Cook – Queensland 2024

Lui should be pretty safe.

KAP have announced their first official candidate for the election with Bruce Logan (former special forces soldier).

Full article here: https://kap.org.au/bruce-logan-launched-as-kaps-voice-for-cook/

Makes sense for KAP to target here with this electorate being the strongest primary vote out of their current 3 seats held and a higher than the Townsville seats. The very southern end of this electorate, Mareeba Shire Council area, overlaps with Bob Katter’s federal seat of Kennedy. I wonder if this will force the LNP hand here to announce a candidate earlier, considering their current early pre-selections in other seats.

@NQ View – ALP Vote has hovered around 40% the past 3 elections. I would consider her safe for now but any drop below that 40% leaves her vulnerable. Still a year to go, but if polling worsens, anything could happen! *EDIT: In fact, the only time the ALP vote dropped below 40% in this electorate (since 1969) was in 2012 when they lost the seat to LNP and 1974 to the Nationals. Ok, as you were, in the pretty safe assessment.

Im thinking this needs a rename come post election redistribution

@ John Maybe this seat could be named Mabo. The seat is represented by a Torres Strait Islander and probably the most indigenous seat in the state

Why would this seat need a rename?

Mabo probably does deserve his own seat though. I think we should also have seats named after other icons, like a Sunshine Coast seat called Irwin. I also think Don Bradman and Johnny Warren should get their own seats, especially because Warren is (or was) a common surname so many people could be called “Warren”.

@mether portal not only does it share a name with a federal division but the namesake is the same too

It’s been reported that Michael Kerr (Mayor-Douglas Shire) is considering a tilt at this seat and has been in ‘conversations’ to contest. Possible LNP Candidate?

given this district shares oth a namesake and name with the federal division il be proposing a name change at the next redistribution. a name that comes to mind is Torres Strait

Weird name for a seat that includes so many areas that aren’t the Torres Strait.

@raue its a significant geographic location and wouldnt move out of the division

another suggestion could be Cape York

Why not call it Mabo?

@wilson I prefer to use place names at a state level and names of people federally. All states bar the nt and qld use place or geographic names and I prefer consistency

Cape York is perhaps a better name. I don’t like the doubling-up of state and federal electorate names like Cook or Bass. I prefer large electorates to be named after geographical features, not necessarily town or suburb names.

@John, SA is full of electorates named after people. I think most are. There’s the odd one or two in other states that are named after people e.g. Heffron in NSW.

@votante Yea I’m the same. Yes and it helps avoid confusion. Especially when they are named for the same thing/person. That was the name I was gonna suggest but I had a memory blank so mentioned the secondary name.

Mabo would be an entirely suitable name for a federal electorate when the house is next expanded, and I imagine it will largely take over the vast majority of the area of the current Leichhardt, which would then become a coastal FNQ seat stretching from the south of Cairns to the north of Townsville, of course depending on how the numbers shake out.

The other names suggested wouldn’t be adopted. It would be akin to naming the electorate Port Douglas or Mossman, to name but two other geographical entities within the electorate.

@nq most likely Leichhardt would stay in the Cape York division and Mabo would be in the area you just described. They dont move an entire division into territory it doesn’t currently occupy.

I see no issue with the name, I don’t think there should be a fuss as it’s just a seat name and is a distraction from the real issues. Any objections to seat names should be followed to the AEC but unless the government actually passes a law so they can choose how seats are named, the AEC is unlikely to make any changes themselves.

@daniel you can suggest new seat names and give reasoning at the redistribution

@John I would think Mabo would be best reserved for the federal seat that the Torres Strait encompasses. Out of geographical necessity, a future Mabo seat would take the majority of the landmass of Leichhardt, and possibly Kennedy too (Atherton Tablelands). The majority of Leichhardt electors already live in Cairns, hence keeping the name Leichhardt for that seat would be fine. Leichhardt used to run all the way down to Ingham as far as I can remember, upon its creation in 1949.

Due to the voice failing, this seat stays Labor. LNP pretty much have no chance unless it’s a landslide and I expect the remote communities to swing hard against the LNP due to their stance on the failed referendum.

I don’t see Weipa going LNP, it’s a key area for them to win as it was 54-46 in 2017 (against PHON) don’t know the result in 2020 as poll bludgers map doesn’t work for that election anymore.

