Ashwood – Victoria 2022

ALP 2.3%

Incumbent MP
Will Fowles, member for Burwood since 2018.

Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Ashwood covers the suburbs of Ashburton, Ashwood, Chadstone, Glen Iris and Mount Waverley, along with parts of Burwood and Burwood East. A majority of the seat is in the Monash council area, along with part of Boroondara and a small part of Whitehorse council area.

Redistribution
Ashwood is a new name for the seat of Burwood. The seat lost Box Hill South and Surrey Hills to Box Hill and Camberwell, and gained Mount Waverley from the seat of the same name. It also gained part of Burwood East from Forest Hill and part of Glen Iris from Hawthorn. These changes cut the Labor margin from 3.3% to 2.3%.

History
Ashwood was created in 2022 to replace the seat of Burwood.

The first electoral district of Burwood was created in 1955. It was held by Liberal MP Jim MacDonald until it was abolished in 1967, when he moved to the recreated seat of Glen Iris, which he held until his retirement in 1976.

The seat of Burwood was restored in 1976, and was won by Jeff Kennett, also of the Liberal Party. Kennett was appointed a minister in 1981, and was elected leader of the Liberal Party after they lost the 1982 state election.

Kennett led the party into the 1985 and 1988 elections, but after losing two elections he was replaced in 1989 by Alan Brown. He returned to the leadership unopposed in 1991 after poor performance by Brown.

Kennett won the 1992 election, and served as Premier for two terms. He won re-election in 1996, but in a shock result in 1999, Kennett lost his majority in the Legislative Assembly, and lost government when independent MPs supported the ALP.

Jeff Kennett resigned as Member for Burwood shortly afterwards, and in the following by-election, ALP candidate Bob Stensholt won the seat with a 10.4% swing. Stensholt increased his margin at the 2002 election, and was re-elected again in 2006.

In 2010, Labor MP Bob Stensholt lost to Liberal candidate Graham Watt, who won with a 9.6% swing. Watt held the seat in 2014 but lost in 2018 to Labor candidate Will Fowlers.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Ashwood is a quite marginal seat. If the Liberal Party was competitive statewide they would be strong here, but Labor still has a good shot of holding on in 2022.

2018 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Watt Liberal 16,13842.7-7.344.3
Will Fowles Labor 14,92439.5+5.140.8
Graham Ross Greens 4,60412.2-0.811.7
Andrew WilliamsSustainable Australia1,1012.9+2.91.6
Amanda BeattieAnimal Justice1,0002.6+2.71.4
Others0.1
Informal1,3483.40.0

2018 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Will Fowles Labor 20,13253.3+6.552.3
Graham Watt Liberal 17,63546.7-6.547.7

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.

The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.8% in the west to 58.6% in the centre. Labor also won the pre-poll vote, but lost the special vote.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote just under 10% in the centre and east and almost 13% in the west.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
West12.851.89,63521.0
East9.854.69,31620.3
Central9.958.66,38213.9
Other votes11.048.513,78730.0
Pre-poll12.651.56,85814.9

Election results in Ashwood at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

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8 COMMENTS

  1. A top tier Liberal target but Labor will have an incumbency advantage in Ashwood with Mount Waverley MP Matt Fregon reportedly contesting.

  2. I hear the Liberals pre-selected Asher Judah here.

    He was an absolute dud candidate in Bentleigh in 2018. He lives in the electorate of Sandringham I believe (Beaumaris) and ran an absolutely awful campaign in Bentleigh that almost singularly focused on a scare campaign that crime had gotten “out of control” in Bentleigh, with huge billboards of an old man with a black eye and misleading (almost blatantly false) crime statistics.

    In a an upper-middle class family friendly electorate with some of the lowest crime rates in the whole state, that was never going to resonate.

    That pre-selection should help Labor, who have an overlapping incumbent.

  3. I suspect that Labor will lose most, if not all, of those inner-east seats that they grabbed at the last election. The margins are only about 4% on a 2PP basis for those to fall, which isn’t a big swing at all.

    With covid hardships and the health system doing poorly under the current government, we could be in for a pretty close election, despite what the polls say.

  4. Not necessarily, the current climate of Vic Libs is not at all positive as they always only announce ideological policies rather than sensible alternative policies but only not to appease anyone. It’s a bit like pork-barreling but to right-wing anti-vax voters. The Vic Libs is not making any inroads to the community inner east besides for minor upgrades to a few already well-maintained stations. Their right-wing dog-whistling for covid and freedoms is just like their a failed ‘African Gangs’ campaign. I think there may be a slight shift against ALP in their heartlands and some Eastern European voters to vote (or have minor party preferences) for Vic Libs due to their anti- Andrews and anti-covid mandate stance in fact any right-wing activist is endorsing Matthew Guy but would not be anywhere close to danger and actually, Vic Libs killed off the moderate votes, a key Eastern Suburbs voting block.

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