2025 Australian federal election

@np sry I meant Solomon it might be a long shot but still in play

@John it really depends on the next NT general election but it still seems like the NT is a bit like Tasmania in a way: some people vote Liberal on the state level and Labor on the federal level (reversed Queensland), because the CLP does well in parts of Palmerston despite not winning many booths in Solomon in 2022. The CLP doesn’t have factions but it’s always tended to be moderate whilst still being agrarian, e.g the Rights of the Terminally Ill Act 1995 in the NT was passed by the CLP government which was overturned by the Euthanasia Laws Act 1997 in the Federal Parliament.

Anyway, I’ve updated my map of targets seats in 2025: https://jmp.sh/AnJrqzHk

Purple seats are major party targets, yellow seats are Greens targets, teal seats are teal targets and Fowler is pink as it is a target for the DLFCN and Labor. Darker shades indicate higher priority targets while lighter shades indicate lower priority targets.

Overall, the top target seats for the major parties on my map are Aston, Bennelong, Blair, Deakin, Gilmore, Hasluck, Lingiari, Lyons, Menzies, Paterson, Pearce, Robertson, Sturt and Tangney. Two additional top targets are Curtin (Liberal/teal) and Macnamara (Labor/Greens).

Every marginal seat made it to the list of targets, and a few safe(r) seats made it to the lower end of the list of targets (including the old bellwether seat of Makin).

The main target regions are Western Sydney, Sydney’s Inner West, the Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne, the Moreton Bay region of Brisbane, Perth, pockets of Adelaide, the entire Northern Territory, the Central Coast, the South Coast and Monaro regions of NSW, and eastern Tasmania. Random targets can be found elsewhere however, such as Bennelong and Parramatta in northern Sydney, Blair in the outer suburbs of Ipswich and the Somerset Valley, Paterson in the Hunter region and many others.

Changes made in the updated version of the map:

Seats added:
* Bonner, QLD
* Brisbane, QLD
* Bruce, QLD
* Cooper, VIC
* Hunter, NSW
* McMahon, NSW
* Moreton, QLD
* Petrie, QLD
* Warringah, NSW
* Wentworth, NSW
* Whitlam, NSW
* Wills, VIC

Seats removed:
* Durack, WA
* Isaacs, VIC
* Monash, VIC

Some seats also changed tiers, going up to be more targeted or down to be less targeted.

Overall, the areas that changed the most were Greater Western Sydney (tier increases and two new targets: McMahon and Werriwa), the Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne (tier increases in some seats as well as some a new target seat (Bruce) and the removal of Isaacs), the central part of Brisbane along the Brisbane River and near the CBD (four new target seats: Brisbane, Bonner, Moreton and Ryan) and the Central Coast (Dobell became a mid-tier target and Robertson remained a top-tier target, and those are the only two Central Coast-based federal seats). There were no changes in South Australia or Tasmania, and there are still no target seats in the ACT.

@ Nether – I like your map. Good work.

What’s your darker Teal shade for North Sydney mean? It’s of course cuttingly narrowly teal held (against both LIB on 2Cp and ALP on 3CP).

How do you relatively assess the North Shore 4? Of course this is all based on the current boundaries which we could know the new draft boundaries within a few weeks

@ np
Good work
i agree with Bonner, Petrie, Brisbane etc being added. I also agree that Durack, Issacs and Monash being removed which is what i suggested previously. Some suggestions and queries
1. I certainly agree Wills is in play due to Palestine, Peter Khalil being more right-wing, AUKUS being unpopular here. However, i am pretty confident that Cooper is not in play for the Greens. Ged Kearney is more progressive, more popular here, less impact due to Palestine as a result a different cultural mix to Wills. At least i think there should a shading difference to indicate this.
2. I am not sure why Whitlam is a target seat usually a very strong Labor seat unless your factoring a potential redistribution.
3. I am not sure why Bruce is included i know margin seems low. However, there was anti-lockdown backlash which reduced Labor’s previously thumping margin in Dandenong. Also Palestine will drive a swing to Socialists/Greens here which will increase Labor’s 2PP against Libs unless your factoring a redistribution?
4. I dont think McMahon is interesting to be honest, i agree about Werriwa. Chris Bowen has held this comfortably in 2013 a lot of people predicted he would loose but he did not really suffer any backlash.
5. Why do you think Moreton is in play?

