Melton – Victoria 2022

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  1. This seat is interesting as despite labor Winning office it swung against them in 2014 & 2018. This will be in treating to watch.

  2. Bob, I think the 2018 swing came down to a protest vote against then Labor MP Don Nardella (he retired at that election). He was embroiled in some corruption scandal relating to failure to declare ownership of a second property outside his electorate.

  3. I think the 2018 result was a combination of Nardella, the change in ALP candidate during 2018, a sentiment of the west being neglected and the increased informal vote due to the increased number of candidates (from 8.13% with 9 candidates in 2014 to 10.06% with 12 candidates in 2018).

    The Nardella and ALP candidate change issues will almost certainly have diminished in the 4 years since the 2018 election, with the ALP now having a non-Nardella incumbent.

    With the redistribution cutting the size of the seat, the number of candidates should decrease and therefore the informal vote drop as well. For example, Jarrod Bingham is described by the ABC Elections Melton 2018 page as living in Bacchus Marsh and did best in Bacchus Marsh booths, which are now in Eureka, so I presume he won`t be running in Melton.

  4. I still won’t put this seat as safe as the swings against Labor here have been quite large. The multiple covid outbreaks have heavily affected this area so there may be anger from that still. If Labor has a poor showing on the night here then this electorate could come into play.

  5. TOM, jarrod bingham had a strong showing in bacchus marsh because he was a local councillor that had a lot of local projects supported but like bob turner, ian Birchall and most the INDIES they were supporting each other and all agreed that unless 1 of them got elected they told people to put labor last (how to vote cards) but liberals 3rd last and greens 2nd last that way the seat could be pushed to marninal. now we see the liberals talking about the hospital as much as labor so the we can say the seat is marginal but we still feel neglected


    Thank you for the local info. Being a recent municipal politician in Moorabool I would think decreases the chances he will run in the new Melton, given very little of Moorabool is in the new Melton and almost all of it is in Eureka. However he did run in Gorton in 2019, which did not have any Bacchus Marsh in it but did have Melton in it, so he may run in Melton (if he continues with politics, if he runs in the new Hawke that may indicate his continuation with politics).

  7. Labor is set to build a new hospital in Melton which seems to me that they are a tad worried about here.

  8. Bob, this is one of the fastest growing places in Australia and it needs a new hospital. This doesn’t mean Labor is worried about it. The Liberals haven’t won a seat in the west for decades and they’re not going to win one in 2022.

  9. This is the most fascinating contest of the election. An independent, labor or liberal could win or even possibly some anti-lockdown minor party such as LD or UAP (unlikely) . However McGhie is a sophomore and hence should pick up votes so a very fascinating contest. Labor haven’t lost a Vic seat (federal or state) with a sitting member to the liberals since 2013.

  10. Graham Watt, the former Burwood MP, is running here after losing the Ashwood preselection. What a complete joke.

  11. UAP is apparently going to field candidates in every single seat, this could if they do end up doing really help the LNP here.

  12. Bob, they did that at the last QLD state election I believe or at least most seats and look how many seats they helped the LNP win lol. Won’t have any effect, if anything it splits the right-wing vote and not all preferences will come back to the conservatives so it costs them seats.

  13. Interesting to see if the swing against Labor here was a result of the bad Labor MP before 2018 or a shift towards the Liberals. Not a good look for the former Burwood MP to be parachuted into this seat…

  14. @Ham Selecting the former Burwood MP is definitely a bad look for the Libs and also poor strategy, surely they could’ve found someone in the area especially considering that they’re targeting this seat.
    This seat is interesting as it’s believed to be in play due to been more marginal than surrounding seats, mostly due to Labor not receiving a swing to it unlike other seats due to issues within the seat such as controversy of exiting MP and late change of candidate. Lockdowns probably weren’t popular in this area but Labor did build a new hospital here. Could Labor get a swing to them here without the controversies they had last election here and a new hospital.

  15. @North East

    Labor did not build a new hospital there. They’ve been promising one since the 80s. Dan promised again in 2014 with nothing to show and again in 2018. The thing isn’t due to be finished until 2029, and only has 100 beds for a population that is projected to reach 300k by 2029.

    And that date is providing everything runs on time. With the history of Andrews’ infrastructure blow outs and scheduling, I’d project that the hospital project will go well into the 2030s and will be overcapacity already due to the minuscule number of beds.

    Dan has added 0 out of 10 new hospitals to the system that he promised at the 2014/18 elections. He has only started works on one, and those works currently consist of merely getting a shovel into the ground.

    A swing towards Labor this year has an near zero chance of happening. Add that to Dan’s privatisation of Vicroads almost certainly leading to rego increases impacting mortgage-stress Labor areas in the future, and this is a storm that Labor does not want to deal with.


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