WA redistribution – margins published


It’s taken some time as I’ve waited for some necessary data, but I’ve now compiled my own margin estimates for the 59 state electorates in Western Australia following the recent redistribution.

I won’t lay claim to originality: both William Bowe and Antony Green have previously published their own estimates. Mine are very similar with a few exceptions where my figures differ from one or both of them. I’m not saying mine are necessary better than others but I thought I should publish them as they will be used as the basis for my maps and tables at the time of the election.

The table of margins is below the fold, along with a map.

ElectorateOld boundariesNew boundariesIncumbent party
Albany5.15.9 ALP vs NAT
Armadale25.225.2 ALP vs LIB
Balcatta5.87.9 ALP vs LIB
Baldivis7.23.7 ALP vs IND
Bassendean21.521.7 ALP vs LIB
Bateman9.58.2 LIB vs ALP
Belmont11.411.4 ALP vs LIB
Bicton2.93.5 ALP vs LIB
Bunbury10.811.1 ALP vs LIB
Burns Beach2.54.3 ALP vs LIB
Butler19.420.5 ALP vs LIB
Cannington18.117.9 ALP vs LIB
Carine9.010.6 LIB vs ALP
Central Wheatbelt22.623.5 NAT vs ALP
Churchlands13.211.7 LIB vs ALP
Cockburn15.913.7 ALP vs LIB
Collie-Preston14.713.6 ALP vs LIB
Cottesloe13.314.1 LIB vs ALP
Darling Range5.86.0 ALP vs LIB
Dawesville0.70.9 LIB vs ALP
Forrestfield9.49.4 ALP vs LIB
Fremantle23.123.1 ALP vs LIB
Geraldton1.31.3 LIB vs ALP
Hillarys4.10.1 LIB vs ALP
Jandakot1.02.0 ALP vs LIB
Joondalup0.61.0 ALP vs LIB
Kalamunda2.52.4 ALP vs LIB
Kalgoorlie6.26.2 LIB vs ALP
Kimberley13.013.0 ALP vs LIB
Kingsley0.71.2 ALP vs LIB
Kwinana18.121.0 ALP vs LIB
Landsdale16.79.7 ALP vs LIB
Mandurah18.018.1 ALP vs LIB
Maylands17.917.9 ALP vs LIB
Midland13.012.8 ALP vs LIB
Mirrabooka19.223.5 ALP vs LIB
Moore13.914.7 NAT vs LIB
Morley11.412.5 ALP vs LIB
Mount Lawley4.04.0 ALP vs LIB
Murray-Wellington1.41.8 ALP vs LIB
Nedlands8.38.1 LIB vs ALP
North West Central9.510.1 NAT vs ALP
Perth11.812.6 ALP vs LIB
Pilbara2.32.3 ALP vs NAT
Riverton4.44.4 LIB vs ALP
Rockingham23.423.6 ALP vs LIB
Roe14.413.6 NAT vs LIB
Scarborough5.65.8 LIB vs ALP
South Perth7.17.2 LIB vs ALP
Southern River7.97.9 ALP vs LIB
Swan Hills14.511.9 ALP vs LIB
Thornlie15.815.8 ALP vs LIB
Vasse14.714.7 LIB vs ALP
Victoria Park16.516.3 ALP vs LIB
Wanneroo7.38.9 ALP vs LIB
Warnbro23.723.7 ALP vs LIB
Warren-Blackwood13.412.9 NAT vs ALP
West Swan17.119.2 ALP vs LIB
Willagee15.518.1 ALP vs LIB
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  1. Darling Range also changed due to the by-election. Alyssa Hayden should be pretty safe there.

    There’s a few retirements as well, if you’re keeping track. Ben Wyatt (ALP, Vic Park), Peter Watson (ALP, Albany), Mick Murray (ALP, Collie-Preston), Mike Nahan (Lib, Riverton), and Robin Chapple (Green, Mining and Pastoral). Vic Park and Riverton are safe enough, but the other three will be interesting – those MP’s are taking big personal votes with them, particularly Peter Watson.

  2. Peter Watson is very popular…… but do people in a country seat vote for a say in government. The margin in Collie- preston is big so labor should keep the seat.

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