We now have a quiet period following the federal election and the Tasmanian election, and I’m using it as an opportunity to complete my election guides for the elections next in the queue.
The South Australian election guide has already been published for some time, but today I’ve published my Victorian election guide.
The Victorian election will be held in November 2026, so that is 15 months from now.
The guide features profiles of all 88 Assembly contests and the 8 Legislative Council regions. These profiles feature results tables, historical information and maps.
Most of the guide is exclusively available for Tally Room members. To become a Tally Room member, sign up as a donor for $8 or more per month via Patreon. Those of you who have been donating $5 or more for a while now are still grandfathered in with access (and if you have trouble with access let me know).
For those of you who are currently contributing – thank you so much. I wouldn’t be able to keep up this work without the support of donors on Patreon.
While there won’t be as much public attention on Australian elections over this year, there will still be plenty of stuff to do. We have redistributions in two Australian states and a territory, and a state redistribution in Queensland. A federal redistribution will be held in Queensland next year, and state redistributions will also take place for Western Australia and both territories.
I’m also hoping the downtime will create more space for things like history podcasts. Either way, your support will help balance out the cycle of interest in elections. If you find this work useful, please sign up.
To give you a taste of what is available, I’ve unlocked four profiles. I tried to pick a range of interesting contests:
- Mornington – a seat the Liberal Party barely held on to against an independent in 2022.
- Richmond – a seat the Greens hold in inner city Melbourne.
- Yan Yean – a marginal northern suburbs Labor seat – the kind of seat that has been becoming stronger for the Liberal Party relative to the rest of Victoria.
- Northern Metropolitan – this upper house region elected Adem Somyurek in 2022. It contains the Greens’ best areas but also outer suburban areas.
I am also planning to publish a guide to the NSW state election later this year, and a partial guide for the next federal election, covering the 100 electorates unaffected by redistribution. Those will be fully available for $8+ Patreon donors.
At the last election Libs only achieved around 41.5% in Melbourne
The 2010 Coalition victory was a narrow one. The differences in statewide 2PP and seat count were the narrowest so far this century.
There may be some “halo effect” where the people’s perception of the federal government influences the perception of the state government and vice versa. In late 2009, the Rudd government was fairly popular. The growing unpopularity of the Gillard government in late 2010 was cited as a factor in state Labor’s election loss. When the Vic Coalition government lost in 2014, Abbott’s unpopularity was cited as a factor.
@ Votante
I think Gillard role in the 2010 loss is overblown. I think what killed Victorian Labor in 2010 was their failure to realise that community expectations around Public Transport was rising. Starting in 2005, the Age ran a series focusing on public transport and the poor state of PT, patronage rose during that period and people demanded better services. Even in the 2007 Federal election the Federal Coalition started to run ads linking Kevin Rudd to transport minister Peter Batchelor. The PTUA became more visable, i think PT is what killed the Bracks/Brumby era it was the reason i voted Liberal at the 2010 state election. I think Daniel Andrews who was on the ABC election panel that night learnt that PT had to be a focus, that is why state Labor is very focused on Metro Tunnel, Level Crossing removals etc they see it as a vote winner.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/on-the-right-track-20050822-ge0qhn.html- An article from 2005
It’s quite common for political reporters to link state election results with federal factors. Federal oppositions also do the same and will pin the blame on the federal governing party for their side’s station election loss. Correlation doesn’t imply causation.
From 2010 to 2013 when Gillard was the PM, state Labor lost state elections in Vic, NSW and QLD. On the topic of infrastructure and transport, in NSW’s case, Labor lost in 2011 following broken promises on PT and ailing infrastructure among other reasons. Labor also lost due to hubris, corruption scandals, constant leadership spills and impulsive and controversial privitisation policies.
@Votante, Labor also lost control of the NT during that time.
Agree Votante/Nimalan, many losses at the state level can be pinned down to lack of action on public transport infrastructure development. The one term losses by Dennis Napthine in Victoria 2014 and Campbell Newman in Queensland 2015 could partly be attributed to their ‘do nothing’ attitude towards PT infrastructure projects.
The same would also be true for Colin Barnett in WA 2017, he cancelled/pulled funding from the Ellenbrook line which Mark McGowan later committed to and there were controversies surrounding the Perth freight link and its route through the sensitive Beilliar wetlands.
NP, I think the loss in NT 2012 was manly caused by anger in remote communities against the federal intervention by Rudd/Gillard. They had pledged to remove Howard era restrictions and allow more self-determination which they didn’t end up following through with.
