Williamstown – Victoria 2022

The results for the suburb of Williamstown at the federal election surprised me a little. I thought it would be the type of place to swing against the Libs but some booths had swings against the Libs and others had small gains. These booth still sit in the mid 60s vs Lib except for Williamstown West booth at 54% ALP. Williamstown also isn’t as young as i thought it would be. Is it mostly housing or are there apartments there.

@ North East, methinks that gentrification along the Bay may mean that the Libs improve in Williamstown, Altona and Seaholme a bit like the discussion on the Carrum thread. Altona and Williamstown are more middle class and softer for labor than more inland Western suburbs.

@Nimalan True. It seems like former industrial and port suburbs along the beach in Melbourne are now gentrifying as wealthier people move there to be closer to the water. I believe Williamstown itself had a major port.

@ North East, Correct Williamstown had a port. These suburbs are a bit more suburban than inner city so an example of Suburban gentification while nearby Footscary/Yarraville are trending Green as they gentrify and becoming inner city hipster suburbs in contrast to Williamstown/Altona. I think Kingsford Smith is a Sydney analogy to Gellibrand.

@Nimalan I agree with the comparison to Kingsford Smith though I would add that Kingsford Smith has been trending towards Labor since the 2013 election when previously it had been trending Lib. Might show that with the Libs’ direction towards social conservatism rather than economic and fiscal conservatism, it is putting off demographics like in Williamstown, like in Macnamara, like in Kingsford Smith.

That’s a good point Dan, I was going to use Macnamara as a comparison too – specifically the Port Melbourne area which has a similar history to Williamstown as a working class port settlement that has gentrified and turned quite middle class (but culturally both seem to still embrace their working class past).

While being more inner city geographically, Port Melbourne actually still has a similar village atmosphere to Williamstown which is quite disconnected from the rest of the inner city and also hasn’t been an area where the Greens have made many inroads either.

So the gentrification areas like St Kilda & Elwood basically flipped those suburbs from red to green; gentrification in Port Melbourne was flipping it from red to blue until about 2016 (when the Liberals almost won). But I think in both Williamstown and Port Melbourne now that trend has clearly been reversing since the dumping of Turnbull signified what now appears to be a long term repositioning of the Liberal Party.

@ Trent 100% agree with your analysis. I do agree St Kilda-Elwood are very different from the rest of this seat. I think even if Turnbull had not been dumped the Libs will not have made inroads into St Kilda-Elwood but would have done well in the rest of the seat. Wondering if you think a Teal would could win this seat especially if they can find a professional Jewish woman as a candidate with strong ties to this seat. I dont feel the Teals could so well in St. Kilda-Elwood or Prahran Windsor in neighbouring Higgins but could do very well in Albert Park/Middle Park etc.

I don’t think a teal would win but it would definitely change the dynamic of an already fascinating contest, where not only the 3PP count would be super close but the 4PP stage would be interesting too.

I totally agree with you that the teals would barely make a dent in the whole area around St Kilda, Balaclava, Elwood, Windsor & Prahran. The Liberals have always been weak there – apart from the eastern most booth in Prahran – and I can’t see Labor/Greens voters shifting right/centrist for a teal.

I think the demographic of areas like Port Melbourne, Albert Park & Middle Park – and possibly Caulfield if as you say there is a strong Jewish teal candidate – is definitely more suited to a teal, but again the reason I think one wouldn’t win is because a lot of the motivation to switch to a teal would be irrelevant.

For a teal to win, I really think it relies on not only Liberal votes flipping teal, but also Labor/Greens votes flipping teal to make sure they get into second place.

Labor/Greens voters will really only make that switch in seats like Goldstein & Kooyong where they know Labor and Greens have no chance of winning; but in seats that are Labor held like Macnamara or marginal (and now Labor held too) like Higgins, they really don’t have any incentive to switch their vote.

Could see this as a Greens target in the future.

@ Trent, agree with you about the motivation factor and your analysis of the suburbs above. In the other Teal seats Labor and Green supporters tactically voted Teal to oust the Libs. However, i am also wondering if there may have been some voters who voted Labor or even Greens with some level of hesitation (In suburbs such Albert Park, Middle Park and Caulfield North etc) and may have actually preferred a candidate who was green on environmental issues but also some who supported but also business friendly policies. The Teals are more ambitious on climate than Labor and there is some hesitation among some in the Jewish community about voting Green due to their stance on Middle Eastern politics. I do think it maybe a 4PP count rather than a two horse race such as Goldstein or Kooyong.

@Bob Maybe on the old boundaries but it has become more suburban and less green friendly now.

