Ripon – Victoria 2022

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  1. Labor underperformed here in 2018: how much due to Staley’s popularity and how much that Labor’s candidate didn’t seem to have much of a local profile is unknowable. Labor’s new candidate is a former advisor to Andrews Martha Haylett.

  2. Some of it may have been sophomore surge. Louise Staley was elected in 2014 after the retirement of long term Labor MP Jo Helper. The redistribution has not helped her so she may be in for a struggle.

  3. I would say Labor has actually not lost the seat since 1999. In 2014 there was a radical redistribution which turned it into a notional Liberal seat even with a retiring MP Labor managed to get a swing to them. in 2018 Staley should have actually increased her vote as a sitting MP. I concede she managed to mitigate the state-wide swing to Labor but the swing in the regions especially there where there was sitting Coalition MPs was much smaller than in Metro Melbourne. I would say this is a toss up as the boundaries are favourable for Labor and the Libs have not managed to get a positive swing to them despite no sitting Labor MP since 2010 but there is a sitting Coalition MP.

  4. I think Louise Staley is gone here. I don’t think the swing against Labor that may occur in the west, north and southeast suburbs will happen in regional areas. They were not affected by the long lockdowns to the same extent and if anything may be thankful that the government implemented the very successful ring of steel around Melbourne to protect them.

  5. @Adam wasn’t regional Victoria also put in lockdowns at certain stages despite been nowhere near and COVID cases.
    @Bob what makes you think Labor will get a swing to them.
    Labor have a very good chance of holding here if the Labor vote holds up in Ballarat in both the existing and newly included Ballarat suburbs. Although the Labor margin may be inflated as the newly added suburbs are from Wendouree which swung towards Labor. I’m not sure about how much the newly added suburbs swung but they may not always be that strong for Labor

  6. I don’t really know much about this area, is there much agriculture in the northern part of this seat or a national voting demographic. I’m curious as if the Ballarat suburbs in this seat end up joining the rest of the Ballarat suburbs in Wendouree to make more Ballarat based seats could this be a Nationals target. It would likely have to expand into National territory when it loses these Ballarat suburbs as well.

    I’m probably getting ahead of myself but just thought it’s something interesting to consider.

  7. I would be hopeful of an alp win here.. the liberals need to improve their vote by 3% to hold. The swings here after Joe Helper retired have been very small.

  8. @ North East, i would say North west around St Arnaud which is Northern Grampians Shire is agricultural and part of the Wimmera Regions and would be prime Nationals territory. Much of the rest of the seat is part of the Goldfields Region which interestingly retains a Labor tradition more than a century after the Goldrush ended. Also look at Beechworth which is also a Labor leaning town. This is a bit like Wonthaggi which is a Labor town even if Coal mining ended in the 1950s.

  9. Much of the area covered by Ripon swung away from Labor in the most recent federal election. The Nats won Maryborough and Labor only won Carisbrook by a tiny margin.

  10. Federally, there were 2PP swings to the Nats where they are the sitting member (Mallee), 2PP swings to Labor where they are the sitting member (Ballarat), while Wannon saw swings to an independent – away from both Labor and the Liberals. A good chunk of the population of Ripon is the Ballarat commuter belt/acreages/tree-change country, which tends to vote Labor at both State and Federal levels. Federally, the Greens also saw strong swings in some of these booths including Miners Rest, Clunes, Creswick and Linton.

  11. @Nimilan Some regional areas may maintain their Labor voting pattern despite the reason why no longer been there due to things like the socio-economic situation becoming worse due to loss of industry, people moving into other blue-collared unionised work within the area, the union mindset still existing within the area and maybe a bit of ‘i vote Labor because my dad voted Labor and his dad voted Labor’, this could especially be true in a former mining town like Wonthaggi.

  12. Mallee is a safe non Labor seat so no real effort there. Ripon is marginal since 1999 before that was a more pro Labor version of Bolte’s old seat. Joe Helper had a personal vote and if he were the Labor candidate in the last 2 elections he would have won. The swings in those 2 elections were minimal

  13. @ North East, that is a good point. What is interesting is that areas like Ripon where there is a loss of industry including textile manufacturing around Marybrough are often prime areas for populism. Much of this area could have been like the Rust belt (USA) and strong for ONP etc. However, here Labor has remained strong even without a sitting member for almost 8 years. Contrast this with areas around Bathurst-Lithgow (NSW) and La Trobe Valley (VIC) where there has been a long term drift away from Labor both at a state and federal level.

  14. While Ripon doesn’t contain the most popular tree change towns, there is possibly a bit of that phenomenon going on in the electorate and keeping Labor competitive

  15. The three historic townships on the Ballarat-Maryborough railway line (Creswick, Clunes and Talbot) have all been attracting a steady flow of tree-changers since the line re-opened. They also attract tree-changers who have been priced out of Daylesford and Castlemaine. Similar story for the cluster of townships and localities around Smythesdale, without the railway line, but a 20 minute drive into Ballarat CBD makes them a popular tree-change choice for Ballarat workers.

  16. The population change is very interesting…. Bathurst Lithgow used to make a Labor seat at the state level and at a Federal level with majorities in both towns outpoll the 60/40 split in orange. When Labor last won Calare the Lithgow vote used to be 66 to 70% Labor. Now Labor wins Lithgow in parts but not overwhelmingly and Calare is safe lnp over 60%. Mr Tooles vote in Bathurst is much better I think 65%…. wonder why such change.

  17. Mick, I see Bathurst as one of the coal mining regions. Like other areas such as Central Qld, these places are no longer favourable for the modern Labor Party who have lost support amongst blue collar, working class voters.

  18. This seat has had very limited swings in the past few elections but the boundaries have changed significantly. Liberals need a fairly decent swing to hold this seat. Staley is also one of the most senior Victorian Liberals, don’t expect them to give this up without a big fight.

    Also on paper oddly enough this does not look like a seat Labor would be competitive in.

  19. At the last 2 elections there were 2 one per cent swings here. Now there is a 3% margin with the boundary changes.. it seems this seat does not swing much… so likely alp win


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