@Nimalan thanks.

1. Yeah on second though I should’ve given Cooper a lighter shade.
2. Whitlam is a light target because the redistribution might move it into the Southern Highlands but if it remains a Wollongong-based seat it won’t be in play.
3. Bruce was margin-based but yes redistribution could potentially help.
4. When Chris Bowen retires McMahon should be more competitive. It includes some Liberal-voting suburbs so the redistribution might be better for the Liberals.
5. Moreton is in play for a teal. I think it could go to a teal since the LNP, Labor and Greens votes are all over 20%.

@High Street I put North Sydney darker than the other teal seats because of the redistribution.

@ NP
Once the redistribution is finalized. I look forward to seeing a revised map and i will make suggestions again. A few points.
1. I agree that McMahon is more socially mixed and Liberal friendly than seats such as Blaxland, Watson, Chifley and Fowler. In someways it like Werriwa, Macarthur and Greenway safeish Labor rather than Rocksolid.
2. I dont agree Moreton is play for a Teal. For this reason, the Teals depend on tactical voting by Labor and Greens so they make the 2CP. There is few if any where they could get there on their own. In seats where Labor is competitive the teal usually flops this happened in Boothby and the state seat of Caulfield. For this reason, i dont think the Teals can win Higgins or Sturt either as they are more mixed seats where there is a decent left-wing vote even though those suburbs have Tealish small l liberal suburbs. I do agree that a Teal will appeal in the affluent Riverside suburbs of Moreton but they will have little if any appeal in the rest of the seat which is much less well off.

@Yoh An Yes, the majority opposition to expanding Kennedy came out of the Katter Party. Bob Katter likes to reference the size of Kennedy, but it’s actually only the sixth largest. It’s not even the largest electorate in Queensland – that honour goes to Maranoa.
Reducing Leichardt to “Cairns and a bit” gives you more sensible boundaries all the way down the coast except for Townsville which would need to be split. It makes it easier to align the Federal electorates with the Local Government boundaries, so Dawson would end up with Mackay and The Whitsundays for example.
That also fixes the problem of Kennedy dipping into and out of the coastal areas at Innisfail and the Townsville suburbs.
Noosa’s location in Wide Bay is an anomaly – although I’m sure most residents would prefer it as its own Federal electorate. It’s the natural consequence of breaking “communities of interest” all along the Queensland coast. Queensland is currently sitting at the halfway point for an additional seat, so by the time the numbers are called I think that the current growth will push it to 31 and it will almost certainly be added on the Sunshine Coast.

@gympie “Labor voters are incredibly disciplined, perhaps 1 in 200 doesn’t follow the HTV. By comparison, anywhere from 5 to 15% of Greens voters end up preferencing LNP over Labor.”
Not even close. Labor voters in Queensland average around 85 percent sticking to the HTV, although that also includes OPV for State elections. Greens run anywhere between 60 and 80 percent that follow the HTVs, depending on the seat. The gold standard used to be the National Party, which had a 93 percent HTV follow through. The worst is One Nation, who seem to mostly ignore the official HTV and return to their tribe for preferencing.

Mark – I also read there was opposition to the Kennedy/Leichhardt split from Cape York communities, who argue that there is a closer connection between these areas and Cairns compared to inland communities dominated in Kennedy. Although I do agree that fixing this will be better than having all other regional cities being split up.