If an Indigenous political party (equivalent of the NZ Māori party) rises, this seat will be that parties best prospect of a seat.

Daniel,
The ECQ (Electoral Commission of Queensland) shows 2 candidate preferred vote and percentage by polling booth.
https://results.elections.qld.gov.au/state2020/cook/table/preference

@daniel t the voice was voted against 2:1 in Leichhardt so that makes no sense. By your argument lnp should get a swing towards them because of Labors stance on the voting yes in all of qld

Cook is not coterminous with Leichhardt. It contains all the Leichhardt booths that voted yes overall, but far fewer of the Cairns area booths that voted no overall. I haven’t done the calculations to see whether the Cook booths had a yes vote overall, but it will be a lot closer to a 50-50 split than Leichhardt was overall, that’s for sure.

@John
Seems like the booths in the state seat of Cook went way better for Yes in the referendum than the ones in Barron River or Cairns (both of which are definitely unsalvageable for Labor)

The recent referendum was defeated like all previous referenda that didn’t have bipartisan support.
There is no connection between Commonwealth referenda and state elections.
Barron River, Cairns and Cook are Labor held state seats and will remain so for a long time.

@watson exactly and by the time the election comes it will have been forgotten about, the people their are more concerned with the aftermath of jasper and the floods. lets see how that plays out

also watson all 3 were taken be the lnp in 2012 and are quite marginal so i wouldnt bank on it

I have a hard time seeing the referendum having much impact on the state election.

The impact of the voice referendum on subsequent elections is minimal. It’s not like the Brexit referendum or Scottish Independence referendum where their results are still having impacts and Brexit/Scottish independence are still key election issues several elections later.

Sure, there may be some who are disheartened by the referendum itself or the result and have permanently swayed them. If anything, it’s more likely that an LNP member has quit their party e.g. Ken Wyatt, Andrew Gee, than a Labor member has quit their party.

Anyone who votes against the lnp because of the result wasn’t voting for them anyway

if you want to see booth maps of the 2020 election, you could sign up on Patreon and get access to this very seat guide…

–Candidate Update–
ONP has chosen it’s candidate for COOK being Peter Campion
(Relevant Article: https://www.theexpressnewspaper.com.au/campion-to-contest-cook-2024-02-15)
This is the same Peter Campion that ran as UAP Candidate against Bob Katter in Kennedy at the 2022 Federal Election and as an IND Candidate against Shane Knuth in Hill at the 2020 Queensland Election.

ALP Incumbent MP Cynthia Lui confirms she’ll recontest.
(Relevant Article: https://capeyorkweekly.com.au/pdr-remains-key-issue-as-incumbent-mp-commits-to-working-hard-for-cape-york-if-re-elected/8022/)

KAP candidate has withdrawn due to recent family loss and damage from recent cyclone.
(Relevant Article: https://capeyorkweekly.com.au/kap-races-to-find-replacement-for-outstanding-candidate-in-cook-battle/8028/)

So this leaves currently:
ALP: Cynthia Liu (Incumbent)
ONP: Peter Campion
KAP: Withdrawn, to find a new candidate
LNP: Pre-selection ongoing

I’ve been reviewing my predictions from last election to see where and why I got things either wrong or close. Cook I originally as TOSS-UP (ALP Lean) until a couple of other commentators mentioned that the high number of right-wing candidates would split vote and cause ALP to win. Sure enough, that happened. Cook was unchanged in the redistribution in 2017, so we can go back to 2012 to really have a look at current trends to see where the seat is at now:

2012 Left-Wing Vote (ALP+GRN) 37.92%, Right-Wing Vote (LNP+ONP+KAP) 62.08%, 2PP 46.57 vs 53.43
2015 Left (ALP+GRN) 45.81%, Right (LNP+KAP+UAP) 52.86%, Unknown IND 1.33%, 2PP 56.77 vs 43.23
2017 Left (ALP+GRN) 46.90%, Right (LNP+ONP+KAP) 53.20%, 2CP 55.80 vs 44.20 [ONP]
2020 Left (ALP+GRN) 45.06%, Right (LNP+ONP+KAP+UAP+NQF+IND**) 54.93%, 2PP 56.26 vs 43.74
[**note IND was a former UAP Candidate for Senator in QLD at 2019 Federal Election, now running as Independent in Mulgrave. Due to UAP affiliation, have counted as right-wing for this assessment.]