This is in contrast to their subsequent 2024 defeat which was mostly due to anger against poor services and high crime in the urban areas (mainly Darwin).
@ Yoh an
I think the “do nothing” aproach of the Napthine government is what led to their defeat more than Abbott. The NSW Coalition government at the same time got the ball rollling. I would go further and say the biggest flaw of the NSW Labor governemnt from 1995-2011 was their inability deliver PT project such as north west rail link etc. This hurt Federal Labor as well in 2010 especially in NSW seats.
If the Liberals fail to unseat the Labor government in Vic next year, it won’t be because of the popularity or unpopularity of the Federal government. Up until recently, Vic Labor was tired and listless, but they seem to have stabilized things over the summer, especially with their WFH policy. Now it is the Liberals that appear lethargic. Battin said he was open to it, but then he expressed concern that business wouldn’t tolerate it. Then, of course, there is the infighting and the near-constant mugging for the cameras at crime scenes. The Federal Liberals having their backs against the wall is not going to help, but voters will look past that. Considering almost everyone thought that Vic Labor Party would pull down the Federal Labor Party candidates, which clearly did not happen. WFH is wildly popular among < 40-year-olds, the exact voters a party needs for the future.
The Brumby Government loss in 2010 was a surprise – and as events showed a complete surprise to Ted Baillieu. They were not prepared and by the time they got going the Geoff Shaw antics basically ate them alive. They did start level crossing removals but very slowly – remember Daniel Andrews only did it as he had the funds from the Port of Melbourne sale. Methinks that if the Libs proposed that – Andrews would have screamed blue murder. Also if it had been a few years later without a sale Andrews would have done it anyway considering the subsequent cavalier attitude to debt. In the week before 2010 there were a whole lot of transport disruptions and I recall thinking to myself (whilst sitting on a delayed train) if it would make a difference. Now of course with early voting late events don’t make a difference. As for Julia Gillard, she was always pretty popular in Victoria so I don’t think it made a difference. She probably made no difference in NSW or Qld either – old tired governments past their ‘use by’ date with oppositions ready to go.
Nimalan
NSW in 2011 was all due to an overwhelming stench of corruption and lots of shady shenanigans. They did seem incapable of getting anything done as they were consumed by infighting as well. Kristina Kenneally was a poltical disaster – whose unattractiveness to voters was proven again and again.
Further to @redistibuted’s point Gillard did not really start to loose popularity until Feb 2011 when Carbon Tax annoucement was made. The second hald of 2010 was pretty uneventful federally. I actually thought there was a chance back in 2010 that Brumby would loose due to PT. By late 2000s people started to complain about Connex etc. Ballieu did remove two level crossings in Mitcham and one in Springvale but i think that was seen as a drop in the ocean by 2014 and Abbott refusing to fund Metro tunnel may have hurt Napthine as well.
@ Redistributed no disagreement that the scandals you mention was a major reason for the landslide defeat. However, the fact they could deliver infrastructure to a growing city did hurt them. By 2011, i think there was really no purpose in being in government for NSW Labor so they just focused on themselves. Morris Iemma’s downfall was caused by his desire to privatise electricty assets to fund infrastcuture just like Dan Andrews did to fund level crossing removals. When the party conference opposed it it led to a chain of events. There was a four corners documentary- that showed this
Labor had no choice but to replace Gillard because all the libs had to do was run the clip of Julia Gillard saying “there will be no carbon tax under the government that I lead” over and over. Just like the demo had to replace Biden because after months of trying to hide his cognitive decline he did it publicly at the first debate. All the republicans would have needed to do was just create a clip show of these and run them back to back
@ John
To be Fair, if the Greens passed the CPRS then there will be no Carbon tax and Rudd would have led Labor to the 2010 election.
Doubtful Rudd wasn’t toppled because if cprs. He was dumped because he was a micro manager and his party hated him, he was Dumped because he would get angry and blow his top.
Here is how a 2032 redistribution might work
1) One new seat in Northern Melbourne suburb around the new housing estate
2) One new seat in Western Suburb with splitting Laverton into two seats being the best candidate
3) South of the River, one new seat around the new housing estate in Casey but also one seat that would be abolished (best merger candidate would be Oakleigh/Clarinda or Ringwood/Croydon)
* Does not include seats that could be renamed
The Brumby government wasn’t deeply unpopular as you can see how close the results were and from memory he was preferred premier but I think voters had incumbency fatigue and the Liberals campaigned heavy on the public transport along the sand belt which cut through.
