense to be but that is only if the Liberal party stops infighting. The only thing I would say is I think Labor will more likely get a ttp of 52 or 53 and I think Eureka has too big of a margin for Labor to overcome instead maybe Glen Waverley given the Liberal leanings of the area and how established it is?

New Resolve poll out today – which has by far been the most Liberal-friendly polling series in Victoria – has the following primary votes:
ALP – 32
LIB – 33

They conducted the poll in two halves, in July Labor’s primary vote was 30 and in August it was 34.

There’s a clear reversal of the 2024 trend happening. In 2024, Labor’s primary vote went from 33 to 28 to 27 and then down to a low of 22 in January 2025 (just before the byelections).

Since then, it has trended the other way, to 24 in March, 30 in July and 34 in August.

The Liberal primary vote has obviously done the opposite, going from 35 to 37 to 38 to a high of 42 in January 2025; then down to 41 in March and back to 33 (lower than 2022 election) in the July/August set.

Compared to the 2022 election, the current polling has Labor down -3.7 and Liberals down -1.5, with Greens up 1.5 and others up 3.7. I had thought that 2025/26 would be much better for Labor than 2023/24 were and it appears to be playing out that way with Resolve, Newspoll & Redbridge polls all showing a significant rebound for Labor.

Based on these trends, I think you’re right SpaceFish that Eureka might be a stretch too far for the Liberals. I included that (instead of lower margin seats like Glen Waverley & Bayswater) because I am hearing that there is a lot more anger at Labor in the regions than in Melbourne, and they seem to be holding up very well in the eastern suburbs in particular.

Yes, I did see the new poll for today and I wonder if 2024 was Labor’s low point? It will be interesting to see if Labor continues to rebuild its primary vote and ttp from here. I think what will assist Labor is a bunch of the projects it started in it’s first and second term are finishing up so the public will get to see and use pieces of infrastructure which might quell the discontent towards the government.

Yeah I think that will be a big factor. Even for people who aren’t directly benefited by the West Gate Tunnel and Metro Tunnel, just having all the construction completed and seeing the finished products I think does a lot in terms of perception. Firstly the delays & inconveniences are gone, secondly you’re seeing something shiny & new that was promised and has been delivered, thirdly the capital costs for those projects come off the books (part of why the operating budget is forecast to shift into surplus) which at least waters down the debt/deficit concerns a little bit.

I definitely think 2024 was a low point for Labor in Victoria. It was everything at once: maximum projects in progress but not yet completed at the same time, maximum operating deficit, resignation of dominant leader, cancellation of Commonwealth Games, federal Labor also at their least popular which has a compounding effect, and cost of living issues (interest rates / inflation) at their worst, while at the same time the Victorian Liberals had their most popular/moderate leader in more than a decade.

It’s very hard to see that same perfect storm of conditions matching that in 2026, when you have major projects opening, budget forecast to shift into surplus, interest rates & inflation reducing, and the Labor brand riding high at a federal level while the Victorian Liberals are suing each other and federally the Liberal brand has taken a beating after their historic election wipeout.

More Liberal infighting
Brad Battin assuming the leadership as not brought unity.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fresign-now-lib-boss-demands-rivals-quit%2Fnews-story%2Fb6d9ef5854bd73a748d54a6868d39e9c&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=LOW-Segment-1-SCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append

This is the Liberals major problem, if they can’t sort themselves out then they risk going backwards again.

Great to see the next set of election guides available.

Labor will have notched up 12 years by election day 2026. Seeking a fourth term is a big ask. I expect Labor to lose seats. It’s odd to see a major party increase their seat count at four elections in a row. Those in outer suburban and regional areas, like Bass and Ripon, are most at risk.

Resolve reports that Labor’s primary vote jumped from 22 in January to 32 and surpassing LNP more recently. The latest Newspoll shows Labor ahead on 53/47. Part of it could be the halo effect from federal Labor where their post-election honeymoon is boosting state Labor’s brand.

