Pearce – Australia 2028

You can tell that the cost of living was bitting here as there was still a small anti Labor swing here. I personally feel if Labor hadn’t turned its fortunes around and Liberals campaign hadn’t been so poor that this seat would’ve flipped. This is a must win for the Liberals to return to government.

In WA in 2025 while statewide result was pretty much status quo but Outer Suburbs/Regions had a swing to Libs while Inner and Middle suburbs had a swing to Labor.
I do think this seat will flip in 2028 along with Bullwinkle/Moore purely was WA is the state that will likely correct the most.

I think this should be aliberal gain in 2028. The sitting member has health issues and it’s only a matter of time before she’s unable to be medically fit enough to represent the seat.

@ John
Please do not talk about stting MP health Ben warned last time as wel. However, i accept that Libs should gain it in 2028 election purely as WA should see a correction and this seat is more Anglo outer suburban.

Right sorry. Anyway I think the libs should win this in 2028 regardless

@ John
I accept that regardless of if Labor has a sitting MP or not Libs should win this. Also i think Libs should win in 2028 regardless of if leader is Susan Ley, Hastie or Angus Taylor.

Susan Ley would need to improve in the polls to do that at the rate shes going shes going nowhere. Everyone i speak to wants her gone.

Even if this is an outer suburban seat it would have to take a monumental stuff up for the Liberals to win this on a 6.8%+ swing. In a normal election year it’s not like 6.8% is considered a ‘normal’ swing even for a correction one. That or the Liberal candidate has to be a good one: Moderate and high profile and they’ll have a chance.

@ tommo9
I agree although i think it is accepted that WA margins are probably inflated for Labor so there is room for it to go down.
@ John, this thread is not about Susan Ley rather it is that Pearce is probably one of the more likely gains for Libs even in a bad scenario

Nimalan. They are interconnected. Susan Ley has not gone anywhere and on current polls would not win this seat.

@ John
ok. Fair Point, 6 news projects if an election was held today Bullinwinkle would fall to Libs. I think the point i am trying to make is that Libs dont need a home state advantage to win Pearce it is close to to the state trend line and unless Libs can win a majority of WA seats there is no hope of even a minority Coalition government. In 2022, Labor needed Pearce but traditionally Labor does not need Pearce or Moore especially now that have seats like Dickson, Bonner, Banks Leichardt, Bass, Deakin and Braddon which they did not win in 2022. I also think Labor has a better chance of holding Tangney, Swan and Hasluck than Pearce, Moore and Bullwinkle.

I would think an important point to make about Pearce is that it spans a growth corridor, and there are a lot of people who will be in this electorate in 2028 who were not in 2025. Which way are these voters likely to lean? (Genuine question.)

Actually it showed it as a nats gain

Nicholas the libs managed a small swing this year despite nationally failing miserably. Same as in Ballarat.

@ John
i have commented in Bullwinkle thread for you.
@ Nicholas
The new voters will tend to be Anglo Millenials who are puchasing their first homes and starting families. As they are not renters despite their age they will be friendlier to Libs as they have entered the housing market. Even among Millenials the Coalition does better among those who have purchased a home than those who are renters. I think is a seat like this people are probably indifferent on climate, LGBT issues so will focus on bread and butter issues so you can make your assumption about the swing. Unlike many growth areas which tend to diverse like Greenway this is largely Anglo i dont think Nationalism will be a turnoff maybe voters here dont care either way.

I noticed looking at census data that Alkimos and Eglinton (at the northern end of Pearce, probably among the fastest-growing) are strikingly similar to Yarrabilba (in Wright) in demography – new suburbs, young families, but not CALD, and not university-educated. They even voted similarly in 2025. (Labor won around 60% of the 2PP.)

The other point i would make is that Pearce had a very strong No vote for the Voice higher than Statewide/Nationwide result. Poor Ethnic seats like Watson, Blaxland and Calwell had a better result for the Voice than Pearce. Also more CALD growth areas like Point Cook, Clyde North, Aintree (Gorton) were Yes voting. In 2022 Scomo alienated 3 key demographics Chinese Australian voters, Teal voters and WA. I think WA voters who are not Small L Liberals or CALD are the easiest to win back of the 2022 loses.

Pearce is Projected to be Liberal gain if election was held today.
It probably has demograhics that will be suitable for Libs namely non Teritary educated White voters.

