Tasmanian election night live

10:56 – All of the pre-poll booths that were due to be counted tonight have now reported. So I don’t expect any more results to come in tonight.

Right now the numbers for the parties in the parliament look about the same following the election. The three independents elected in 2024 have likely been re-elected. The changes are that Peter George has won, and there are two other seats that will either go to the SFF or the Liberal Party. While the replacement of JLN with SFF or Liberals would make life easier for Rockliff, Peter George won’t be easy to work with. Overall, I think the Liberals aren’t really any closer to stability than they were two months ago.

Over the next few days we will get more votes counted, but we will need to wait until Tuesday, July 29 for the distribution of preferences.

There is a fascinating divergence between the north and south of Tasmania. Labor will also have to grapple with a political climate where they are not the sole progressive player, but instead are just one part.

I’m going to wrap up here for tonight, but there will undoubtedly be more to analyse in coming days and weeks.

10:38 – I don’t think we’re going to get much more information tonight. It’s worth bearing in mind that some of the pre-poll votes won’t come in until tomorrow, and we don’t have any postal votes yet. Those pre-polls that have come in have been more favourable to the Liberals. It’s quite possible that these late votes could boost the Liberal vote and improve their chances of winning fourth seats in Bass and Lyons or even a third seat in Franklin.

10:10 – So I think it is likely that the seat count will end up as 14 Liberal, 10 Labor, 5 Greens, 4 independents and two seats with a serious amount of doubt: both seats are contests between Liberal and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers in Bass and Lyons.

There’s also a few seats where we know what party has won the seat but don’t know the individual.

In Bass, Labor will retain their second seat, previously held by retiring MP Michelle O’Byrne. Jess Greene is on 0.28 quotas, while Geoff Lyons is on 0.26 quotas, with 0.65 quotas sitting with the four lower-ranked Labor candidates.

In Clark, Liberal candidate Marcus Vermey is on track to be elected, but the Liberal seat count won’t go up, so one of the two sitting Liberals will lose their seat. Madeleine Ogilvie is most likely to lose her seat, and she is on 0.48 quotas. Simon Behrakis is on 0.6 quotas and I suspect will likely hold his seat but it might takes some time to become clear.

In Lyons, two Liberal seats are clear, with Guy Barnett and Jane Howlett both on about one quota each. Their colleague Mark Shelton is in the lead, but is only on 0.47 quotas, with fellow Liberal Stephanie Cameron not far behind on 0.3 quotas.

I should also mention Labor’s ticket in Lyons, where sitting MP Casey Farrell is set to lose his seat to Brian Mitchell without much doubt, or the Liberal ticket in Bass, where Simon Wood will lose his seat unless he can win a fourth Liberal seat.

10:00 – We’re not seeing a lot of change now, as it looks like most of the election day vote is in. By my reckoning there’s just one election day booth missing in Braddon.

We have also started getting pre-poll votes. Only nine of the fifteen pre-poll booths will be counted tonight. All of the pre-poll booths we are expecting in Bass and Braddon have reported. We’re still waiting for Glenorchy in Clark, and Kingston in Franklin. We are also missing Granton and St Helens in Lyons.

We will not be getting any postal votes tonight, so it’s basically just those four pre-poll booths.

9:54 – Madeleine Ogilvie is clearly in third place amongst the Liberals in Clark now, and appears to be in a lot of trouble.

9:50 – Also worth noting that the Greens vote in Bass has fallen back and I think it’s unlikely they can win a second seat there. I suspect it will be a Liberal vs Shooters, Fishers and Farmers race, as will Lyons.

9:48 – Labor’s vote has picked up in Braddon and I think they probably will retain that tenth seat. This also will probably close the door on the Greens winning a seat there.

9:47 – I’ve got another update on Instagram.

8:49 – It is worth emphasising that the Liberal Party has not had a great result. Their vote at the moment is still less than 2 in 5 Tasmanians. It looks likely that, between Labor, the Greens and independents, a majority of the Assembly could be identified as progressive. A big part of this story is the inability to form alliances that could command the support of a majority.

8:42 – My rough estimates of the seat counts, with less caution than the ABC would be applying to their figures, produces this result:

• 14 – Liberal (+1 in Braddon, -1 in Franklin)
• 9 – Labor (potentially -1 in Braddon)
• 5 – Greens
• 4 – Independents (Garland, George, Johnston, O’Byrne)

This leaves three seats genuinely in a lot of doubt:

• Bass – Shooters, Fishers and Farmers competing against a fourth Liberal and a second Green.
• Braddon – Second Labor competing against first Green.
• Lyons – Shooters, Fishers and Farmers competing against fourth Liberal.