Brad Battin started the year with a bang as the Liberals won the Prahran by-election and almost won Werribee. I recently read that he’s facing pressure due to bad polling numbers and his inability to cut through. His handling of the Moira Deeming and John Pesutto saga is unsettling to some insiders.

Battin is cutting through in the wrong ways, however. He seems to be making the news more for sensational activities than solid policy proposals. Labor’s WFH appears to be popular, and the Liberals don’t have a solid answer. Battin seems to be trying to make crime a focus, but holding a press conference at a fresh stabbing is creepy. The rural areas seem to be swinging to the Liberals, but the suburbs are drifting back to Labor. All this talk of replacement – 7News had an online story running down all the potential replacements, including positing the idea that Pseutto has an outside chance. I hope that the state Liberals do not fall into the trap that some of the Federal Liberals did in the last election.

I agree that Craig that Brad Battin seems to be good at appearing when something goes wrong like a violent crime incident or where there is cost blowout/major delay on a major project but he does not really have any policies. A campaign on Crime will not work in areas with very low crime rates such as Monbulk, Eltham, Bellarine and Macedon which are among the safest places in the nation. We saw that in the Queensland election where a focus on crime did not resonate in Brisbane City Council electorates.

History isn’t on Labor side and if Allen can get Labor a fourth term then she’ll definitely go down as a Labor legend within the party. It almost feels like the media enjoys leadership changes and pressures the party to so and they oblige.

The impression is that the Liberal Party are highly fractured and that there are probably a large of individuals that will not speak to each other unless being forced to. This seems to be happening on both ideological and personal grounds. Unless there is more happening behind the scenes than we know, then Brad Battin would seem not to have the authority and respect to pull it together.
Besides that, there is some serious dead wood that has hung around too long and need to make way – Kim Wells and Bev Macarthur for starters possibly even Michael O’Brien and Matthew Guy, and who knows who is who in the upper house.

While Labor seems to be improving Melbourne they seem to be going backwards in the county and regional centres. There is a scenario where metro Melbourne doesn’t change or very little but the country violently swings against the government.

I believe Labor will maintain a hold in much of metro Melbourne but slip in outer suburban (mainly western and SE Melbourne) and the regions. I would not be surprised if Labor targets some inner-city seats like Richmond, Hawthorn, Melbourne or Prahran. This is to try to offset likely losses and also to capitalise on a Liberal civil war and to see if they can gain inner-city voters from the Greens.

Yes i think they will gain Richmond for sure then maybe Melbourne. Hawthorn definitely not . The area is strongly anti labor they only won in 2018 on the back of a massive statewide swing. Teal or greens will win hawthorn before labor i think over the next few elections

Richmond is perhaps the lowest hanging fruit for Labor in the inner metro. It almost certainly will be a two way contest but this time, the Liberal preferences will go to Labor ahead of the Greens. Melbourne would be a longer shot. Prahran is a three way contest whilst Hawthorn could be one as well depending on if a teal independent will nominate.

One thing to remember is that major party vote is much lower especially among GenZ and younger millenials so among the 25-34 year demographic which is high in Hawthorn i think the Teal will outpoll Labor. In 2022 despite a sitting Labor member the Teal outpolled Labor in all booths along Glenferrie Road and Cambewell junction where the median age is lower.

Hypothetical scenario. The greens win 8 seats labor 37. And form minority do the greens ask for portfolios and or the deputy premier?

I dont Labor will give them that they will dare them to vote for a no confidence motion that Libs will put forward. Unlike Tasmania Victoria as more Green Left voters specially in the Inner North so if Greens vote for a no confidence motion i think there will be riots in Brunswick etc. As Labor is incumbent Westminister conventions are that Labor can stay in government until a no confidence motion is passed.
I think Greens will get some policy concessions for exampe money for Bike Paths, LGBT festivals, expansion of national parks, some tram extentions they may get input on the 2040 emissions target as well. Labor may also agree that all Buses will have to be electric and maybe emergency services vehicles as well.

