South-West Coast – Victoria 2022

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  1. This margin is very small for a rural seat like this, you’d think this would be one of the safest Liberal seats in the state.
    While I reckon Polwarth is more likely to flip than this seat due to the population growth in the Eastern part of the seat, it’ll be interesting to see how this seat performs in the election. Since 2014, there’s been almost a 10% drop in the 2PP for the Liberals. Britnell very well may have built up a local profile since Napthine’s retirement, but she did suffer an 8% swing against her in 2018.
    There were also 2 independent challengers in 2018 who made up over a quarter of the vote but didn’t make the 2CP, interesting to see where those votes flow back to.

  2. Ham the figures for distribution of preferences of the independents and Green should be on the vec website. But I note Naptine’s 10% margin is no longer. If we look at Wannon 2022 vote which is this area plus the part in Polwarth.. mainly Colac minus Hamilton township. This seat is slightly less lib inclined than the Federal seat. The result there against the independent was close… but would pick a probable lib retain

  3. I’d be hoping for a strong campaign from the ALP given the recent federal election result. Roma’s right wing nonsense should make her vulnerable but it is populist stuff so I don’t know. It’d take a strong and concerted opposition campaign.

  4. Labor came very close here in 2002 with this electorate having a history of being marginal, I could see Labor winning here but the LNP holding onto Polwarth.

  5. I think Polwarth is more likely to be a Labor gain than South West Coast, especially considering Polwarth has shifted towards more Labor-leaning areas around Torquay and the population growth in the Eastern part of the seat. I think SW Coast will depend on whether or not Roma Britnell has managed to set herself up as a strong local member. Napthine kept the seat relatively safe for a while due to his high profile in state politics.

  6. But don’t forget that Napthine had some close calls when he was a sitting member so there is a latent Labor/independent vote if the right candidate harvests it.

  7. The Thing about the South West Coast is that the three coastal towns of Warrnambool, Portland and Port Fairy have always significant Labor vote due some industrial history. It is really only the thumping result in the more inland rural booths which is makes it more liberal than the state has a whole. In Fact the Federal seat of Wannon is no where near as Safe for the Coalition like Mallee, Nicholls and more recently Gippsland.

  8. South-West Coast and the federal seat of Wannon often has an independent running and getting at least 10% of the votes. It’d be interesting to see if an independent candidate runs and shifts the ALP vs LNP 2PP.

    There are some similarities between here and the NSW South Coast – larger centres by the coast, especially those with ports or historical pasts, tend to lean Labor whilst small, inland towns tend to lean to the LNP.


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