Western Victoria – Victoria 2022

Incumbent MLCs

  • Stuart Grimley (Justice), since 2018
  • Bev McArthur (Liberal), since 2018
  • Andy Meddick (Animal Justice), since 2018
  • Jaala Pulford (Labor), since 2006
  • Gayle Tierney (Labor), since 2006

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
BellarineALP 11.4%LowanNAT 20.9%South BarwonALP 3.7%
EurekaALP 9.7%MeltonALP 5.4%South-West CoastLIB 3.3%
GeelongALP 6.1% vs INDPolwarthLIB 2.5%WendoureeALP 11.0%
LaraALP 19.1%RiponALP 2.8%

Western Victoria covers the greater Geelong region and stretches west to the South Australian border. In addition to Geelong, the region covers Ballarat, Warrnambool, Horsham, Colac, Bacchus Marsh, Melton and Torquay.

Eight of the seats in the region are held by Labor, two are held by the Liberal Party, and one is held by the Nationals.

Redistribution
There were minor changes to Western Victoria, losing the remainder of the Buloke council area (including Charlton and Donald) to Northern Victoria and gaining a small area around Melton from Western Metropolitan and Northern Victoria.

History
The Western Victoria region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

At the 2006 election, the Liberal Party and Labor each won two seats, and the fifth seat was won by the Democratic Labor Party’s Peter Kavanagh. The Nationals ran a separate ticket from the Liberal Party, which was unsuccessful.

In 2010, Kavanagh lost his seat to Nationals candidate David O’Brien, who was running on a joint ticket with the Liberal Party.

O’Brien lost in 2014 to James Purcell, running on the Vote 1 Local Jobs ticket.

One of the two Liberal MLCs was defeated in 2018, and Purcell stepped down to run for the lower house. These two seats were won by the Animal Justice Party and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party.

2018 result

2018 electionRedistribution
PartyVotes%SwingQuota%Quota
Labor 175,78838.2+4.12.29038.32.296
Liberal/Nationals 137,75529.9-7.01.79529.81.788
Greens 34,4777.5-1.70.4497.50.450
Derryn Hinch’s Justice 20,4834.4+4.40.2674.50.267
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 20,4234.4+2.10.2664.40.265
Animal Justice 12,7372.8+1.10.1662.80.166
Liberal Democrats 12,1152.60.00.1582.60.158
Voluntary Euthanasia 8,7221.9+1.90.1141.90.114
Democratic Labour 7,2501.60.00.0941.60.095
Country Party 6,3141.4+0.40.0821.40.082
Aussie Battler 5,4221.2+1.20.0711.20.071
Reason 4,2170.9-1.60.0550.90.055
Socialists 3,4060.7+0.70.0440.70.044
Health Australia 3,3370.7+0.70.0430.70.044
Sustainable Australia 2,9170.6+0.60.0380.60.038
Transport Matters 2,4040.5+0.50.0310.50.031
Liberty Alliance 2,3850.5+0.50.0310.50.031
Others 3460.10.0050.10.005
Informal 19,8194.14.1

Preference flows
On primary votes, Labor won two seats and the Liberal Party won one.

Let’s fast-forward until there were thirteen candidates running for the last two seats.

  • Joshua Morris (LIB) – 0.786 quotas
  • Lloyd Davies (GRN) – 0.444
  • Stuart Grimley (DHJ) – 0.331
  • Dylan Wight (ALP) – 0.277
  • Geoff Collins (SFF) – 0.269
  • Andy Meddick (AJP) – 0.170
  • Lachlan Christie (LDP) – 0.160
  • Costa Di Biase (ACP) – 0.156
  • Katrina Nugent (VEP) – 0.120
  • Frances Beaumont (DLP) – 0.096
  • Anthony Prelorenzo (ABP) – 0.073
  • Michael Bell (RP) – 0.059
  • Tim Gooden (SOC) – 0.047

Socialist preferences mostly flowed to Animal Justice:

  • Morris (LIB) – 0.786
  • Davies (GRN) – 0.449
  • Grimley (DHJ) – 0.332
  • Wight (ALP) – 0.279
  • Collins (SFF) – 0.270
  • Meddick (AJP) – 0.204
  • Christie (LDP) – 0.160
  • Di Biase (ACP) – 0.156
  • Nugent (VEP) – 0.121
  • Beaumont (DLP) – 0.096
  • Prelorenzo (ABP) – 0.073
  • Bell (RP) – 0.060

A majority of Reason preferences flowed to Voluntary Euthanasia:

  • Morris (LIB) – 0.787
  • Davies (GRN) – 0.457
  • Grimley (DHJ) – 0.335
  • Wight (ALP) – 0.284
  • Collins (SFF) – 0.271
  • Meddick (AJP) – 0.206
  • Christie (LDP) – 0.161
  • Nugent (VEP) – 0.158
  • Di Biase (ACP) – 0.157
  • Beaumont (DLP) – 0.097
  • Prelorenzo (ABP) – 0.074

Most Aussie Battler preferences flowed to Hinch’s party

  • Morris (LIB) – 0.787
  • Davies (GRN) – 0.457
  • Grimley (DHJ) – 0.403
  • Wight (ALP) – 0.284
  • Collins (SFF) – 0.272
  • Meddick (AJP) – 0.206
  • Christie (LDP) – 0.161
  • Nugent (VEP) – 0.159
  • Di Biase (ACP) – 0.157
  • Beaumont (DLP) – 0.097

DLP preferences mostly flowed to the Country Party:

  • Morris (LIB) – 0.790
  • Davies (GRN) – 0.458
  • Grimley (DHJ) – 0.404
  • Wight (ALP) – 0.285
  • Collins (SFF) – 0.272
  • Di Biase (ACP) – 0.246
  • Meddick (AJP) – 0.207
  • Christie (LDP) – 0.162
  • Nugent (VEP) – 0.159

Voluntary Euthanasia preferences flowed strongly to Animal Justice, pushing them into fourth place:

  • Morris (LIB) – 0.792
  • Davies (GRN) – 0.462
  • Grimley (DHJ) – 0.408
  • Meddick (AJP) – 0.340
  • Wight (ALP) – 0.287
  • Collins (SFF) – 0.276
  • Di Biase (ACP) – 0.247
  • Christie (LDP) – 0.162

Liberal Democrats preferences flowed strongly to Hinch’s party, pushing them ahead of the Greens:

  • Morris (LIB) – 0.793
  • Grimley (DHJ) – 0.561
  • Davies (GRN) – 0.463
  • Meddick (AJP) – 0.341
  • Wight (ALP) – 0.287
  • Collins (SFF) – 0.278
  • Di Biase (ACP) – 0.248

Country Party preferences mostly flowed to the Shooters, pushing them ahead of Labor:

  • Morris (LIB) – 0.795
  • Grimley (DHJ) – 0.592
  • Davies (GRN) – 0.464
  • Collins (SFF) – 0.445
  • Meddick (AJP) – 0.381
  • Wight (ALP) – 0.288

Labor preferences flowed strongly to Animal Justice, pushing them into second place:

  • Morris (LIB) – 0.797
  • Meddick (AJP) – 0.631
  • Grimley (DHJ) – 0.595
  • Davies (GRN) – 0.473
  • Collins (SFF) – 0.446

Shooters preferences flowed strongly to Hinch’s party, electing Grimley:

  • Grimley (DHJ) – 1.008
  • Morris (LIB) – 0.805
  • Meddick (AJP) – 0.634
  • Davies (GRN) – 0.474

The Hinch party’s small surplus scattered, and then the Greens were excluded, with their preferences electing Meddick to the final seat:

  • Meddick (AJP) – 1.024
  • Morris (LIB) – 0.810

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Western Victoria is a relatively strong region for Labor, who should be able to retain their two seats.

A relatively small swing to the Coalition would likely be enough to regain their second seat.

There seems to be space for one small party candidate but not necessarily one of the incumbent MLCs.

Regional breakdown
Labor topped the primary vote across the region, and in eight out of eleven seats. The Coalition came first in the other three.

The Labor primary vote ranged from 23.4% in Lowan to 49% in Lara.

The Coalition primary vote ranged from 17.7% in Lara and 17.9% in Melton, all the way to 45.4% in Lowan.

Results of the 2018 Victorian upper house election in the Western Victoria region

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5 COMMENTS

  1. Small correction – James Purcell didn’t lose (his upper house seat anyway) as he choose not to re-contest and instead ran for the lower house (South West Coast).

    Undemocratically elected, but Meddick (AJP) has been a great rep – I’d expect his primary vote to double, maybe triple, only to then ironically lose the preference lottery to someone else who pulls 1% of the vote.

    Swings, roundabouts and veggie burgers.

  2. Meddick has been terrible, especially with his passing of undemocratic legislation during the pandemic.

  3. How is the pandemic bill undemocratic? The sky did not fall for every unfounded claim in the bill and NSW and NZ have similar laws with Vic being more transparent than the other two

  4. Where’s IPMAC? Why was Dan shutting out most of the crossbench from negotiations?

    Even the ABC came out against his antics

  5. Meddick has been a very good representative for progressives in Western Victoria, however I expect the Greens will finally pick up a seat here at his expense. No candidates announced yet, although the Greens do have popular and effective city councillors in both Ballarat and Geelong – either of which would make an excellent choice.

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