Caulfield – Victoria 2022

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11 COMMENTS

  1. Any information yet regarding the Labor candidate for Caulfield? I live in this electorate and can’t seem to find any details as of yet. Might not yet have been announced, but for the most marginal seat in the state, you would think a candidate would be announced by now!

  2. Don’t know but ring alp ho Victoria and I am sure rhey can answer your question

  3. I’m tipping this as the most likely Labor gain.

    I know federal does not equal state, but the swings against the Liberals across the Caulfield area last month were enormous, some polling places up to about 11%. Labor not only comfortably won the 2PP in every polling place within these boundaries, but even won the primary vote in all but 1 or 2.

    Considering this margin is only 0.1%, I can’t see any possible scenario in which the Liberals don’t get a swing of at least 0.2% against them here.

    Labor should also ensure Josh Burns is seen to be prominently campaigning alongside whoever their candidate is, because he seems to be a very popular local member around Caulfield.

  4. Liberals are in trouble here if the Federal swings are to mean anything. There were many double-digit swings against the Liberals in the booths in Caulfield some almost 15%. Greens even won a number of booths in Ripponlea, Caulfield and St Kilda East.
    There’s a huge prepoll % in this electorate, so the results could be a bit distorted behind the booth numbers.
    Any swing against the Liberals in this seat will mean a Labor gain.

  5. This will be an interesting seat to watch. Obviously state and federal are different and the Caulfield area may have swung against the Liberals for reasons specific to the federal Liberal government but it doesn’t look good for the Libs. The Vic Libs would be nervous about the seats of Caulfield, Brighton, Sandringham, Croydon and Glen Waverley due to their very narrow margins. The expectation is that these seats would see a swing to Libs due to 2018 been their low point and struggling to see it get any worse but these areas don’t seem to have as big of an ant-Dan backlash and may be turned off by some of the Vic Libs antics. Also depends on the local member, Neil Angus has probably lost some personal support during COVID.

  6. These seats also had swings against the Libs federally, be interesting to see if it’s just federal Libs they’re unhappy with or the current Liberal brand as a whole

  7. It will be interesting to see if the anger from the federal Liberals will erode, however Mathew Guy is not very popular & the Liberal brand is on the nose in Victoria.

  8. @North East and @Bob, I believe the Vic Libs has a worse reputation than even the federal Libs. Just based on their social media using right-wing rhetoric attacking not just Andrews but also the chief health officer and even the police. I have a theory that a number of Vic Libs MP’S attendance to the November ‘freedom’ rallies might have partly been a factor turning off many voters for the LNP in the Federal Election let alone the state election.
    It seems Matthew Guy and Vic Libs have some similarities with Canada’s Conservatives for having their MP’s support the trucker convoy and would likely have Pierre Poilievre as their Opposition Leader. Poilievre seems quite similar to Guy in some respects as they both have hardline language against any covid mandates.

  9. I don’t think there’s any way this seat won’t swing at least 0.2% to be a Labor gain.

    I don’t think 2018 was the Liberals’ low point in the inner city areas.

    They will probably get swings back to them in the outer and even middle suburbs now that Andrews is less popular than 2018 and anger at the federal Libs & Morrison will have eased off… But in St Kilda East, Balaclava and Elsternwick?

    There’s just no way the leftward trend doesn’t continue in these progressive inner areas as the Liberal brand becomes increasingly conservative and they are openly abandoning the inner city as a target or heartland.

  10. @Trent the question is whether it’s an actual trend or is just a protest vote against the current Libs. You could be right that 2018 might not be their low point, a lot of voters who held their nose and voted for the Libs in 2018 may not want to vote for a Guy led Lib party again.
    As for getting a swing to them in middle suburbs is Caulfield not considered a middle suburb. As for St Kilda East, Balaclava and Elsternwick i don’t think the Libs are looking at these places to get votes in this seat, as these suburbs probably have probably never been good for the Libs in recent history. They’ll be looking to get more votes in the Caulfield area.
    Also worth noting that there’s a uni campus in Caulfield so there’s likely a lot of students in surrounding suburbs, some in this seat and others in the Oakleigh seat.

  11. North East, I agree with all that. I don’t consider Caulfield a middle suburb either, but it just has a different dynamic to the suburbs in the west of this seat.

    My exclusion of Caulfield when talking about how the Libs won’t gain votes in St Kilda East, Balaclava & Elsternwick was for the same reason you say, because I also think that’s where they’ll be looking to gain votes.

    However, when I look at 2018 the Liberal vote actually held up pretty well in Caulfield. The seat was already marginal and they retained it with only a -4.6% swing compared to double digits in neighbouring Malvern, Albert Park, Brighton & Bentleigh; and if I recall the suburbs where it held up the best were around Caulfield itself. So their vote didn’t actually really collapse here in 2018 at all.

    Fast forward to 4 years later, and the Liberal vote completely collapsed around Caulfield by between 10-15% in a lot of booths in the federal election.

    Now there are a lot of factors here not relevant to the state election:
    – Unpopular federal Liberal government (protest vote as you say)
    – Popular incumbent MP in Josh Burns (Southwick will have this advantage in November)
    – Absolute disaster of a Liberal candidate in Colleen Harkin

    All that said though, there’s no indication whatsoever though that the mood in this area has shifted towards the Liberals since 2018, all evidence points to the opposite.

    Now those big swings in May clearly won’t happen in November due to the factors outlined above that won’t be applicable, I’m not suggesting anything like that. But if the mood has swung against them by double digits in 4 years (albeit with different federal factors at play), the idea of at least 0.2% out of that double digit federal shift not holding up for the state election seems unrealistic to me.

    The other thing too is that while it is exceptionally important for the Jewish community here to have a Jewish MP; there is even more value to having a Jewish MP who is part of the government, not the opposition.

    If Labor bungle this and choose the wrong candidate, that will be the Liberals’ only chance to retain. If they choose a solid Jewish candidate who has Josh Burns out campaigning with him/her, it should be Labor’s to lose.

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