Sydenham – Victoria 2022

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  1. Was just checking out the results in Gorton and noticed how (comparatively) low the TPP is in a lot of the booths within this electorate. The Victorian Liberals are pretty well hopeless but if they repeat their federal results here and in other electorates like Kororoit it’ll be very interesting.

    Labor’s margins are so high in these Western Melbourne electorates that it won’t even really matter, but it would definitely give them a jolt.

  2. I don’t honestly see Liberal really winning in any of these western suburbs seats as there is a real dislike to the LNP, however if an strong independent or if One Nation were to run it could cause trouble here. The western suburbs will be interesting to watch.

  3. @Bob Agreed. I am interested in how much these Western Melbourne seats might swing away from Labor rather than suggesting the Liberals have much of a chance in any of them. I think a lot of the swing may have been due to the relatively high primary vote for the UAP and ONP at the federal election, so we’ll see if that holds up at the state election or how many of those people either revert back to Labor or just vote for the Liberals, given I expect neither of the previously mentioned minor parties to mount much of a genuine campaign.

    I suppose you should never say never, so I can’t completely discount this as a potential long-term realignment beginning, but I know very little about Western Melbourne and am at the moment skeptical the Liberals’ attempts at making gains in outer urban safe Labor seats will pay off in the near future.

  4. The UAP as far as I am aware have never run at a state election – definitely not in Victoria. With spending limits they have no modus operandi. There is definitely a market in Victoria for some sort of ON right wing product but hard to see it being significant enough to win seats or affect the outcomes.

  5. It is harder to have UAP have so many ads in Victoria’s election due to donation laws so I have a feeling they may not get as many votes in State Election compared to the federal results. Btw, many UAP votes many just go to the Libs since Vic Libs made inroads to the anti-vax vote in contrast to the federal Libs

  6. Redistributed,
    I don’t see a micro party winning here but if they eat away enough at the ALP vote & it’s low enough then the LNP could benefit from that, however still think thats unlikely.


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