As you can see, the right wing vote is clearly above the majority of votes in the electorate, but fracturing causes them to loose (and also, they [the right-wing parties] appeal to different voters, which can take voters off ALP but flow back after first preference). I had this done as 80% ALP Retain, 15% LNP Gain, 5% surprise KAP Gain, but with recent candidate selections, and past historical vote, really hard to see this anything other than a ALP Retain (February 2024 prediction).

@ Politics_Obsessed I don’t think the fractured right-wing vote is why the ALP continues to win here. As you said later in your post, those minor parties appeal to all sorts of different people and a not-insignificant amount of their supporters clearly prefer the ALP to the LNP when it comes time to decide their preferences. It’s not as simple as combining all the right-wing party votes together and all the left-wing party votes together and saying, “well clearly the right has a majority of support here.”

Former LNP member for Cook from 2012-15 David Kempton has been announced over Michael Kerr, could he win or will Campbell Newman’s shadow loom over him?

Caleb, I think most of the bad memories from Campbell Newman’s time as Premier have faded. Also, I believe David Kempton didn’t really serve in a key ministerial role unlike other newcomers such as current leader David Crisafulli and former leader Deb Frecklington.

@Caleb nobody really cares about Campbell Newman anymore. Queensland Labor campaigns on the LNP being like Newman and the fact sacked heaps of workers during his term all the time but nobody cares. The NSW Coalition didn’t campaign on Labor being corrupt like Labor was in its past government in the 2023 state election because that was a decade ago. The parties campaigned on other issues that were more relevant today because the parties had changed gears. It’s different about how the federal Coalition bring up Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard’s border policy when they criticise Anthony Albanese’s border policy because the situations are clearly similar. The LNP hasn’t mentioned sacking workers or any of their other mistakes that Newman made that led to the LNP narrowly losing in 2015 after just one term in government. Even NT Labor hasn’t mentioned Adam Giles when criticising the CLP in the lead-up to the NT general election in August this year, and unlike Newman who has been a member of the Libertarian Party (formerly the Liberal Democrats) since 2021, Giles is still a member of the CLP as far as I know.

I think this will be a Labor loss. It will fall to either kap or lnp

@Yoh an @Nether Portal Bjelke-Peterson’s Shadow was indefinite over his party when he left.

David Kempton was a decent local member when he did his time previously. It will be interesting to see how he goes. I doubt KAP will be close to finishing in the final two. Maybe 35-40 LNP, 30-35 ALP, ~30 others (KAP, ONP, Greens et al) on primary votes.

LNP won’t win this with a Newman candidate. And the voice the parliament failing will probably hurt them here (One of the few seats in QLD with a high indigenous population) and don’t give me ”indigenous voters didn’t support it” that is a lie from Sky News that seems to be repeated by LNP insiders.

I doubt an Indigenous woman is going to lose to a white man in a seat like this. Not that I endorse that. It should be merit. but gut feeling says the incumbent will narrowly scrape across.

@danuel t it almost happened in lingiari

Also notice the states with the highest indigenous population vote the most no?

Important to note that the indigenous communities in those states voted overwhelmingly yes John, it was the non-indigenous populations in those states that heavily voted no

@Daniel T the voice was far more of a Federal issue than a state issue, and Crisafulli allowed his members a conscience vote on it (and ofc he’s way more moderate than Dutton anyway). LNP to win this.

@John Yes, but most actual indigenous did vote yes (albeit I don’t believe that it was 80+% as the Yes campaign purported it to be, considering that it was 80% when the general population was 60% and the general population ended up being 40%). That’s simply a Sky After Dark talking point as Daniel points out.

@ John, I had considered this could be a LNP or KAP gain, but as per my post on Feb 26, the KAP candidate has withdrawn. They haven’t found a new candidate yet and has hampered there efforts. Expecting another LNP vs ALP battle unless KAP fields a ‘stronger candidate’…(yes tongue in cheek reference to Thuringowa!)

Exactly but I think given the small margin it will be a Labor loss i

@John yeah I agree with that. Labor’s only seats outside Brisbane or Ipswich will be Gladstone, (maybe) Mulgrave and (maybe) Maryborough.