Footscray – Victoria 2022

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  1. The new boundaries greatly benefit the Greens, bringing in most of their strongest booths in the inner West. The federal outcome in Fraser will give an idea of the likelihood of a Green challenge here. Demographic change has favoured the Greens and choosing the right candidate for the electorate should make them competitive against a relatively low profile sitting member.

  2. The Greens, with a good candidate, have a decent chance at coming second (at least on 3CP, where it matters) in the electorate in November. The only seats the Greens have gained at a general election without coming second or first on 3CP at the previous state election are Prahran 2014 and Maiwar 2017 and they are/were 3-way marginal the Liberals/LNP have a decent chance of winning so the ALP are easier to overtake. This year`s Footscray result is likely to have an ALP primary in the 40s and so the Greens are unlikely to overtake them and the Liberals are unlikely to preference the Greens. Coming second on 3CP would make this an explicitly ALP versus Greens seat in 2026, likely increasing the Greens vote.

  3. It seems plausible to me that the Greens already came second on a 3CP basis in 2018. We of course have nothing confirming it, since Labor achieved a primary above 50% and the VEC tends to only counts preferences where necessary. I imagine based on the results last time combined with the redistribution, they will do a Labor vs Greens preference count off the bat this time though. Similar to what happened in Preston in 2014 and then 2018.

  4. The Greens came first in many of the federal booths here, up around 35-40% in many cases. And this is without the area being part of a targeted campaign. Preselecting the right candidate early will see the Greens competitive in this seat. A 40-40-20 split is not out of the question, with the winner determined by Liberal preferences.

  5. Agreed, and actually preselecting a candidate around about now wouldn’t be early at all. The lead candidates in Brisbane for example were selected many months earlier than this.

  6. Victoria keeping the discredited undemocratic GTV probably means it isn’t worth for the Greens to run a Upper House focused campaign in Western Metropolitan region, specially now that Essenden has been moved out of the region.

    If I were them, I would instead divert the resources into seats like Footscray and Williamstown. Last Election was a disaster for the Greens, so many things went wrong at the wrong time. That probably won’t happen again. And 2018 was a high watermark for State Labor as well in my opinion.

    With a good candidate & more resources and a low profile incumbent the Greens would be competitive here.

  7. The redistribution has been very useful to the Greens in Footscray at the expense of the Greens in Williamstown by transferring some of their best parts of the old Wiliamstown to the Greens with Footscray loosing its weaker areas for the Greens and Williamstown gaining (different) weaker areas for the Greens.

  8. @Ben Raue

    Is there something up with the figures in the map? How did the Liberals get 12% of the primary vote in West Footscray but only 8% of the 2CP?

  9. Nicholas,

    Turns out that anomaly is in the original data if you go to the VEC website, and thus in my data repository which I draw from to generate the maps. I don’t think they recheck the 2CP figures for Victorian state elections. In seats where a full distribution of preferences is conducted there’s usually some difference between the 2CP count (based on the booth counts) and the full DoP. They just don’t make sure the numbers add up the way the AEC does, so I guess this data stands.


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