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You can tell that the cost of living was bitting here as there was still a small anti Labor swing here. I personally feel if Labor hadn’t turned its fortunes around and Liberals campaign hadn’t been so poor that this seat would’ve flipped. This is a must win for the Liberals to return to government.
In WA in 2025 while statewide result was pretty much status quo but Outer Suburbs/Regions had a swing to Libs while Inner and Middle suburbs had a swing to Labor.
I do think this seat will flip in 2028 along with Bullwinkle/Moore purely was WA is the state that will likely correct the most.
I think this should be aliberal gain in 2028. The sitting member has health issues and it’s only a matter of time before she’s unable to be medically fit enough to represent the seat.
@ John
Please do not talk about stting MP health Ben warned last time as wel. However, i accept that Libs should gain it in 2028 election purely as WA should see a correction and this seat is more Anglo outer suburban.
Right sorry. Anyway I think the libs should win this in 2028 regardless
@ John
I accept that regardless of if Labor has a sitting MP or not Libs should win this. Also i think Libs should win in 2028 regardless of if leader is Susan Ley, Hastie or Angus Taylor.
Susan Ley would need to improve in the polls to do that at the rate shes going shes going nowhere. Everyone i speak to wants her gone.
Even if this is an outer suburban seat it would have to take a monumental stuff up for the Liberals to win this on a 6.8%+ swing. In a normal election year it’s not like 6.8% is considered a ‘normal’ swing even for a correction one. That or the Liberal candidate has to be a good one: Moderate and high profile and they’ll have a chance.
@ tommo9
I agree although i think it is accepted that WA margins are probably inflated for Labor so there is room for it to go down.
@ John, this thread is not about Susan Ley rather it is that Pearce is probably one of the more likely gains for Libs even in a bad scenario
Nimalan. They are interconnected. Susan Ley has not gone anywhere and on current polls would not win this seat.
@ John
ok. Fair Point, 6 news projects if an election was held today Bullinwinkle would fall to Libs. I think the point i am trying to make is that Libs dont need a home state advantage to win Pearce it is close to to the state trend line and unless Libs can win a majority of WA seats there is no hope of even a minority Coalition government. In 2022, Labor needed Pearce but traditionally Labor does not need Pearce or Moore especially now that have seats like Dickson, Bonner, Banks Leichardt, Bass, Deakin and Braddon which they did not win in 2022. I also think Labor has a better chance of holding Tangney, Swan and Hasluck than Pearce, Moore and Bullwinkle.
I would think an important point to make about Pearce is that it spans a growth corridor, and there are a lot of people who will be in this electorate in 2028 who were not in 2025. Which way are these voters likely to lean? (Genuine question.)
Actually it showed it as a nats gain
Nicholas the libs managed a small swing this year despite nationally failing miserably. Same as in Ballarat.
@ John
i have commented in Bullwinkle thread for you.
@ Nicholas
The new voters will tend to be Anglo Millenials who are puchasing their first homes and starting families. As they are not renters despite their age they will be friendlier to Libs as they have entered the housing market. Even among Millenials the Coalition does better among those who have purchased a home than those who are renters. I think is a seat like this people are probably indifferent on climate, LGBT issues so will focus on bread and butter issues so you can make your assumption about the swing. Unlike many growth areas which tend to diverse like Greenway this is largely Anglo i dont think Nationalism will be a turnoff maybe voters here dont care either way.
I noticed looking at census data that Alkimos and Eglinton (at the northern end of Pearce, probably among the fastest-growing) are strikingly similar to Yarrabilba (in Wright) in demography – new suburbs, young families, but not CALD, and not university-educated. They even voted similarly in 2025. (Labor won around 60% of the 2PP.)
The other point i would make is that Pearce had a very strong No vote for the Voice higher than Statewide/Nationwide result. Poor Ethnic seats like Watson, Blaxland and Calwell had a better result for the Voice than Pearce. Also more CALD growth areas like Point Cook, Clyde North, Aintree (Gorton) were Yes voting. In 2022 Scomo alienated 3 key demographics Chinese Australian voters, Teal voters and WA. I think WA voters who are not Small L Liberals or CALD are the easiest to win back of the 2022 loses.