Senate count update – one state left in play
The Senate count has been progressing for a week now and I thought it was about time to give an update (my previous post on the Senate is here). What is remarkable is how clear the count is. There appears to only be one...
Less marginal seats: the new shape of the electoral battleground
Last Saturday's election was not a landslide: far from it. While it appears the Liberal/National coalition has gained a small swing nationally, there are lots of areas which swung in the opposite direction.
So I was interested in zooming out to get a sense of...
Trends in minor party voting in the Senate
On Sunday I published a post focusing on the chances for each party in the Senate. Unsurprisingly we are expecting a shrinking of the Senate crossbench due to the half-Senate election and the concentration of low-polling Senate crossbenchers, but it is interesting to examine...
Big map of the day – swings by booth
For today's post I've put together a detailed map showing the two-candidate-preferred (2CP) vote in every booth across the country.
The map can be toggled between the swings and the total vote in each booth. Most booths are based on a Labor vs Coalition 2CP...
The state of play this morning
As my first post today I thought I would summarise the state of play in the House of Representatives.
As of last night I had called 141 seats as part of my analysis at the Guardian. This includes 72 Coalition seats and 63 Labor seats,...
Election day thread
Polls have just opened on the east coast in the 2019 Australian federal election. The handful of Australians who are yet to cast a pre-poll vote will be voting today in an election expected to be relatively close.
The latest polls have Labor in the...