Still I think the libs best chances at destabilizing the govt for a 2030 win is to eliminate what’s his name in Niddrie. I’m not sure on Jacinta Allen she’s probably the libs best ally ATM.

@ John
i have caled out before that Niddrie is a seat that Labor could be concerned about but they are fine in the two Narre Warren seats.

Really this should be the year the libs won govt but they screwed up badly In 2022. And not only failed to win seats but lost some.

If the Coalition can equal their 2014 result and make a net gain of 9 seats, it would be a remarkable turnaround. Note that the Liberals will likely lose Prahran. The Liberals will have to target Labor seats because the Greens seats aren’t winnable. Parties very rarely gain over 10 seats but being half-decent and disciplined at least helps.

I can see 11 seats tbh. There are others but libs would need to improve in the polls

Also don’t you mean 2010? They lost seats in 2014

Yes, I know they lost in 2014. I meant if they can get the same number of seats as the 2014 election which was 38 out of 88. Currently they’re very far off.

if the libs are gonna win bendigo east but not govt they would want to win Niddrie as well that pushes them alot closer for 2030 and decapitates the labor leadership. meaning labor will be forced to have it out in public over who takes power

@John – Wouldn’t the Nationals be going for Bendigo East considering their positive results in the federal seat?

@james when i i say libs i mean the coalition so yes

New polling
Liberals are behind in the TPP. Labor is doing well among CALD communities in outer suburbs.
TPP in Outer suburbs is 52% for Labor while it is 54% in Inner and Middle Suburbs
A lot of increase in the Libs vote is in rural seats

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=HSWEB_WRE170_a_FBK&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fnews%2Fvictoria%2Fallan-labor-government-extends-lead-on-coalition-in-race-to-polls-as-voters-shift-toward-minor-parties-and-independents%2Fnews-story%2Fca732c4be8447edba6cc8a629714bb6e&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=ULTRALOW-Segment-1-SCORE

Not a great look for the Liberals however, let’s not jump the gun here as the next state election is sometime away. It’s worth noting that everyone was widely expecting John Brumby to win in 2010 and he was leading with a wider margin for the most part more than Labor is now.

It’s possible that the Coalition gets a higher statewide 2PP but misses out on government. A possible case is that the swings to the Coalition happen in either rural Coalition seats or in safe ‘red wall’ Labor seats in the outer suburbs e.g. western suburbs. The difference between 2010 and 2026 is that the vote in many seats will be heavily fractured between minor parties and independents and not all of them are friendly to one side or the other.

Redbridge’s breakdown by region shows Labor’s low support in rural areas and the outer suburbs. Kos Samaras wrote that the Coalition needs a huge breakthrough of a 7% 2PP swing or 52-53% of the 2PP in metro Melbourne to win government.

The election will be a good time for the libs to show they can win votes in outer suburban working class seats especially in the West. Seats overlapping federal seats of McEwen Hawke Gorton

@ Darth Vader
Seats overlapping with McEwan
1. Yan Yean-prime target
2. Macedon-not in play socially progressive
3. Eltham not in play-socially progressive
4. Eildon-already Liberal held.
5. Kalkallo-margin too big more CALD

Seats overlapping with Hawke
1. Melton-Prime Target
2. Sunbury-Prime Target
3. Eureka-Prime Target

Seats overlapping with Gorton
1. Niddrie-Prime Target
2. Kororiot- Margin too big
3. St Albans very poor seat. Libs primary collapsed and the Greens outpolled Libs in many booths
4.Sydenham-Strech target possible but margin is big. Labor maybe able to sandbag this

That gives 5 Prime Target (one of which is a regional seat)and 1 stretch target-Sydenham

I dont think they will win the 2 Narre Warren seats i think Cranbourne is a strech as well.

Hopefully we’ll get some individual seat polling I’d be keen to see how the sand belt seats are holding up for Labor along with the clay wall seats. I’m well aware that individual polling isn’t always accurate but it would still be interesting regardless.