@Nether Portal
I think that The Greens will build on their win in Brisbane and are likely to retain it after the next redistribution.
Depending on what happens within the ALP I think Moreton is very much in play, but not for the Teals.
Petrie won’t shift, but a lot of that is due to changing demographics. The tradie vote in Petrie and Longman is huge, so voters who would normally side with the ALP as employees have a different perspective when they become self-employed. Petrie also has an increasing religious base as well as significant South African and New Zealand imports who are gradually becoming citizens and eligible to vote.
Bonner could be susceptible to a change but there are also significant demographic changes happening to the western part of the electorate and massive gentrification occurring along the waterfront areas in both Brisbane and Redlands.
I’d add Leichardt to the list as a possible ALP pickup because Entsch is retiring.

@Yoh An The main argument was that TSI and Cairns Airport were connected, which a) is true; b) doesn’t really mean a lot considering the small size of the communities north of Cairns. Looking at the booth results from the last election (https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-168.htm) most of the counting is handled by the various Remote Mobile Teams. That’s a total of 2,293 votes plus 143 for Horn Island, 1,565 for Weipa, 1,003 for Thursday Island and 423 for Bamaga. The Remote Mobile Teams fly in on a specified day, so if you think about it as a 1-day prepoll you’re pretty much there.
Having said that I once calculated the vote split in the island communities between the 2012 State vote (the best LNP result) and the last Federal result. There was a huge personal vote for Warren Entsch and his office really does work those communities hard, even basing their second electorate office on Thursday Island.

@Yoh An That would mean that Kennedy would probably lose Charters Towers and Cassowary Coast councils and retreat out of suburban Cairns and Townsville. So Kennedy wouldn’t touch the sea until north of Cairns. Kuranda OR Port Douglas would probably be the new boundaries and the southern border with Warrego would move south, allowing Warrego to expand east and take some of the overflow from Groom. That also allows Townsville to be split into two electorates, north and south.

@Nimalan yeah I’ll make another federal map when the redistribution is released. In the mean time, I’ll update my NSW state map and I’ll make some maps for other states and territories.

@Ben Raue can you please unlock the NT 2024 page? I still can’t comment on it.

On North Queensland there are basically two approaches:
1. Do nothing – Kennedy, Leichhardt and Herbert are all basically on quota – 1.0% or less either way.
2. Try and clean up the coastal Qld regional city boundary mess. One possible way would be to move Mount Isa and Cloncurry to Maranoa. Then Kennedy to pick up the Dawson voters in Townsville. Kennedy becomes – partly – the second Townsville seat. And then rejig everything else down the NSW border. You would need to find new homes for Warwick and/or Kingaroy.

From previous experience both the AEC and the Katter clan would prefer Option 1.

@Redistributed what might happen with Groom? Will it become entirely Toowoomba-based or will it retain the rural areas around it like Gatton?

@Redistributed
Spot on. Although I’d be inclined to keep Mount Isa in Kennedy and possibly even go down to Winton, because otherwise the numbers get too difficult. Kennedy could lose Charters Towers to the South Townsville seat and the Cassowary Coast and gumboot country to North Townsville. South Townsville would get Burdekin and Dawson would be Mackay and The Whitsundays.
Warwick and Kingaroy would fit into Wide Bay once Noosa comes out. So you’d have an Outer Sunshine Coast Region of Gympie, Maryborough, Kingaroy and Nanango. Or you could add Hervey Bay to Wide Bay and move Flynn west to the South Burnett and pick up Kingaroy there.

@Nether Portal Toowoomba is getting too big to fit the regional areas into Groom. The recent Council election had an enrolment of 108,630 and the city is commuting distance from Brisbane.

@Mark Yore if Groom does become Toowoomba plus, then independents like Suzie Holt would fair better as her vote was largely concentrated in the city.

Groom is almost 4% under quota as of the February figures. Maranoa is almost 6% under. Wright and Blair are of course substantially over. It feels like heresy but maybe the best outcome is for Groom to come down the range a bit so that Maranoa can take Oakey and Pittsworth and co… as opposed to expanding into the Burnett region, or Mt Isa.