Could be a sizeable swing against Labor here. They’ve just announced that they plan on closing a major road between Newport and Williamstown to “remove” the level crossing (ie, they’re closing the road instead of removing the crossing).

There is significant community backlash against the proposal and against Melissa Horne MP.

@Mark, also in Yarraville they will close off Anderson Road even though that is actually the heart of the suburb. They cited heritage listing which is fair enough but in that case along with Spotswood as i mentioned on the Hawthorn thread they could have just let it remain especially if MM2 means this section of track will be quieter. i feel the level crossings west of Newport except along the Altona loop should be removed due to Wyndham growth corridor but Williamstown/Altona Beach area is not a growth corridor. The saving could then be used to keep a rail bridge for Champion street and work towards more pressing level crossings such as Madden Grove/Kooyong.

Melissa Horne isn’t being receptive either, basically putting out a statement that pretty much said “I understand, but we’re going to press ahead with these plans”

As I live in the seat/area, it’s confirmed that I will not be voting for Labor. Absolutely terrible planning.

I haven’t got any intel to add re Andersons Rd, but the Champion Rd crossing is being replaced by extending Akuna Dr through to Maddox Rd. The outcome will actually be to force trucks etc to go that way rather than driving through the residential area north of the railway line.

One other thing the armchair experts may not be aware of, is that the Werribee railway line along here along has a major petroleum pipeline underneath it, which limits what changes can be made below-ground. Same thing essentially made putting any of the Dandenong line underground through Carnegie (although that’s a gas main).

You could argue that all of the above could be better communicated, but ultimately they’re listening to the engineers.

Sorry – left out an important part. Champions Rd is at the start of a fairly tight curve into the Y junction with the Willy line. This means that any rail-over/under removal is not possible. Therefore, it would have to be either road over or under, which would require moving the pipeline, which would require at least 2 years’ notice and enormous increase in costs.

Hence the much easier option being to close it, and re-route via Akuna Drive.

Yeah still completely disagree with it Expat, as do the majority of people who use the road. Hence the backlash.

Will be putting Labor last based on that point alone.

Expat, closing the champion rd crossing and forcing vehicles on to Maddox rd worked terribly when there was a petrol leak 15 years ago. It turned 5 minute drives into 30 minutes. Given the increase in population density since then, I hardly expect it to be an improvement now.

Your little quip about being an “armchair expert” is hilarious considering I’ve lived in the area for over 25 years. Daniel Andrews has been in government for 8, Melissa Horne for 4. Government rarely knows better, and this is a prime example.

It’s better to just leave it as is. Closing the road is a terrible terrible proposal and is going backward, not forward.

Expat, are you familiar with the civil technical details? If you are, then you are like me and know that what is released in public/media briefings is often not the full story.

Mark, whilst you may be familiar with the local traffic patterns, in government and state transport planning it is not always possible to satisfy everyone’s needs. Sometimes technical considerations take priority over the community concerns, which seems to be the case for this example so that PT benefits can be maximised over private transport. You quip about extended commute times, but the whole purpose of state transport planning is to shift people away from private cars to using public transport or walking more. Many modern cities in Asia and Europe do away with majority of private vehicle use.

Yoh an, except this is not good.

It’s a major road that emergency services make use of regularly.

None of it is a good idea. Boggles the mind that both of you continue to defend the government and their plans when you’re not even in the area.

Can’t wait to put Labor last now. Might even vote early.

From what I remember of that area, Maddox Road isn’t any sort of major arterial. North of the railway line, it’s basically just a residential street.

It’s not the sort of road that you’d try to actively funnel traffic onto by closing other nearby roads.

Exactly my point, Mark. 15 years ago when they closed Champion Rd and forced traffic on to Maddox Rd due to a pipe leak, it was a disaster.

The people that support this proposal have rocks in their head at the very least.

Mark, i agree with you that the closing of Champion Road is a mistake earlier in the thread i said that i supported grade seperation west of Newport at Champion Road, Maddox Road and Maidstone road due to the Wyndham growth corridor. Would you support as a local resident if the Yarraville and Spotswood had the level crossing remain and a proper seperation occur in the former 3 as those have no stations it would be easier. Spotswood has a lovely heritage station so i would prefer if they do right rather than rush it. As mentioned with MM2 the section of track between Footscary and Newport will become quieter

Nimalan, I already explained above why it’s not possible for Champion Rd to be separated.

Per the engineers, the options are either leave it as it is, or close it.

MM2 won’t be built for another decade or two (if ever), so isn’t really relevant to anything right now – but more importantly, the current plan is to eventually remove every crossing possible, even the relatively quiet ones.