So if this is correct, the Liberals’ best result would be 16 seats, and they would be relying on Garland, George, Johnston and O’Byrne to maintain their position in government. If the Shooters were to win in Bass and Lyons it wouldn’t really change the mid-point of the Assembly but would make the Liberals’ job more complicated.

Labor and the Greens would have 15-16 seats between them, but the ALP would represent a dwindling share of the progressive bloc in parliament. If Labor were to lose Braddon, there would be just nine of them alongside 6-7 Greens, plus other progressives like George, Garland, O’Byrne and Johnston.

There is also an increasingly big divide emerging between the three northern electorates and the two southern ones. The Liberal Party would be reduced to just 28.6% of seats in Clark and Franklin, while winning up to 57% of seats in the other three electorates. The Greens and independents would make up the largest bloc in the southern electorates while just Craig Garland and a single Green in each electorate disrupt the major parties in the north.

8:34 – I hadn’t looked at the Liberal candidates in Clark when I looked at their vote, but Marcus Vermey looks like he will almost certainly be elected, with the two incumbent Liberals (Madeleine Ogilvie and Simon Behrakis) in a close contest for the second Liberal seat.

That would be one example of a sitting MP losing their seat to an intra-party challenge. It also looks set to happen in Lyons for the ALP (Brian Mitchell beating Casey Farrell) and Bass for the Liberals (Bridget Archer beating Rob Fairs). It looks like the Liberal vote is high enough in Braddon to accomodate Gavin Pearce.

8:32 – If we look at Franklin, the Liberal Party’s vote has dropped by 2.3%, and they are currently on 2.47 quotas. It looks like Eric Abetz and Jacquie Petrusma should be re-elected but Nic Street could be in trouble.

Labor is on just 1.89 quotas. It will likely be enough to retain their two seats.

Peter George’s ticket is on 1.57 quotas, with George himself on 1.45. He’ll get elected and his surplus could be influential if a seat is close.

David O’Byrne should get re-elected. He has gained a swing towards him but is under a quota. Rosalie Woodruff will also win, but the prospects of a second Green has been swamped by Peter George.

So overall Franklin looks pretty likely to be a loss of one Liberal seat to Peter George.

8:24 – Poll Bludger appears to be back. It’s excellent for election nerds who want a more detailed picture. Check it out.

8:22 – If we look at Clark, the Greens remain ahead of Labor, who are down by 7.4%. Right now it looks like the Liberals and Greens each have two full quotas, along with one Labor and one for Kristie Johnston. I can’t see any result except Labor winning a second seat, benefiting from Johnston’s surplus having to go somewhere else.

8:20 – I’ve been using the Poll Bludger results system but it looks like it’s struggling.

8:17 – The Liberals are over four quotas in Braddon and look a good chance to pick up a seat. Jeremy Rockliff has over 2.5 quotas himself. Former federal MP Gavin Pearce looks like winning the second seat. Sitting MPs Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch will likely win on Rockliff’s surplus.

Labor is on just 1.6 quotas in Braddon. Anita Dow leads, but Shane Broad is only on 0.37 quotas.

The Greens have not picked up the vote they would have hoped for, but 0.56 quotas could still put them in the hunt.

Craig Garland’s vote has been dropping as more urban booths come in, but he’s still gained a substantial swing and is likely to win.

At the moment I see this electorate as 4 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Garland and Labor vs Greens for the seventh seat. Labor would be favourites but not overwhelmingly so.

8:08 – Let’s go to Bass, where 24 of 51 booths have reported.

The Liberal vote is on 3.3 quotas. Bridget Archer will win one seat, Michael Ferguson will win the second, and the third will likely go to whoever gains the most from Archer’s surplus. Rob Fairs is well out in front. It looks like Simon Wood will lose this game of musical chairs. It’s unlikely the Liberals can win four seats, but there is no clear leading contender for the final seat.

Labor is on two quotas. Janie Finlay will be re-elected. The race for the second Labor seat is totally open, with Jess Greene on 0.26 quotas and former federal MP Geoff Lyons on 0.22 quotas.

The Greens are on 1.53 quotas, with 0.91 sitting with sitting MP Cecily Rosol. She will definitely be re-elected. The lack of a clear #2 Greens candidate will likely dash their chances of winning a second seat, like it did in Franklin in 2024. If that vote was split evenly between two candidates they would both have a good chance.

There’s a number of other candidates worth watching for the final seat. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are on 0.39 quotas (and that’s with only one candidate, so there’s no leakage) and George Razay is on 0.27. The Nationals are on just 0.19 and Rebekah Pentland is on 0.15.

8:01 – And Sarah Lovell, Labor MLC and election night panellist, just referenced the 2PP. I assume that is calculated using the kind of preference flows are based on federal elections. Under optional preferential voting I would expect the figures to be much less favourable, and that is a better comparison for Tasmanian elections, where voters typically don’t need to number preferences beyond their main party of choice.

