Prahran – Victoria 2022

Labor’s counter to such a scare campaign in that case writes itself – the Greens are only there because the Liberals put them there! (Of course that’s a somewhat disingenuous thing to say, but it would work.)

This is hard to pick
But despite the alp margin
On the new boundaries
I pick green retain but it
Is possible that Labor wins
Based on Lydia Thorpe’s problems

I’d estimate based on expected preference flows if the Libs do indeed preference the Greens, that in seats where the Liberal primary vote is around 20%, the Labor primary would have to drop below at least 43-44% for the Greens to win.

That represents about a -10% Labor swing in Footscray and Preston so I think they’d stay in Labor hands.

Pascoe Vale is harder to predict because if the high IND vote last time but could be in play.

Richmond & Northcote would definitely be Greens gains, and given Labor’s primary vote is only 43% already in Albert Park (with an expected swing against) that would fall too IF it becomes an ALP v GRN race.

I think Labor’s only chance in Prahran is an ALP v GRN count where the Liberals preference Labor. That’d be close to 50-50 I think.

I think we can rule out an ALP v LIB count because in 2018 the Greens underperformed and have surged since, Labor overperformed and are less popular since, and Labor don’t even seen to be trying here. So Greens won’t finish third.

Most likely outcome I think is still a GRN v LIB count (easy Greens win), and if the Liberals do fall to third but preference the Greens then that should be a closer but still comfortable Greens win over Labor.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the LNP preference the Greens ahead of Labor for tactical reasons. They did the same in South Brisbane at the last QLD state election. In Victoria, it’s their best chance to limit Labor’s net gains or maximise Labor’s net losses, and it doesn’t cost a cent and yet could influence the outcome. Them trying to turn the election into a referendum on Dan Andrews may keep this a Green seat.

The federal results showed that the Libs crashed in Higgins and Macnamara. I don’t think the Libs would be chasing votes in Prahran. Besides, the Libs struggle to get above 20% in inner Melbourne, north of the Yarra River, and Prahran may follow the same suit.

I believe that the Liberals are running a “Put Labor Last” campaign. I can’t remember where I saw this, but if they are, it would be to the benefit of the Greens in seats like this.

Greens hold, No contest, This is a SAFE Greens seat on 8%

@Daniel, the margin vs Lib is certainly safe but it’s misleading because the Greens were only 277 votes from being eliminated by Labor at the 3CP count last time, so the 2CP margin doesn’t reflect how close they actually were to elimination.

That said, I think there’s a general consensus that Labor won’t pass the Greens at the 3CP stage this time, as the Greens vote in the area has really surged in the 2 federal elections since.

But the risk for the Greens would have been the Libs falling to third, then if the Libs preferenced Labor the ALP v GRN count would be really close.

However, the Liberals running a “Put Labor last” campaign, if they back that up with their HTV cards, will lock in a safe Greens retain.

In Prahran in 2018, roughly 63% of AJP’s preferences went to the Greens. This helped push the Greens to overtake Labor in the distribution of preferences.

I’m surprised at how few candidates there are in this seat. So far, no Reason Party, no Victorian Socialists and no anti-Dan independents or “freedom” parties. The anti-Dan candidates are more concentrated in the western suburbs and northern suburbs and in Dandenong. From memory, UAP, ONP and LDP didn’t do too well at the federal election in Higgins and Macnamara.

It appears that AJP have the fourth largest number of Legislative Assembly candidates statewide (assuming LNP is one party). They are running in most seats.

I’m surprised there’s no Reason candidate here or in Albert Park yet because they generally had a bit of a base in St Kilda due to the prominence of sex work and its related support services in the area, dating back to when they were the Australian Sex Party.

I’ve noticed the Victorian Socialists rarely run south of the river though.

I agree and I think the Socialists are too busy concentrating funds and efforts in Western Metro and Northern Metro so it’ll be interesting to see!

I personally am surprised that Liberals and Greens are calling in big guns as mention by John Above. Greens have called majority of their federally recognisable names such as Senator Janet Rice, Macnamara candidate Steph Hodgins-May and even today Sonya Semmens for Higgins with Jason Ball for Higgins too. The Greens seem to be targeting this hard.

Similarly, the Liberals were seen at Prahran market this morning with Dr Katie Allen. It makes me question why the newly elected MP Michele isn’t out helping Vic Labor and why Liberals and Greens are targeting hard.

But if liberals do follow through with the Dan Last, it’ll depend where the Greens finish

Wrong type of election for the ALP to make a play here – there will be a statewide swing against the ALP compare to 2018 because that was such a blowout result. Plus the Greens have the benefit of incumbency.

I can’t imagine the Liberals actually believe they have any chance of winning, so maybe they’re canpaigning just to stay in second and keep Labor in third place because they’d prefer a Green retain than Labor gain, and without it having to be due to their preferences.

The Liberals’ overlapping federal result here was a further -11% drop after the 10% swing Katie Allen suffered in 2018.

A 21% difference between the Liberals’ 2014 primary vote and overlapping 2022 federal primary vote, from 44% to 23%! They have zero chance.

