Point Cook – Victoria 2022

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  1. Hasn’t been mentioned previously but I think this seat is in play, especially with the retiring high-profile incumbent MP

  2. Probably a Labor victory with a ~5% swing to the Liberals. If the Victorian Liberal Party wasn’t run by complete imbeciles with no concept of electoral strategy, they would win here.

  3. This is an area that is vehemently anti-lockdown and anti-mask which would be a concern to Dan Andrews.

  4. The state Libs’ strong Trump-like populist stance would play well here at the expense of the Eastern suburb seats.

  5. IMHO, if this seat excluded Altona Meadows and included Williams Landing instead it would be winnable for the Libs. Altona Meadows is solid working class while Point Cook/Williams Landing are growth areas with a middle class demographic.

  6. Well Lalor barely swung compared to other nearby seats, but that was with barely any effort. I imagine if the Liberals run a strong localised campaign they can maybe cut down the margin to 5%.

    I also think, as previously stated, that the Liberals should push for Williams Landing to be incorporated into the seat at the next redistribution; though working & middle class areas will likely both swing to the Liberals this cycle, it will likely be until well into the 2030s until they can make 50% of the 2PP in more established blue collar areas. These new growth areas, though volatile in how they vote, can be much easier for the Liberals to capitalise on.


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