Williamstown – Victoria 2022

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  1. The results for the suburb of Williamstown at the federal election surprised me a little. I thought it would be the type of place to swing against the Libs but some booths had swings against the Libs and others had small gains. These booth still sit in the mid 60s vs Lib except for Williamstown West booth at 54% ALP. Williamstown also isn’t as young as i thought it would be. Is it mostly housing or are there apartments there.

  2. @ North East, methinks that gentrification along the Bay may mean that the Libs improve in Williamstown, Altona and Seaholme a bit like the discussion on the Carrum thread. Altona and Williamstown are more middle class and softer for labor than more inland Western suburbs.

  3. @Nimalan True. It seems like former industrial and port suburbs along the beach in Melbourne are now gentrifying as wealthier people move there to be closer to the water. I believe Williamstown itself had a major port.

  4. @ North East, Correct Williamstown had a port. These suburbs are a bit more suburban than inner city so an example of Suburban gentification while nearby Footscary/Yarraville are trending Green as they gentrify and becoming inner city hipster suburbs in contrast to Williamstown/Altona. I think Kingsford Smith is a Sydney analogy to Gellibrand.

  5. @Nimalan I agree with the comparison to Kingsford Smith though I would add that Kingsford Smith has been trending towards Labor since the 2013 election when previously it had been trending Lib. Might show that with the Libs’ direction towards social conservatism rather than economic and fiscal conservatism, it is putting off demographics like in Williamstown, like in Macnamara, like in Kingsford Smith.

  6. That’s a good point Dan, I was going to use Macnamara as a comparison too – specifically the Port Melbourne area which has a similar history to Williamstown as a working class port settlement that has gentrified and turned quite middle class (but culturally both seem to still embrace their working class past).

    While being more inner city geographically, Port Melbourne actually still has a similar village atmosphere to Williamstown which is quite disconnected from the rest of the inner city and also hasn’t been an area where the Greens have made many inroads either.

    So the gentrification areas like St Kilda & Elwood basically flipped those suburbs from red to green; gentrification in Port Melbourne was flipping it from red to blue until about 2016 (when the Liberals almost won). But I think in both Williamstown and Port Melbourne now that trend has clearly been reversing since the dumping of Turnbull signified what now appears to be a long term repositioning of the Liberal Party.

  7. @ Trent 100% agree with your analysis. I do agree St Kilda-Elwood are very different from the rest of this seat. I think even if Turnbull had not been dumped the Libs will not have made inroads into St Kilda-Elwood but would have done well in the rest of the seat. Wondering if you think a Teal would could win this seat especially if they can find a professional Jewish woman as a candidate with strong ties to this seat. I dont feel the Teals could so well in St. Kilda-Elwood or Prahran Windsor in neighbouring Higgins but could do very well in Albert Park/Middle Park etc.

  8. I don’t think a teal would win but it would definitely change the dynamic of an already fascinating contest, where not only the 3PP count would be super close but the 4PP stage would be interesting too.

    I totally agree with you that the teals would barely make a dent in the whole area around St Kilda, Balaclava, Elwood, Windsor & Prahran. The Liberals have always been weak there – apart from the eastern most booth in Prahran – and I can’t see Labor/Greens voters shifting right/centrist for a teal.

    I think the demographic of areas like Port Melbourne, Albert Park & Middle Park – and possibly Caulfield if as you say there is a strong Jewish teal candidate – is definitely more suited to a teal, but again the reason I think one wouldn’t win is because a lot of the motivation to switch to a teal would be irrelevant.

    For a teal to win, I really think it relies on not only Liberal votes flipping teal, but also Labor/Greens votes flipping teal to make sure they get into second place.

    Labor/Greens voters will really only make that switch in seats like Goldstein & Kooyong where they know Labor and Greens have no chance of winning; but in seats that are Labor held like Macnamara or marginal (and now Labor held too) like Higgins, they really don’t have any incentive to switch their vote.

  9. @ Trent, agree with you about the motivation factor and your analysis of the suburbs above. In the other Teal seats Labor and Green supporters tactically voted Teal to oust the Libs. However, i am also wondering if there may have been some voters who voted Labor or even Greens with some level of hesitation (In suburbs such Albert Park, Middle Park and Caulfield North etc) and may have actually preferred a candidate who was green on environmental issues but also some who supported but also business friendly policies. The Teals are more ambitious on climate than Labor and there is some hesitation among some in the Jewish community about voting Green due to their stance on Middle Eastern politics. I do think it maybe a 4PP count rather than a two horse race such as Goldstein or Kooyong.

  10. @Bob Maybe on the old boundaries but it has become more suburban and less green friendly now.


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