7:57 – A broader comment on the electoral system: in single-member electorate systems, Labor can usually benefit from preferences from independents, Greens etc. But in Hare-Clark, their vote is big enough to actually win seats. So a low primary vote for the ALP can’t be boosted with preferences anywhere near as much.

7:53 – Let’s have another look at Lyons, where 28 out of 71 booths have reported.

The Liberal vote is up by 4.4%, which would ensure they retain their three seats but isn’t likely to be enough for a fourth. Guy Barnett and Jane Howlett are both close to a quota. Their colleague Mark Shelton is in the lead amongst the others.

The ALP vote is down by 7%. The party would’ve been hoping to pick up a third seat. Right now that vote drop brings them down to almost exactly 2 quotas, so they’d retain their two seats. Jen Butler and former federal MP Brian Mitchell are clearly out in front to win the first two Labor seats, while short-term MP Casey Farrell is tied for fourth place on the Labor ticket.

The Greens vote is up by 2.6%, over a quota, so they should retain their seat.

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are on 0.66 quotas while the Nationals are on 0.36 quotas. More than half of the Nationals vote is sitting with John Tucker.

So by my read this produces a result of 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. For the final seat, the Shooters are in the lead. A fourth Liberal could also have a chance depending on how the vote splits.

7:44 – My first election night Instagram post is up now. Regular updates will be back soon.

7:25 – The second booth in Franklin is another rural booth, but a bit more established than Southport. Peter George is on 35.9%. He is looking very strong to win a seat.

7:23 – Voting progress in the south is not as advanced, but we do have three booths in Clark. Independent Kristie Johnston is on 20.7%, which is a swing of 13%, while the Labor vote is down 14.5%. The Liberal vote is up 9.2%. The Greens vote is steady. Elise Archer is on just 3.9%. On these figures, Johnston’s surplus would be crucial to deciding the final seat.

7:21 – The Liberal vote is up by 3.5% in Lyons. The Labor vote is down by 4.7%. The Nationals are on just 4.0%, less than half of the Shooters vote.

7:18 – The Liberal vote is up 5.8% in Braddon, while Labor is down 8.6%. Garland’s vote is up 11.3%. Gavin Pearce is clearly the second-placed Liberal candidate there.

7:14 – We’re starting to get a more substantial vote share in Bass and Braddon. In Bass, there’s a 5.5% swing to the Liberal Party. Bridget Archer’s vote is at almost 20%, with Rob Fairs on just half a quota. There’s a 5.9% swing against the ALP. Sole sitting Labor MP Janie Finlay is close to a quota. Geoff Lyons is the second-placed Labor candidate, but not far ahead of the pack. Rebekah Pentland has barely troubled the scorers from the ungrouped column on 1.8%. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are on 7.3%.

7:08 – Both the ABC and Poll Bludger agree that the very small results so far show a swing towards the Liberal Party and away from Labor. Labor’s vote is down in four of five electorates, and the Liberal vote is up in four electorates. The Greens so far have swings in their favour in four electorates (although it’s a very small swing in Braddon).

7:04 – The first booth in Franklin is Southport, and it’s showing a 15.3% vote for Peter George, 6.6% for David O’Byrne and a swing of 11.9% against Labor. The swing against the Greens is actually quite small. It’s worth noting Southport is a very small booths at the very south-western fringe of the electorate, in the most rural part of Franklin. We are expecting David O’Byrne to do better at the eastern end of Franklin and George to do better in the west.

6:57 – Early results are starting to come in:

• In Bass, the Lady Barron booth shows a 9.5% swing to the Greens, 2% from Liberal and 2.2% from the Liberal Party. The Shooters are on 9.4% and the Nationals are on 2.4%.
• In Braddon, the Irishtown booth (a tiny one) has shown a 15% swing to the Liberal Party.
• A mobile team has reported in Clark, with Labor on 41.6% and Liberal on 36%.
• No results have reported in Franklin
• In Lyons, Broadmarsh has reported a 6.6% swing to the Liberal Party, 8.5% from Labor, and 5.2% to the Greens. The Nationals are on just 0.9% while the Shooters are on 8.5%.

These are all tiny results and don’t have much significance.

6:44 – Worth noting that 132,493 Tasmanians had either voted pre-poll or returned their postal vote by the end of Friday – that compares to 108.529 in 2024. So while we can’t make a final comparison, the early vote share is up significantly.

6:00 – Polls have just closed for the 2025 Tasmanian state election. I’ll be live-blogging the results here tonight. I’m also going to have a go at posting some video updates on Instagram if you’re interested in that sort of thing. Stay tuned for some results updates right here.