Niddrie – Victoria 2022

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  1. Alright, so let’s suppose the Liberals embark on this strategy of targeting northwestern Melbourne, as some have suggested, following the federal election result.

    The lowest hanging fruit is Melton. The next is… hmm… this seat. With a 13% margin.

    So with a swing of 12% in northwestern Melbourne, the Liberals pick up a grand total of one seat. (And I feel I’m being generous in classifying Melton as “northwestern Melbourne” given its current boundaries!)

    Anyone think Niddrie is in play?

  2. Niddrie was a relatively marginal seat before the election, as was Sunbury. The conversion of Altona district into Point Cook district has also helped the Liberals there. The Liberals are also likely to be putting more resources into the west this time.

  3. The only thing i would say about Niddrie is that it is much more middle class than other Western Suburbs. The Western Fringe around Keilor is affluent (usually Liberal voting) and so is the Eastern Fringe around Aberfieldie. A lot of the suburbs here are the transition suburbs similar to Mulgrave in the SE Melbourne as the social divide is close to here. There is really no low SES or disadvantaged suburbs here. Airport West is maybe a bit more lower middle class with some light industry. IMHO this is a seat that the Libs can win in a high tide year. I am trying to think of Sydney equivilant for this area maybe McMahon west of the Cumberland Highway like Greystanes etc or Drummoyne without the water view. It is very Italian and i think the most Catholic seat in Victoria.

  4. @Nimalan Good analysis as usual! Neighbouring Sydenham strikes me as equally if not more middle-class, any explanation for why Sydenham is much safer?

    A somewhat unrelated question – How do you pronounce “Keilor”? Is the first syllable a /kiː/, /keɪ/, or /kaɪ/, and is the second syllable a /lə/ or /lɔː/?

  5. @ Nicholas, Regarding Sydenham your absolutely correct it is quite a middle class electorate with the one notable exception of Delahey which is a low SES area with a low SEIFA score. Delahey probably fits better with the St Albans electorate which is very working class. I have always wondered why Labor wins thumping margins in suburbs such as Taylors Hill, Hillside and Caroline Springs (in neighbouring Koroiot but demographically similar) as these 3 suburbs have higher median incomes and SEIFA scores than the Greater Melbourne average. I would say these suburbs are similar to West Hoxton, Carnes Hill, Middleton Grange etc . These suburbs tend to be young, aspirational and have a greater % of people of faith. It shows the weakness of The Victorian Liberals who don’t seem to be able to cultivate voters here where their NSW counterparts are able to do so in demographically equivalent areas. It maybe the fact that they do not seem to campaign and have the resources to churn out votes here. Interestingly, the Brimbank/Melton LGA border and the suburb boundary between Delahey and Sydenham are major socio-economic fault lines in Melb-

  6. If there is a serious backlash against Daniel Andrews here then maybe but it still feels a little out of reach here, its also worth noting that a lot of Labor voters went to One Nation, United Australia & Liberal Democrats with the Liberal Primary vote decreasing through here so unless any of these parties run here which One Nation could as well as Liberal Democrats I don’t see this seat being lost.

  7. It also seems to be the case that many Labor voters who switched their first preference to a right wing minor party still preferenced Labor above the Liberals.

  8. Although many did that, there was still a swing to the liberals in the federal election, so not all of them were putting Labor above liberals. Many, in fact, did the opposite.

    I personally think the anti-Dan vote showed itself at the federal election and will only be amplified in November.


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