Of course by the time this redistribution happens Qld will probably be able to claim its 31st seat, so that’d put Groom at or just under quota as-is.

Either way the next Qld redistribution promises to be just as much of a painful mess as the last one.

I agree that Groom should still remained centered on Toowoomba as its primary community of interest but come down the range and take on some of the Lockyer Valley. Blair and Wright need to be drastically reworked. Reorienting Forde is probably also going to be a factor in that jigsaw puzzle. But you’re right, just ONE MORE DIVISION will surely make life easier.

@Mark Yore a few things I’ll note though:

1. Warwick is in the far south (it’s southwest of Toowoomba) so I don’t know how it could fit into Wide Bay with Kingaroy.
2. Dawson is already Mackay and the Whitsundays.

@AlexJ Maranoa could easily take in the Somerset Valley from Blair which would make Blair an Ipswich-based seat, but it would mean the LNP wouldn’t be as competitive there as they were when it included the Somerset Valley (towns in the Somerset Valley (like Esk) are rural and strongly vote LNP).

I took a more detailed look at the February figures for Qld. It’s a bit moot of course since there won’t be a redistribution before the election. But all these problems should look pretty similar 15 months from now.

Leichhardt + Kennedy + Herbert are all very close to quota, no changes needed per se.

Dawson + Capricornia + Flynn are all way under, collectively about 18% under.

Hinkler is a little over, Wide Bay is fractionally under.

Fairfax + Fisher are collectively about 14% over so could in theory resolve the issues to their north on their own.

Longman, Petrie and Brisbane are collectively 23% over while Dickson, Lilley and Ryan are collectively 16% under. So the Northside internal issues are resolvable but there’s a need to export some population.

Bonner, Moreton and Rankin are collectively 26% under, with Griffith slightly over, Bowman and Oxley slightly under.

Blair + Wright + Forde are collectively 26% over.

Maranoa and Groom are collectively about 9% under.

So in terms of subregions we need to get the Brisbane Northside excess population into the Darling Downs and the SEQ SW into SE Brisbane.

Agreed but it will also depend on projected numbers

@Nether Portal 1) Dawson is about half of Mackay, most of The Whitsundays except for Collinsville, all of Burdekin and part of Townsville. Taking it south and west would expand into the gap south of Sarina and west of Finch Hatton, add Collinsville and lose anything north of Gumlu. 2) Sorry, you’re right. I was thinking of Nanango, not Warwick.

Also one thing I did forget was the population projections for Greater Springfield, currently split between Oxley, Blair and a little bit of Wright. It’s projected to grow to 105,000 people by 2030; but that’s BEFORE the changes outlined in the updated Shaping SEQ planning document.

Why does the planning document matter? Because it’s a relatively short-term outcome (2046) with most of the changes front-loaded. I’m currently in Rochedale, right on the Brisbane side of the border with Logan. My block is 2 hectares and currently going through the delights of dealing with BCC on a Development Application. Right now it has one house on it. The application adds another 8 house blocks and 17 town houses.

Come July 1 when all SEQ have to have their planning policies amended to match the State Planning Policy, that capacity will go up to somewhere between 80 and 160 three-storey dwellings as a High Amenity area. If we look at the amendments in the Kurilpa (West End) plan the height limit goes from 32 storeys to 274 metres (the aviation height limit in the CBD).