Also I don’t know if I’d call Katie Allen a big gun as she was a failed 2018 candidate who suffered a big swing, and one term federal MP who lost blue ribbon Higgins (albeit not her fault, she probably saved a few percent).

I understand why the Greens are putting in the effort though and as mentioned above I don’t think it would be because they’re worried about Labor beating them in primary votes or the 3CP race, I think most people expect the Greens to finish first. They’re just preparing for the possibility of the Liberals falling to third and directing preferences to Labor which would be a genuinely close ALP v GRN race (although looking more likely Libs will preference Greens now anyway).

Liberal MP David Davis and Prahran Candidate Matthew Lucas are again sharing “Put Labor Last” messages. Not long to go but it does look like Liberals will actually preference Greens ahead of Labor at least in the Inner City seats where they themselves have no chance of winning.

The Libs have officially confirmed preferencing Labor last in every seat. Nothing but a Greens retain here

What percentage of Liberal voters will follow the recommendation to preference the Greens above Labor?

@ Nicholas, i guess we need to look at the flow of preference in Melbourne (fed) 2010 or at the 2006 Vic state election for clues. Most Liberal voters in Prahran and other parts of the inner city will be more moderate ones.

I believe in Melbourne in 2010, the Lib preference flow was 80% to the Greens, 20% to Labor. Even if the preference flow is significantly lower this time, say 60%-40% the Greens would still win. Prahran has a lot of blue-green voters particularly in the South Yarra and Southbank end so I’d imagine the preference flows to the Greens would be pretty strong.

@Nicholas,

In any statistics I’ve seen, Liberal voters are usually more reliable in voting according to the HTV than Greens or Labor voters are.

That said – it’s still a minority who follow it exactly, maybe 25-30% at best.

I’d imagine most Lib voters here would preference the antivax parties below Labor which would not be what the Libs would have on the HTV card. Nevertheless, I’d say the vast majority would preference the Greens over Labor which is what really matters in this seat especially since the Libs put that on the HTV card.

There are no anti-vax or “freedom” parties running in Prahran, the only right-wing minor is Family First who oddly enough have said they’re preferencing Labor above the Liberals in all lower house seats where the Lib candidate isn’t “conservative enough”, to send them a message that apparently there’s no differe between “moderate” Liberals and Labor.

That will probably help Labor finish above the Libs who now have no real source of minor party preferences here.

Then with Libs preferencing Greens, even an ALP v GRN count should be an easy Greens retain. I don’t think Labor have any chance of finishing ahead of the Greens at the 3CP count, so Labor probably needed at least a 60-40 flow (likely more) of Liberal preferences to win. That won’t happen now.

I did a blog post on this topic recently. The LNP preferenced the Greens in South Brisbane in 2020 and 64% actually followed through and put the Greens ahead of Labor.

I tend to think Lib preferences would have gone around 65-35 to whoever they put higher on their HTV, which is pretty consistent with South Brisbane. Maybe a bit higher to the Greens in an area like Prahran.

So if they preferenced Labor, 65-35 would have resulted in roughly a 50/50 ALP v GRN race based on the primary votes I expect, but preferencing the Greens would be an easy Greens win.

Of course, I think the most likely outcome is probably still a GRN v LIB count anyway.

I think Hibbins will hold on as a result of the Liberal preferences announcement – if Liberals do fall third than than Hibbins just needs to ahead of the Libs in 3PP.

Labor still has a shot still.

Labor campaign is pretty non-existent here. I believe Labor has deployed resources to the outer suburbs to defend seats (or to Albert Park). Liberal campaign is very small. Greens are everywhere here in Prahran with loads of posters and corflutes and bilboards. Would be very surprised to not see a swing away from Labor and Liberal to the Greens here. I think Greens vote might hit closer to 35% to 40%.

Totally agree D M. I’ve noticed the same.

I live in St Kilda not far from the boundary of Albert Park & Prahran (in the Prahran section).

Immediately I notice that on my side of the highway, the only candidate there are billboards of everywhere is Sam Hibbins. No Labor, no Liberal.

But if I cross the highway, there’s no Greens material at all, just big Nina Taylor posters & billboards.

I’m predicting the Greens to match their overlapping federal result here which was about 38%, and already have a double digit lead in the 3CP count. I think Labor could be reduced to around 25% (worse than their overlapping federal result) and the Liberals reduced to around 27% (better than overlapping federal result), but still a significant swing against both going straight to Sam Hibbins.

Massive primary vote swing to the Greens here, +9.3% so far.

Funnily enough, re-reading my prediction above I said Labor 25% and Liberals 27%, that’s exactly what they currently are!

Anyway, Greens have cemented their hold on this seat now. 2CP might remain their safest in the state (currently similar to Brunswick so either could be) but no longer with a 3CP threat, and the Greens primary vote here is higher than in Melbourne, Richmond and Northcote, only Brunswick is 3% higher.

Looking at the booth results, the Greens weakest booth is still a 59% 2CP (South Yarra-Toorak Library), everywhere else in the 60s and 70s, with an 82% in St Kilda (funnily enough at St Michael’s, an elite private school).

Greens won the primary vote in every booth from what I can see.

Seems like it’s safe as houses now.