Southern Metropolitan – Victoria 2022

Incumbent MLCs

• Georgie Crozier (Liberal), since 2010
• David Davis (Liberal), since 1996
• Enver Erdogan (Labor), since 2019¹
• Clifford Hayes (Sustainable Australia), since 2018
• Nina Taylor (Labor), since 2018

¹Enver Erdogan replaced Philip Dalidakis in August 2019 following Dalidakis’ resignation.

• Geography
• Redistribution
• History
• 2018 result
• Preference flows
• Candidates
• Assessment
• Booth breakdown
• Results maps

Geography

Southern Metropolitan region covers electorates immediately to the south and east of the Melbourne CBD, stretching as far south as Sandringham, and as far as east as Ashwood and Oakleigh.

The Liberal and Labor parties each hold five seats, with the Greens holding one.

Redistribution

Minor changes were made to the region’s eastern boundary, taking in Mount Waverley, the remainder of Balwyn and part of Burwood East from Eastern Metropolitan, and taking in the remainder of Clayton and Cheltenham and part of Oakleigh South from South Eastern Metropolitan. The region also lost Box Hill South and part of Burwood and Surrey Hills to North Eastern Metropolitan.

These changes increased the Labor vote and cut the Liberal vote.

History
The Southern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

In 2006, the ALP and Liberal Party each won two seats, and the fifth seat was won by the Greens.

In 2010, the Liberal Party won a third seat at the expense of the ALP. The 2010 result was repeated in 2014, with the Liberal Party holding three seats, while Labor and the Greens held one seat each.

The Greens lost their seat in 2018, and the Liberal Party lost one of their three seats. Labor gained a second seat, while Sustainable Australia won a seat.

2018 result

Preference flows
On primary votes, the Liberal Party and Labor each retained two seats.

Let’s fast-forward until there were eleven candidates running for the final seat. Sustainable Australia started on about 0.08 quotas and by this point had already climbed to 0.18.

• Sue Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.833 quotas
• Margaret Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.290
• Clifford Hayes (SUS) – 0.178
• Ben Schultz (AJP) – 0.134
• Jill Mellon-Robertson (RP) – 0.128
• Nikki Nicholls (DHJ) – 0.091
• Robert Kennedy (LDP) – 0.086
• Joel Van Der Horst (DLP) – 0.082
• Jane Morris (VEP) – 0.068
• Judith Armstrong (ALP) – 0.059
• Nicole Bourman (SFF) – 0.041

Most Shooters preferences flowed to Sustainable Australia:

• Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.834
• Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.292
• Hayes (SUS) – 0.211
• Schultz (AJP) – 0.135
• Mellon-Robertson (RP) – 0.128
• Nicholls (DHJ) – 0.092
• Kennedy (LDP) – 0.087
• Van Der Horst (DLP) – 0.082
• Morris (VEP) – 0.069
• Armstrong (ALP) – 0.060

Labor preferences scattered around, with the most votes going to the Greens and Reason:

• Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.848
• Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.294
• Hayes (SUS) – 0.213
• Schultz (AJP) – 0.143
• Mellon-Robertson (RP) – 0.140
• Nicholls (DHJ) – 0.092
• Kennedy (LDP) – 0.088
• Van Der Horst (DLP) – 0.083
• Morris (VEP) – 0.071

Voluntary Euthanasia preferences flowed to Reason:

• Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.852
• Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.295
• Hayes (SUS) – 0.216
• Mellon-Robertson (RP) – 0.191
• Schultz (AJP) – 0.145
• Nicholls (DHJ) – 0.095
• Kennedy (LDP) – 0.088
• Van Der Horst (DLP) – 0.084

DLP preferences mostly flowed to the Liberal Party:

• Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.853
• Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.370
• Hayes (SUS) – 0.218
• Mellon-Robertson (RP) – 0.192
• Schultz (AJP) – 0.146
• Nicholls (DHJ) – 0.096
• Kennedy (LDP) – 0.089

Liberal Democrats preferences flowed to Sustainable Australia:

• Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.854
• Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.374
• Hayes (SUS) – 0.296
• Mellon-Robertson (RP) – 0.193
• Schultz (AJP) – 0.146
• Nicholls (DHJ) – 0.097

Hinch preferences flowed strongly to Sustainable Australia:

• Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.857
• Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.377
• Hayes (SUS) – 0.372
• Mellon-Robertson (RP) – 0.196
• Schultz (AJP) – 0.149

Over two thirds of Animal Justice preferences flowed to Sustainable Australia:

• Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.867
• Hayes (SUS) – 0.487
• Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.379
• Mellon-Robertson (RP) – 0.207

Reason preferences flowed strongly to Sustainable Australia:

• Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.909
• Hayes (SUS) – 0.619
• Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.386

Liberal preferences elected Hayes over the sitting Greens MLC:

• Hayes (SUS) – 0.954
• Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.915

Candidates

• A – Clifford Hayes (Sustainable Australia)
• B – Krishna Dharmeshkumar Brahmbhatt (New Democrats)
• C – Natasha Kons (Freedom Party)
• D – Paul Tammesild (Transport Matters)
• E – Kellie Thomas (Health Australia)
• F – Nursin Akdogan (Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews)
• G – Marc Selan (Legalise Cannabis)
• H – Joan Molyneux (Companions and Pets)
• I – Chris Bradbury (One Nation)
• J – Theodore Tsiongas (Democratic Labour)
• K – Matthew Ford (Liberal Democrats)
• L – Andrew Johnson (Reason)
• M – Dean Hurlston (Angry Victorians)
• N – Nicole Bourman (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
• O – Katherine Copsey (Greens)

• P – Liberal
  1. David Davis
  2. Georgie Crozier
  3. Nick Stavrou
  4. Andrew Litwinow
  5. Monica Clark

• Q – Labor
  1. John Berger
  2. Ryan Batchelor
  3. Clive Crosby
  4. Lynn Psaila
  5. Muhammad Shahbaz
• R – Jack Todaro (Victorian Socialists)
• S – Leon Kofmansky (United Australia)
• T – Ben Schultz (Animal Justice)
• U – Ellie Jean Sullivan (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
• V – Vickie Janson (Family First)

Assessment
This region includes two safe Liberal seats and one Labor seat. In current circumstances it seems likely Labor will also retain their second seat, although if the Liberal Party recovered support they could regain a third seat.

While the Greens will likely be deprived of preferences again in 2022, it would take a relatively small swing to see them regain their seat.

There is also the potential for a smaller party to win a seat, but Sustainable Australia’s incumbent MLC isn’t a particularly strong position personally.

Regional breakdown
The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in the Southern Metropolitan region. The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in seven electorates, while Labor came first in four.

The Liberal vote ranged from 27.7% in Oakleigh to 48.4% in Malvern.

The Labor vote ranged from 27.6% in Malvern and 28.8% in Kew, all the way to 44.4% in Bentleigh and 46.9% in Oakleigh.

The Greens vote ranged from 8.4% in Bentleigh to 23.8% in Prahran.

Results of the 2018 Victorian upper house election in the Southern Metropolitan region

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