I think the status quo option – leave it in the current condition, is the preferable solution given that Nimalan and Mark have mentioned there is no suitable arterial road nearby for relocating traffic and that the rail line has lower patronage because it is a spur line not a main line. Therefore, the disruption caused by passing trains is less than having to remove the level crossing. it is fine

@ Expat, Regarding Champion road. I do have the civil engineering details on hand with me. so i will take your work with it However, residents like Mark who live in the area should raise concerns especially as Maddox Road covers a residential area north of the rail line and having extra cars on the road may raise concerns. Is it better to spend more money and time and relocate the pipeline for example.

Regarding the second point on MM2. The original PTV Network Development Plan stated that it should be delivered in Stage 3. Original Target Date for completion was 2023. The question should be why is there no movement it is much needed to enable a rail line to Wollert access to Fishermens Bend, Doncaster Rail. Infrastructure Victoria has backed it. Local councils such as Hobsons Bay, Port Phillip, Whittlesea and Melbourne have advocated for it. Has SRL meant that the government has gone on a tangent? I am not making a partisan point here as i have also criticised the other side for example inability to delivery Southland station. All governments should be scrutinised and i am believe there should be a a major debate on this with these exact questions being asked. I think major construction can wait till metro tunnel is completed. However, there is no reason why land acquisition, route planning, soil testing and station locations cannot be determined yet. Much of the planning for metro tunnel was done before Andrews during the latter years of the Brumby government and is becoming a reality now.
https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/assets/PTV-default-site/footer/legal-and-policies/growing-our-rail-network-2018-2025/PTV_Network-Development-Plan_Metropolitan-Rail_Overview_2016update.pdf

I partially agree with @Expat, and partially with the other comments! Removing the Champion Rd LX would certainly be challenging, but I think it could be done. You could get a road over rail solution to work with some land acquisition, and you could do a rail bridge, it would just be very long (going over both Maddox and Champion) and you might need to reconfigure the track into the stabling at Newport. So I’d agree a separation is challenging but it’s not impossible. I don’t think engineers are saying it’s “impossible”, incidentally – just “not feasible”, which is more of a judgment call about whether the benefits are worth the cost and hassle.

Personally, I think a better option might be to extend the new Maddox Rd rail bridge so that it spans over a new Challis St extension that links either to Akuna Drive or back to Champion. With this option, you can still get the rail bridge back down before the stabling at Newport and you’re not adding heaps of length to the rail bridge.

In any event, closing Champion Rd is a bad idea and will cost Labor votes. I think a bunch of Labor voters will go Green (or Independent, if one nominates – is Cr Peter Hemphill running again?) and the Lib vote is low enough that they may not finish in second place after the primary count. If that happens, the outcome could be quite unpredictable.

Looking at federal results, Greens seem to easily outpoll Liberals in a decent chunk of the booths and aren’t far behind in the others, while Labor isn’t quite going over the top on primaries, getting results more in the low 40s. This is the kind of condition where Greens could eke out a surprise win on Liberal preferences.

Greens are running the same candidate as they did federally, though it was a late announcement and in general the Vic Greens campaigns seem quiet.

Could be much more interesting than usual

There’s larger Lib vote here than in other potential Green target seats like Footscray or Pascoe Vale. In normal circumstances that means Lib preferences will flow to Labor should the Libs drop to 3rd place and allow them to retain but with the Libs preferring the Greens ahead this time, it could make this seat more interesting.

FWIW, the Election Forecaster here reckons 97% chance Labor retain, 3% chance Greens taking it. 0% chance Libs:

https://www.aeforecasts.com/seat/2022vic/regular/williamstown

Essentially their PV estimates based on polling are Labor around 50%, Libs about 20%, Greens about 17%. Even with Lib preferences, it would need a pretty big swing from Labor to Greens for them to overtake and win, but I guess it’s possible.

Interestingly, looking at their stats, it says a Labor vs Green final count is less likely than Labor vs Lib BUT it would actually ultimately be a closer contest.

This seat could be a Liberal target in the future given the primary vote increase despite setbacks elsewhere. Looks to be going in the opposite direction compared to its “rival” in Albert Park. Perhaps the Port Melbourne-Williamstown rivalry may become political!

@ Ian, this could be possible in the future but the issue was the swing occurred in the wrong part of the seat this election. It occurred around Altona North which is a working class deprived area away from the Waterfront while Seaholme which is becoming wealthier virtually had no swing. Similar to Point Cook, where there was a big swing in working class Altona Meadows but much less in affluent growth area of Point Cook itself.

It seems ALP votes are still high in affulent Williamstown possibly due to working class past and many are upper middle class white collar/STEM progressives similar to Port Melbourne and Carnegie