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=1259228976223439&set=a.446518107494534

That model places quite a lot of weight on the trend from 2022-2025 and seems to assume the trend will continue at a similar pace, hence it also says Kooyong and Bradfield will fall to the Liberals and the Nats would win in Bendigo and Bullwinkel – fun for some speculation but from what I can tell it’s prior trend and national/state polling data spitting that out rather than an MRP-style demographic model. That Resolve poll also had a curiously good sample of WA/SA/TAS/territories compared to the main states which might have resulted in a WA-specific boost for the Coalition

A 6.4% 2PP swing is quite a big ask for the Liberals.

The current 2PP margin might be over-inflated. The 14% 2PP swing in 2022 was the biggest at that election. The 2PP result was influenced by the Mark McGowan boost of 2022. Another factor was Christian Porter’s retirement. After that came Peter Dutton’s unpopularity and Labor’s effective campaigning in 2025 keeping the swing to the minimal.

Pearce was historically a Liberal seat, though successive redistributions have made this more Labor-friendly. It once covered rural areas including the Wheatbelt.

The mortgage belt and semi-rural belt nature may make the seat more swingy and sensitive to economic conditions. As for the Liberals, there are much lower hanging fruit in WA like Moore and Bullwinkel.

I have no idea what Bradfield will look like on Election night in 2027/2028, but if I want to bet anything, the campaign in Bradfield will probably be ugly. Nicolette Boele has three years to repay the trust of her constituents, as does Monique Ryan.

As for Pearce, while it did trend right this year, it does still sit on a healthy margin. The developments around Yanchep might act as a mortgage belt area within this seat too, though the red tide will have to recede eventually. Tracey Roberts’ profile in the seat may help Labor, as she was a star pick in 2022 being the mayor of Wanneroo, but only if she recontests.

@Votante are you putting a line through the Liberals gaining Curtin back?

@CJ, Curtin is on a higher margin albeit it’s IND vs LIB. There’s a possibility that Curtin can become competitive pending Liberal candidate quality and campaigning. The result in Curtin in 2022 and 2025 had less to do with Labor’s popularity than it did in Bullwinkel or Moore.

The buffer on this seat is deceptive as it is well known how volatile outer suburban electorates are as we saw with McEwen in 2013. Recent individual electorate polling has this as a Liberal pickup which I can see as a possibility especially if this is an open race in 2028. As I mentioned in the 2025 thread and other comments have mentioned as well that this seat has one of the highest mortgage stress, household stress and rental stress in the country so soon or later it will have some sort of impact.

@ CJ
I am not saying Curtin cant be won back but has different dynamics to Peace. Even if Covid had never happened there is a good chance Curtin would have still fallen in 2022 like its Eastern Seabord counterparts. Climate Change/Social policy will play a role in this seat and the sheer affluence means COL, Petrol Prices and interest rates are less of factor than in Pearce. I have often said apart from Robertson all seats that changed hands in 2022 were in WA, Had large Chinese Community (Reid, Chisholm Bennelong) or were Tealish (inc Boothby, Ryan, Brisbane and Higgins). Pearce is only of these and maybe the easiest demographic to swing back as China Relations/Net Zero will not be an issue here like in Tangney (China relations) or Curtin (Climate Policy). SpaceFish is 100% correct Outer Surburban mortgage belt areas especially Anglo ones like Pearce/McEwen are volatile.

Curtin is interesting as it can be tricky to put that loss down to one factor. Was it lost due to the Liberals’ inaction on climate change? Or was it lost because of the Liberals’ collapse in WA?

Interesting to note too, Kate Chaney is, to this day, the only Teal to defeat a female Liberal MP.

@CJ
That is the question. If Covid never happened, Climate debate would have still occured so Mackellar, Wentworth, Goldstein, Ryan etc would have probably still changed hands in 2022. However, without Covid relations with China would probably be the same as 2019 so Labor could have still held on to Bennelong, Reid etc. I also think many of the WA seats would not have changed hands in 2022 such as Hasluck on 2022 boundaries.
Celia Hammond was probably the most rightwing MP to loose seat to Teal in 2022. Katie Allen was a female MP but did loose seat to Labor in a Tealish seat. While WA would have been a added factor in 2022 the climate factor remains as well. While Pearce has only one factor.

prioir to the liberal collapse i actually think they could have won Curtin back. but eveidently they screwed it up and they didnt

The state government has released land around Jandabup and suburbs around which will continue to lead to population growth. It’s likely a future seat will be put out this way and could see Pearce pushed further out.

I would like the parts in Joondalup LGA removed from this seat. There is also population growth on the way to Two Rocks which means some parts East of Waneroo road maybe removed.