The Tally Room

Yesterday's final result in New South Wales was a bit of a surprise, with One Nation closing a primary vote margin of 0.21 quotas. Even after One Nation won another senator in Western Australia on Thursday afternoon, the gain they had made in WA...

Prior to the election, I drew attention to the differences between my calculations and those of the AEC for a number of non-classic seats that gained new areas during the redistribution. Originally I had a list of 14 affected seats, but one of them...

We are now getting to the point in the election count where all of the primary votes appear to have been counted. We don't have all the preference data yet - Bradfield is obviously still in play, the two-party-preferred count is not quite complete,...

I had the opportunity today to visit the Bradfield recount, thanks to being appointed as a scrutineer. I did not attempt to challenge any ballots, but this gave me the best way to see how the process works. I was thinking of doing a...

The vote count is now getting to a point where pretty much all primary votes have been counted, even if we don't have all of the preference counts yet. So that means we can now begin to analyse the informal voting trends - where...

Friday 2:47pm - The distribution of preferences has been published in New South Wales, and here is the last three rounds. In the third-last round, there were four candidates left competing for two seats when Legalise Cannabis was excluded: Faruqi (GRN) - 0.9456 quotas ...

One of the big stories of 2025 has been the rise of independents. There was a notable increase in the number of independents who stood at this election, but that in itself is not the most important factor. There is a tremendous range in...

Today's booth map covers two neighbouring seats in southern Sydney, both of which flipped from Liberal to Labor in 2025. The seat of Banks covers south-western parts of the Canterbury-Bankstown coucnil area and a majority of the Georges River council area, on the northern side...

The AEC finished the distribution of preferences for Bradfield late on Friday night, after a fascinating day that started with teal independent Nicolette Boele leading by 28 votes and ending with her 8 votes behind. This was a shift of 48 votes from Boele's...

For today's post I am looking at how the Muslim vote changed, using some techniques I've previously used to look at voters of Chinese and Indian ancestry in past votes. At this election we have seen a lot of speculation about Muslim voters switching from...