By 2046 the plan is to have an extra 2.2 million people in the Greater Brisbane Region requiring an extra 900,000 homes. https://planning.statedevelopment.qld.gov.au/planning-framework/plan-making/regional-planning/south-east-queensland-regional-plan

i think WA could produce as many as 7 new mps at the next election

make that 8 including the new division

Climate 200 have released a list of seats theyre targeting at the next election

Electorates in the sights of Climate 200
Target seat MP Margin

Labor
Bean (ACT) David Smith 12.9
Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins 13.7

Liberal
Deakin (Vic) Michael Sukkar 0.2
Moore (WA) Ian Goodenough 0.7
Casey (Vic) Aaron Violi 1.5
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton 1.7
Monash (Vic)* Russell Broadbent 2.9
Wannon (Vic) Dan Tehan 3.9
Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher 4.2
Durack (WA) Melissa Price 4.3
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino 4.3
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley 16.4
Liberal-Nationals
Groom (Qld) Garth Hamilton 6.9
McPherson (Qld) Karen Andrews 9.3

Nationals
Cowper (NSW) Pat Conagahan 2.3
Nicholls (Vic) Sam Birrell 3.8
Calare (Vic)^ Andrew Gee 9.7
Mallee (Vic) Anne Webster 19.0

Independent
Curtin (WA) Kate Chaney 1.3
Mackellar (NSW) Sophie Scamps 2.5
Goldstein (Vic) Zoe Daniel 2.9
Kooyong (Vic) Monique Ryan 2.9
North Sydney (NSW) Kylea Tink 2.9
Wentworth (NSW) Allegra Spender 4.2
Indi (Vic) Helen Haines 9.1
Warringah (NSW) Zali Steggall 11.0

Possible
Sturt (SA) James Stevens 0.5
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsay 10.1
Moncrief (Qld) Angie Bell 11.2

I honestly dont know how they can win Deakin, Bean or Franklin. Franklin and Bean are only possible if the Libs run dead to help a Teal defeat Labor. While Deakin is not tealish at all and more purple so Teal will flop and may get less than <5%

@niamlan the only one i think might be vunerable is Bradfield due to the redistribution and a rerun of Boele though the swing back to the coalition and CoL being the main focus cou;d help him retain it

@ John
I agree Bradfield is the best possible Teal gain as it is demographically Tealish and a Teal did ok last time made the 2CP and forced the Libs to preferences.
In seats such as Moncrieff, McPherson i can the Teal making the 2CP as Labor/Greens are weak so their supporters will tactically vote Teal as they have no prospect to gain the seat themselves. It is the same in some safe Rural seats even if the Teals dont win they are likely to make the 2CP.
In a seat like Deakin Labor can win the seat so their supporters have no interest to vote tactically for a Teal.

Bean – it’s not clear where on the political spectrum the independent push in Bean is coming from or who it is aiming for. David Smith is certainly not a high profile member and there is a view that he is not very effective. If the independents are leaning to centre left they have to deal with the Greens who represent an acceptable alternative for some Labor voters and one that is known. If the independents aim for the centre/right they could undercut the Liberal vote but Green preferences would be enough to get Labor home. It’s hard to see the path to victory for independents without a strong issue – most of the likely issues are ones that the Greens would claim as their own.

@Nimalan I think you’re correct – Jo Dyer and Claire Ferres Miles didn’t get any cut through in their seats with small ALP vs LNP margins. The idea that Labor can’t win but a teal can was especially dubious in Labor held Hawthorn in Victoria – I think the teal campaign was unhelpful and a straightforward “re elect Kennedy” campaign in the area would have been more successful.

I will note in Kooyong 2019 Oliver Yates was running a fairly high profile “Teal” campaign but the momentum shifted to the Greens as soon as they preselected Burnside, so it doesn’t just go one way. IIRC Voices for Ryan were more than happy with Elizabeth Watson Brown and backed her in instead of looking for an independent to run in 2022, and it paid off.

I think 2025 a good pathway for independents to win will be the Michael Regan/Judy Hannan method where they are a well known and respected quantity politically and are jumping tiers. It doesn’t always work (e.g. Kevin Mack in Farrer 2019) but I think that’s the play. To my knowledge Tom Tate and most of the GCCC leadership are Liberal party members so not sure who’d be able to come out of the woodwork there.

