Western Metropolitan – Victoria 2022

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  1. Bernie Finn’s move from the Liberals to the DLP will likely make Catherine Cumming’s re-election harder, and at the same time reduce the prospect that the Liberals (whoever heads the ticket post-Bernie — Andrew Elsbury?) could bring in a second Liberal here. All without Bernie necessarily having much prospect of winning a seat himself.

  2. @Andrew from 3040, thanks for the update about that! In fact, this electorate is quite fascinating in that 3/5 of the members quit the parties they were elected with at the 2018 election. They’re a bunch of rebels out west!

    Current Members:
    Catherine Cumming IND (ex Justice), Kaushaliya Vaghela IND (ex Labor), Bernie Finn DLP (ex Liberal) and Ingrid Stitt (ALP) with Cesar Melhem (ALP).

    Looking at the history of this seat, it’s always been a 3-2 Left-Right Split (Except 2006 4-1), with a general result of 2 ALP, 1 GRN (Labor in 2018), 1 LIB , 1 Right Party (Lib in 2010). So looking at that, Bernie is in with a chance if he gets a good flow of preferences his way from other parties. Justice was lucky to get 3 seats at the last election, but West Metro was actually their best result! Looking at current polls, Labor is down a bit but it’s still a few months out from the election. I’d put this as 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 LIB, 1 possible DLP/UAP/surprise or if polling improves, the 3rd ALP could stay. One notable thing was the tight alliance of PHON/UAP/LDP etc right-wing parties at the Federal Election and I wouldn’t be surprised if this stays for Victoria 2022 election. This would see them control preferences tightly so that one of them would have a high chance of getting that final seat. All in all, Bernie has a chance! I’ll be watching this one closely.

    Jun 22 Prediction: 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 LIB, 1 DLP


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