Brumby wasn’t too unpopular. Whilst a swing to the Libs and Nats was expected, the size of it took people by surprise. There was talk of a hung parliament on election night in 2010. As I mentioned before, this was the narrowest victory this century. In 2010, the larger-than-average swings were in the Sandbelt seats and in the east (Burwood, Mount Waverley).
Flipping the Sandbelt seats (Frankston, Mordialloc, Carrum, Bentleigh) in 2026, like the Libs did in 2010, would be much harder. The margins are now over 8%. They aren’t low hanging fruit for the Libs and there are at least a dozen Labor seats on lower margins.
@marh I think the most likely outcome is a new seat in the north west around sydneyham,Werribee. Abolished of a seat in the e/se likely Mulgrave. The leftoverin Casey then helps absorb the defeceit
If you add up all the surplus in the west between kalkallo,eureka and bellarine. You get about a seats worth of quota. Therefore it makes sense to create a seat somewhere in the centre. The defeceit south of the yarra is spread from South Bank to the mornington peninsula up to Dandenong Monash and whitehorse. The centre of which is Mulgrave. Which is also the most under quota seat in that area. Also the redistribution would be for the 2030 election. I’m also wanting to split up Bass and recreate west gippsland. Using the bass coast and parts of sg. Which can absorb parts of morwell into narracan which can move into cardinia to soak up some of that excess. Bass is currently made up of 3 different lgas. Casey is split across 7 seats and cardinia to when it would probably fit into 6 and 5 at most respectively
Marh
Redistribution will be in the next term. It was before 2022 election.
Just correcting my last post where cardinia is spread across 5 seats currently but it should fit in 4
In regards to the sandbelt seats I don’t think that will happen and I think the redistribution will make them safer for labor. There are some seats that despite the relatively low 8% margins will just never flip as there aren’t enough liberal or swing voters to flip the seat barring some major scandal or govt collapse. They’d be better off focusing in regional seats like wendouree and Bendigo East where they had some inroads federally despite the poor liberal campaign
@ John
I agree with Eureka, Bendigo East and Ripon as prime targets but not Wendouree as i pointed out previously it is entirely urban no emergency levy, powerlines will not have an impact it requires a 11%swing. Maybe Libs can get a 8.5% swing but that is not enough. Sydenham is a dark horse due to local issues but Greenvale will not flip to Libs not enough Liberal or swing voters there.
Still an 8.5% swing will be seen as a win for the libs. It puts it in that sweet zone that they can easily target in 2030. Federally I think the libs can win Ballarat too. Especially if Catherine King retires
The Federal seat of Ballarat is easier than the state seat of Wendouree as it has a rural component which Wendouree does not.
Still it’s a part that’s been neglected and taken for granted by Labor. Also remember they were promised the Commonwealth games and then reneged
In regards to ripon it won happen this time but it will probably lose the Grampians london and Ararat eventually and become the second ballarat seat. Currently ballarat is split between ripon wendouree and eureka you could probably fit it into 2 seats.
I can see a 5th Geelong seat being created from the current excess of the current 4 seats – likely to go higher – plus the Surf Coast end of Polwarth plus Lethbridge and the eastern end of Golden Plains Shire. Either Murray Plains or Ovens Valley might need to be abolished. Or possibly Ripon as it has become the bits and pieces seat.
If you push all the excess north by shrinking the seat you form a seat around Melton/sydneyham. Not ned to abolish either and it wouldn’t work because they aren’t that under quota
I think that excess will force Lara to become entirely urban in the geelong area. Possibly with parts of golden plains. Then if you take the non urban parts of Lara and Werribee you’ll get a seat that will probably centre on little river which is my plan. That seat would be entirely winnable for the libs
I was looking at Malvern which needs to gain voters, as do Albert Park, Prahran and Caulfield. I was picturing the northern boundary being pushed up Glenferrie Rd, to Riverdale Rd, then running the boundary across to Auburn Rd, then along Auburn Rd meeting up with existing boundary, Hawthorn would then need to be pushed eastwards towards Union Rd which is also the federal electorate boundary.