The lowest margin in the sandbelt is 8% so that seems like a stretch to me. Even if Labor’s vote isn’t holding up well, an 8% swing is almost certain to be above the statewide average, and it’s hard to see how the sandbelt will swing harder than average against Labor when it is one of the most well serviced areas with some of the best infrastructure, lowest crime and highest quality of life. In other words there is a lot less cause for anger or feeling neglected than there is in seats like Melton or Yan Yean.

@ Trent
Sandbelt especially the bayside ones tend to be very irreligious, socially progressive as well. Support for SSM and Voice.
Monbulk, Eltham and Macedon also have high quality of life, extremely low crime and socially progressive.

Agree Trent, the sand belt and middle ring suburbs of Melbourne are the ones that have benefitted the most from the strong, public transport centered infrastructure program that Dan Andrews and Labor have implemented (level crossing removals and more frequent, reliable train services with the Metro tunnel opening)

I’m not sure if this will also translate to potentially reduced swings in the outer southeast (seats like Cranbourne, Pakenham and the Narre Warren area).

@ Yoh an
The swings in the Narre Warrens will be lower for that reason. In Cranbourne, there is the issue of the Clyde Rail extention which is why it may have a slightly higher swing than than Narre Warren but i still think Labor will hold on.

the libs can still maek inroads in naree warren its a good target seat for future

@ John
I think there area is not settled now and not mortage belt anymore also the area is about 14% Muslim. The Sandbelt is very Anglo on the other hand. Bentleigh has a Jewish/Greek community but those demographics are more likely to vote for Liberal than Muslims and people of non European heritage. Also there is nothing in the Narre Warren that needs to be delivered in terms of Road, new Schools, Rail extentions etc.

in essence the Liberals missed the bus on the Narre Warrens and i think it is too late now.

* is settled

Is Greenvale in play?

@ Nicholas
Nether Portal calculated on Federal Results

TCP:

* Labor: 57.5%
* Independent (Carly Moore): 42.5%

TPP:

* Labor: 67.2%
* Liberal: 32.8%

Labor did 10.1% better in Greenvale on the federal level in 2025 than on the state level in 2022, though it’s probably better to compare it with the 2022 federal election.TPP (2022):

* Labor: 64.4%
* Liberal: 35.6%

So in 2025 there was a +2.8% swing to the Liberals in Greenvale on the federal level compared to 2022.
NP’s comments
With all this put into context it’s highly unlikely the Liberals will even put up a fight in Greenvale let alone win it. Greenvale itself is more marginal but without Greenvale itself this is a classic working-class Red Wall seat.

From myself
Also need to factor Gaza and an increased vote for Victorian Socialist who did well last time as well which was before October 7. Libs did not increase primary vote signficantly last time eventhough Labor lost 18% primary.

Interesting. I guess Greenvale is quite a bit different from the other seats you mentioned. It’s a mix of affluent areas and “red wall”, whereas the seats you mentioned are more homogeneously outer suburban areas where the Labor vote is potentially soft.

Greenvale (suburb) is affluent but politically it is marginal. Meadow Heights which is the neighbouring suburb is very poor with a SEIFA score of 3. In 2018, Labor got 87% in the Meadow Heights booth. Meadow Heights is 50% Muslim. Roxburgh is also low SES.
Thats why i say Libs cannot be party of Dover Heights (50% Jewish) and Meadow Heights and they must decide.
In Essence even if Libs get 55% TPP in Greenvale booths it will be swamped by Labor booths in poor areas.

At this point in 2009, Brumby lead Baillieu 57-43 in TPP and 52-27 as preferred premier. Anything could still happen.

Plus, the Redbridge poll still has Liberals holding up decently in Melbourne on 2PP (46% in inner suburbs and 48% in outer suburbs) and with immigrant (45%) and non-English speaking voters (47%), in spite of the Price debacle.