Bentleigh – Victoria 2022

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  1. The Libs would want to make a dint in the margin here so it’s gettable in 2026, the same can be said for Mordialloc, Carrum, Frankston, Monbulk, Cranbourne, Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South, Eltham and Ivanhoe.

  2. Given the Liberals’ apparent change of direction moving forward, I think Carrum & Frankston (and to a lesser extent Mordialloc) will be the traditional “sandbelt” marginals they still need to target and will probably get some positive swings to cut the double digit margins back to be competitive in 2026, but I don’t think the needle will move too much in Bentleigh. Nick Staikos seems to be a pretty popular local member too. I think the margin will probably remain around 10% here.

    I see the Liberals’ 2026 path being in seats like Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South, Cranbourne, Carrum & Frankston as you say (in addition to the eastern corridor); whereas I think seats like Prahran & Bentleigh which they won in 2010 and Albert Park which they had their eye on for some time, will become further out of reach.


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