I was looking at these seats last week, Albert Park is current growing at 54 per electors per month compared to the state average of 61. It needs to grow by around 2,000 voters which I believe can be fixed by taking South Melbourne out of Prahran (currently about 2,757 electors)
However Prahran is growing at only 8 electors per month and if the southern boundary is set a Dandenong Rd, the bits to the south can go to Caulfied and Prahran can push eastwards for the majority of Stonnington
Ashwood, can be moved out of the municipality of Boroondara which should be able to contain all of Kew and Hawthorn
Ashwood can then pick up (on rough boundaries Malvern Valley and Hedley Dean wards of Stonnington or they could go to Oakleigh
Just out of interest Hawthorn is growing at 26 electors per month, Kew is going backwards by 7 per month, Caulfield is gaining 31 per month, Ashwood 24 per month, Oakleigh 56 per month
Malvern is already bordered quite nicely by Symington so prahan would be better moving southward into st kilda
I believe that Malvern has a Hugh problem with under enrollment
When the redistribution committee starts the next redistribution, I believe the average seat quota will be around 54,400 and the projection of trend period (7 years) will be around 58,828, based on current average growth
Malvern at the equivalent dates will be around 49,012 and 50,582 so will need to find a lot of electors to make average. The area of Prahran east of Williams road would get Malvern there but moving Prahran south will have create problems for Brighton and Caulfied
At the moment Southern Metro in the next redistribution is going to need to find around 55,000 electors to make it to average, while some can come Southeastern, they wont have many to spare so either the Commission will ahve to move into North eastern or Northern Metro
If a seat is abolished in the southeast, then Oakleigh would likely move east and lose Murrumbeena, which lets Caulfield move east into Murrumbeena, which honestly fits better with Caulfield than Oakleigh, and probably fits better in Caulfield than Balaclava does.
Then Malvern could take Prahran East, and Prahran could move south to take Balaclava & Ripponlea (while sending its portion of Southbank / South Melbourne back to Albert Park). Prahran then becomes very much focused on both the Sandringham Lane from South Yarra to Ripponlea as well as the 78 tram so there are good transport links, and similar demographics the whole way down too, and Balaclava & Ripponlea fit very well with the portions of St Kilda & St Kilda East that are already in Prahran.
Which can be solved by moving Bentleigh eastwards.
This would make prahan unwinnable for the libs and it would likely be a grn
The scotch part of Hawthorn has more in common with Malvern/Toorak than Prahran East has in common with Malvern, and by shifting the Scotch area into Malvern enables the VEC to accommodate the purposed dentification in Hawthorn, Auburn and Camberwell Junction without shifting Ashwood too far westward into Boroondara, and as Captain Moonlight said, you could take Ashwood out of Boroondara.
A Clarinda/Mulgrave merger seems to be the best candidate which could allow much of the western part of Greater Dandenong council to unite in one seat and both seats currently don’t have strong community of interest (especially with Clarinda have three distinct areas separated by the Green Wedge)
I cant see a seat in South east Metro being abolished, as a province it already has 7,882 electors over average enrollment and is on track to be 10,302 over average at the end date of projections of 1 July 2026. This compares to projected of 1,509 under average by the last redistribution committee
Southern Metro on the other hands is 19,679 currently under average and is on target to be 21,627 under average compared to a projection of 7,712 under, by the redistribution committee
I can see the easiest way of fixing this is to take the Monash council part of Glen Waverly which I see as the first seat being abolished
the best seat to abolish is still Mulgrave. its the most under quota seat on that side of melbourne.
in regards to prahran/albert park simply move albert apark to punt road. malvern can then take the parts in the north probably at toorak road and then take the part of port phillip from caufield and move into albert parks tail as needed if thats over.
the current quota is 52k
Latest state poll is from DemosAU.
2PP – Coalition 51% Labor 49%. Primary votes are as follows: Coalition 38% Labor 26% Greens 15%.
https://demosau.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/DemosAUPremierNational-Release-Victorian-Poll-September-25-1-1.pdf
Breakdowns are pretty good for the Coalition, 53% TPP in Outer Melbourne seats would definitely pick up a lot
Labor probably still win on those numbers though.
The 2 biggest issues crime and cost of living will play the liberals benefit 49% if you include debt and govt performance they’re at 2/3. Labor’s strengths play to about 14% of the electorate
DemosAU final poll for May was: 31/33/12 Lab Lib Grn and 52/48 Labor 2PP. 2PP in Vic 53/47 Labor.
Actuals: 34.56/31.82/12.2 Lab Lib Grn. 56.35/43.65 2PP Vic. Take that for what it is worth.
While this poll shows improvement for the libs I still can’t see the 17 seats materializing.
The election is still a fair way off and a lot can happen between now and November, however this isn’t encouraging news for the Liberals.
Short of a labor collapse i can’t see the libs getting enough seats. Though it certainly isn’t impossible. the best they can probably hope for is forcing them into minority with the greens. A 2030 win is probably more reasonable.