Albert Park – Victoria 2022

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  1. Fishermans Bend is due to have a social housing put in with rest being turned into high rises, this should benefit the ALP here & help the Greens here as well.

  2. It’s interesting that the Greens have seemed to underperform in Albert Park compared to Macnamara; especially since Prahran is right next door.

    Martin Foley being a high profile incumbent has probably aided Labor in Albert Park. Being promoted to Health Minister during the pandemic has really elevated his profile since the last election too, but it will be interesting to see whether that’s a net positive or negative for him.

    In any case, huge Greens swings across these suburbs in Macnamara only 6 months prior to the state election should give the Greens some momentum going into this campaign. If they can achieve similar swings and get the Greens’ primary back into at least the low to mid 20s, they should set themselves up well to make it a more marginal contest in 2026 as part of a two-election strategy.

  3. The Greens performed abysmally at the last state election. If their support rebounds to the same level as at the last federal election, that’ll amount to a huge swing in many seats including this one.

  4. Every question time, most opposition questions are directed to Foley, and they’re always about someone who called for an ambulance or presented at an emergency ward but had to wait an unacceptable length of time.

    His answer is always the same. He begins with the same emotionless prelude, and he speaks seemingly as slowly as he can, sometimes even stuttering despite how many times he’s repeated it: “I thank the honourable member for his question, and while I am not briefed on the particular set of circumstances put forward by the honourable member, I am happy to follow up if the honourable member provides them to me. But what I can say is our health system has faced a one in one hundred year pandemic…”

    Every question. Every question time.

    He seems like he just doesn’t care. I’m not saying he doesn’t, but if he does, he really doesn’t show it.

  5. They won’t lose this seat to the Libs, maybe to the Greens but Labor would be favoured to retain. Maybe in 2010 or 2014 the Libs would’ve gained if Foley was retiring then. Certainly not now though. This is an area that’s probably the most hostile to the direction of the state Libs in the entire state.

  6. I don’t think there’s any chance the Greens could win this time because the swing required is just way too big.

    Labor’s primary vote in 2018 was 43% and the Greens only 16%. Labor really need to collapse to closer to 30% for the Greens to win and I think that’s just a bit too much of an ask.

    I do agree though that the Greens will improve dramatically. I think Labor’s vote will fall back to the mid-30s, the Liberals will probably hover around 30%, and the Greens could very possibly get a dramatic swing into the mid-20s, but that would still be a comfortable Labor win.

    Greens will probably put more resources into Richmond and Northcote, and holding Prahran (where they will no doubt improve their vote but the very real possibility of it becoming a Greens v Labor 2CP will make it tougher to hold).

  7. @Trent Agreed the margin is too much for the Greens to overcome. They will improve here in this election though and will looking to make up as much ground as possible to target it in 2026.

  8. Upper house MP Nina Taylor from the Southern Metro Region will move into this seat according to The Age.
    Greens did abysmally in 2018 but performed quite well on these boundaries on a federal level in Macnamara in May. I know federal results don’t translate well into state results but Greens should have a decent lift in their vote this time around.
    This also used to be a marginal contest with the Libs pre-2018, wonder if they’ll improve notably this time?

  9. Interesting! I literally just checked the letterbox an hour ago and had a pamphlet for Nina Taylor (a “local update” newsletter as the Southern Metro MP).

    I wonder if that was timed to raise her profile in the area before moving into the lower house seat.

    My prediction for Albert Park is:
    – Greens will improve quite a lot, enough to put them in a better position for 2026 but not enough to be competitive this time;
    – Liberal vote may remain pretty static. It may improve a little bit, but it plummeted in May (worse than 2018 state results) and in the long term this area is moving away from the Liberal Party, or more accurately, the Liberal Party are moving away from even trying to appeal to this region/demographic

    I think the 2PP will remain around 60-40, but Labor’s primary vote will go back into the 30s and the Greens will go back into the 20s, there could be a good 8% transfer between Labor-Greens (eg. Labor go from 43 to 35, Greens go from 16 to 24).

  10. I project Labor would win this seat but there is a large chance that it would be Labor-Green TPP since
    – The Liberal vote improvement in the area that happened in the past decades has now seems to be gradually reversed since apartments are propping up by young professionals and Labor/Green improvement on white-collar educated votes recently indicated from the federal results
    – Small Liberals/Moderates seem to disapprove of Matthew Guy in a similar way to Scott Morrison/Peter Dutton. I think Guy already had a controversial reputation for many years from approving too many high rises in the CBD without scrutiny, the Ventor Scandal, and the dining with Mafias. These already makes the Guy unpopular.
    – That is not further helped by Vic Libs populist hardline language against Andrews with literal opposition to any covid mandates. While it may have worked to some extent in the Labor heartlands that are affected by lockdowns more and with high vaccine hesitancy, this in reverse also made moderate Liberal voters view that Vic Libs is aligning themselves with the fringes especially when Vic Libs supported the anti-covid mandate rallies last November. I have pointed out in the past thread that the November rallies might have somewhat might have been one of the key factors why the Eastern Suburbs turned away the Libs in the last federal election and vice versa in the North and West.
    – Then Vic Libs admitted they might not put so many campaign resources in their heartland for November’s election campaign

  11. Nina Taylor has confirmed she is the candidate for Albert Park at the election. Labor retain, but Greens will make inroads as they had a shocker at the last election. Liberal vote stagnant.

  12. If left-wing Liberals disapprove of Matthew Guy that would be quite funny because the conservative ones don’t like him either.

  13. @Entrepreneur Matthew Guy returned to power with the support of the hard right faction like Tim Smith so it’s fair to say he has more support from the conservatives than the moderates where the previous leader Michael O Brien is aligned.

  14. There’s no such thing as a “left-wing Liberal” in Australia. There are moderate, centre-right Liberals to counter the hard-right conservative faction, but none are remotely “left-wing”.

    Malcolm Turnbull is a perfect example. There was absolutely nothing even remotely left-wing about his economics or ideology. He was simply intelligent enough to recognise that it’s the 21st century, not the dark ages, and that our social policies should reflect the world we live in, rather than the world the ACL want us to live in.


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