@ John
Interesting point about Hawthorn, if you look through the state threads prior to the 2022 state election we actually had an extensive discussion about Hawthorn.i think Trent actually hit the mark. Hawthorn was a special case for Labor, while they won a shocking win in 2018, they probably did not see themselves holding it longer term. They probably wanted a Teal to win so they could entrench themselves in that seat. I visited Hawthorn several times leading up that election. I saw virtually no corflutes, volunteers. The libs accuse Labor of running push polls to get their supporters behind the Teal in Hawthorn. Contrast that to the middle class seat of Bayswater where Labor ran a very viable campaign. In essence, Labor wanted to fight the Libs in Middle Australia and let the Teals fight the Libs in the private school blazer belt. Labor was happy to swap Hawthorn for Glen Waverley if a teal ran in Nepean they have also been willing to run dead there and pick up Hastings which is more middle income instead. Caulflield was a different case it is a more mixed seat with genuine strong Labor and Greens area so they were unhappy that a Teal ran. While i think Labor would have wanted a Teal to win in Hawthorn they are probably not upset about loosing it. In hindsight they probably wished they spent more time in Polwarth and Croydon instead.

Other thing if you look at polling booth results. The Teal outpolled Labor in the more densley populated booths along Glenferrie Road, Cambewell Junction etc. So it is likely younger more engaged voters shifted to Teal while older voters who are “true belivers” did not want to strategically vote Teal when they had a Labor member.

See the comments below
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/vic2022/malvern2022/comment-page-3#comment-777175

one thing il say even though labor and the greens arent in aformal coalition that coud all change when it becomes imposible for labor to win enough seats to govern in their own right

The interesting thing about the Vic teals is that when they didn’t make the final 2, their preferences flowed strongly to Labor, about as strongly as Labor preferences flow to them over the Liberals. IIRC Torney still lost the 2CP vs Pesutto. I think a similar story with NSW teals – OPV messes with things but you can confirm teals wouldn’t have won Lane Cove if they made the runoff for example.

However another note – Most teals ran open tickets but I think they could be an untapped preference source. Claire Ferres Miles in Casey did actually do an HTV preferencing Greens and then Labor, and it seems to have had strong follow rates. Greens did not target Casey and have been on the decline in what was once one of their strongest areas in Victoria, yet it came out as one of their strongest Liberal held targets on 3CP in the end.

So Climate 200/teals could still swing the outcome in seats even when they’re not expected to poll 2nd. It’s part of their marketing that they don’t preference, but not fundamental to it. Or they could do what Yates did in 2019 – have a split ticket where both halves preference the Greens over the “preferred major”. That led to an 80% flow from Yates to Burnside.

Interestingly Kerryn Phelps doubled down and actually preferenced the Liberals, leading to a huge divergence between the 2PP and 2CP and cementing the idea only teals can win the seat (which IMO is true for some teal areas but not all – Labor to seem to be picking up steam in North Sydney for example). So there’s motive there too.

@ John (blue avatar)
Labor was interested in North Sydney even though they in the end did not make the 2CP. I think Federal labor was different to State Labor in the sense they were less confident about picking up traditional bellwether seats such as Forde, Petrie, Lindsay etc they did in many seats target “Doctors Wives” in Brisbane, North Sydney and Higgins. The Victorian labor party had others paths so did not have the same interest in those demographics.

@john nS is probably gonan cease to exist

If Climate 200 were really serious they would target Barnaby Joyce in New England and Keith Pitt in Hinkler. Two MPs that have been vociferously pro fossil fuels and carbon.

In New England a Teal would likely make the 2CP but i am not sure if they can win. In hinkler i am not even sure they will make the 2CP

Out of that list of Teal targets only Bradfield seems to be a reasonable target that could very succeed (and topple one of the last remaining moderates in Paul Fletcher in the process). Wannon and Casey maybe at a stretch but for every part that’s gentrified/tree-change influenced will be balanced out by the conservative rural/outer-suburban vote. Moncrieff and McPherson possibly, especially the latter with Karen Andrews retiring and apparently 4 men are running for pre-selection. A prominent moderate woman with credentials could make the seat competitive.

The fact that Climate 200 even think they could get a seat like Mallee or Groom is quite laughable. They’re quite possible some of the safest Coalition seats out there. And don’t be fooled by the small margins in Durack and Forrest, they should all bounce back next election given they’re usually safe Liberal on a good day.

As someone who lives in SA, Grey is never going to stand a chance (rural/agriculture demo dominates whilst Whyalla and Pt Pirie are unionised Labor areas), but Sturt could be a ripe target for a Teal for those who think James Stevens is toeing the party line too much as a moderate but don’t want to vote Labor or Greens. If Labor could come within a bee’s dick of beating Liberals last time on a low Primary vote and Greens preferences, then a more moderate and well-known independent should easily win it next time round.

I wonder if the Teals should also try and target Berowra. Yes it’s outer-metro but it’s on the upper North Shore, is quite affluent, contains Hornsby which is a small-l liberal area and would be a worthwhile target.

It’s silly to debate Bradfield as a teal target. It will be dramatically redrawn by the redistribution. Either it will be abolished or it will absorb so much of North Sydney that from a teal perspective it will be more about retaining their third seat in the region than winning a fourth.

Ben
It depends on how the commissioners redraw the surrounding seats. In my proposal to the AEC, I advocated having Bradfield take in Frenchs Forest and Belrose. In that case, it was only gaining 8,000 or so voters in Chatswood from North Sydney. In my proposal, I proposed abolishing Warringah with North Sydney moving eastwards into Mosman and Manly. All of North Sydney west of the Pacific Highway and Greenwich would go to Bennelong. On Bradfield, Paul Fletcher has probably had his scare and if he was sensible would be working the electorate much harder.

A credible independent did run in Hinkler in 2022 – Jack Dempsey. Not sure if he was climate 200 backed but he was to the left of the Nats. He came 3rd and Pitt was already at 49% when he was excluded. Could have potential but not while the LNP leader is a Queenslander.

I don’t see Barnaby ever losing New England for as long as he lives. He’s been reelected in landslides despite being a destabilizing force on his party and a low functioning alcoholic that “wants government out of his life”. Why would he ever quit?

@Ben Raue yes I forgot to factor that in. Could be possible that North Sydney absorbs the southern part of Bradfield and Bradfield is renamed North Sydney (given Nth Sydney is a Federation seat). Will be interesting to see if that means Paul Fletcher will have to contest pre-selection for that seat given the Liberals have already chosen Gisele Kapterian for North Sydney all else being the same. Kylea Tink vs Paul Fletcher would be quite an interesting matchup, one that I suspect will see Kylea Tink hold unless the redistribution takes in more of the southern parts of Bradfield than other seats, which would give Fletcher (who’s been fairly quite and uninspiring this term) an advantage.

@raue wouldn’t Bradfield become the third seat if ns was abolished? It will either be ns or Bradfield that goes so they will either have 2 or 3 in cluding bradgoedl.

Yes exactly. But there’s 3 sitting teal MPs, there won’t be room for a fourth, whatever the seats are called.

I know Nicolette Boelle has been running for Bradfield for two years but I find it implausible that she’s going to run against Kylea Tink if the third teal seat is named “Bradfield” after the redistribution.

I agree with comments that Barnaby Joyce won’t lose to anyone and not even a teal candidate.

A reason why a teal or independent could run in New England is to scoop up protest votes from loyal Coalition voters who dislike Barnaby or the LNP’s climate change policies or their culture wars. There will also be Greens/Labor voters who will vote tactically and back such a candidate. You could probably apply the same reasoning for any regional seat or even Dickson (the LOTO’s seat).

Zali Steggall won Warringah in 2019 in similar fashion by tapping into the resentment of Tony Abbott. A big difference between New England and Warringah is that New England is socially conservative and is way more economically dependent on resources and primary industries. Add to that, an independent can’t put climate change as their main focus as it will spook voters.