2025 federal election guide now live

Yes, if you’re going to run exit polls on pre-poll the most basic responsibility is to adjust for that skew, and I don’t think News has been doing that.

I’ve had three texts from the Brass Band monkeys 🙈 🙉 🙊 from three separate numbers, because I block and delete each one.

Had some robocalls from my existing MP, but that was months ago. And – guess what? It’s delete and block all over again.

Lots of comments to read so I’ll start by replying to the first ones:

@Real Talk I think if the regional independents side with Labor it’ll be like 2010, the voters in those seats won’t like it. In the Sydney and Melbourne teal seats this will be different even if they are still notionally Liberal seats.

@Watson Watch I’m certainly not better off.

@Marh I think global factors have little to do with the election, or at least they shouldn’t. The outcome of this election won’t change whether Donald Trump is POTUS or not and it won’t change Trump’s policies either.

@ nether portal the regional independents (teals anyway) support labor. Gee will probably support the libs

I think it’s in the coalition interest to force labor into a deep minority especially given the state of the Senate which would be unreasonable to deal with. If labor were forced to use teals and inds the coalition would be able to win seats like watringah and Wentworth in 2028 along with any other teal seats they don’t win. They could also make serious gains in marginal seats especially those not in the inner city.

People shouldn’t read too much into the leaders debate result last night, it was held in the heart of Sydney where Labor always win. They should be holding these debates in marginal seats such as Parramatta where thr first one was held.

Senate will not be unreasonable – Labor will need to make a choice as to whether to become a labor – Liberal coalition or deliver fro its highly frustrated supporter by negotiating with Pocock and the Greens

It would be unreasonable towards the libs

The geographical location of a debate matters little when it’s broadcast all over the country.

I doubt rather much that someone is going to change their vote because a television station studio is in their electorate.

I think he mean s the audience who votes at the end

If ypu it on the gold coast you’d get a result that favours the libs as opposed to sydney

Ah, yes — because clearly, debates work like osmosis. If you hold one closer to a beach with more jet-skis, everyone instinctively becomes more conservative.

The location of the TV studio has no bearing on the debate. The debate is broadcast nationally. People in Toowoomba, Townsville, and Tassie all watched the same debate, with the same words, the same answers, and the same awkward silence.

If you honestly think moving a leaders’ debate 30 kilometres west would flip the whole country’s perception, you might want to take a long, hard look at how democracy actually works.

Let’s switch to the myth of the undecided voter.

Let’s talk about the tragic comedy known as the “undecided voter.”

Television networks love to pretend these people are noble sages, wrestling heroically with the great questions of our time. In reality? The so-called “undecided voter” isn’t some deep-thinking political philosopher — it’s someone who, five weeks into a campaign, three years into a government term, is still standing there like a stunned mullet wondering if they’re going to vote red, blue or not at all.

There’s no grand mystery here. They’re not “undecided.” They’re disengaged. They’re apathetic.

They’re someone who has somehow seen economic policy debates, interest rate rises, climate disasters, cost-of-living pressures, pandemic responses, wage stagnation, global wars — and still thought, “Hmmm, I just need to hear one more talking point before I form a view.”

Stacking audiences with “undecided voters” doesn’t make debates fairer. It makes them dumber. You’re essentially handing the national conversation to the people who only started paying attention when their cousin posted a meme about Dutton looking like Voldemort.

The truth is, most “undecided voters” aren’t politically neutral. They’re habitual non-participants. They’re the ones who proudly announce every few years that they don’t “follow politics” and then end up swinging elections like a drunk guy driving a golf cart through a wedding.

i think they meant the in house audience doing the actual voting is from the local area, so who gets voted winner by that audience can change.

@john must be complaining that since the debate was held at the Channel 7 studio in inner Sydney that the “undecided voters” must only have been able to be within walking distance. The “undecided” Liberal leaning voters couldn’t make it as they are waiting for petrol to drop 25c per litre

😂

For those interested in probabilistic election forecasts, I’ve recently released a First Preference election model of first preference votes per party ass well as win probabilities for each electorate: https://electionfirstpreference.com. Suggests Labor is heavily favoured given the current climate/polling. While not a prediction, it describes how likely different outcomes are, informed by historical swings and errors.

Is it possible for the Greens to win all three of Macnamara, Wills and Richmond?

Recently I’ve been going over these seats lately and each situation in these seats makes it seem like a Greens gain is possible:
– Macnamara has a narrow 3CP race between Labor and the Greens, where there’s a ~300-600 votes btw the two parties (accounting for redistribution) Josh Burns is likely to lose votes to both Liberals and Greens over Labor’s stance on the Gaza issue, possibly putting him in 3rd place in this 3CP race.
– Wills has a significant Muslim population in the north which usually votes Labor, however Labor’s stance on Gaza is angering them and several significant organisations/people in the Muslim community are encouraging people to vote for the Greens. Not to mention Peter Khalil might be a bit of a war hawk?
– Richmond has an active campaigner in Mandy Nolan whilst the primary vote for Justine Elliot has been declining this past decade. Not to mention Greens support in NSW has increased by 3.1% since 2022 according to Pollbludger.

However, I don’t think I can use current polling to justify the Greens getting 3 seats, it’s been stagnant around 12% (usually around 11-13% range depending on poll) since 2022.

I have been reading about the large number of people voting early. One thing that stood out to me was that many of them talked about wanting to avoid the noise and the crowds.

It makes me wonder – when did we start to feel crowded? Was it at about the same time as we started cocooning in our houses? And does it indicate that many of us now see other voters as the amorphous “they”, rather than as fellow citizens? And what does it mean for our politics if we no longer share a voting day?

I wonder if this choice of words around why people vote early masks some deeper attitudes?

Pollbludger reports two polls this morning that make for dismal reading for the two main parties.

Guardian Essential Research has Labor at 32%, the Coalition at 34%, the Greens at 13% and One Nation at 10%.

Demos has Labor 29%, Coalition 31%, Greens 14%, One Nation on 9%, 3% for Trumpet of Patriots and 7% for independents.

What mystifies me is that right through the campaign One Nation has had quite high and quite consistent polling numbers but they seem to have had a very low profile. If this comes to fruition then it could be quite interesting.

What these numbers do suggest is that the voting public are pretty disillusioned and life is not going to be easy for any party forming government. What they also suggest – and the final results may confirm – is that the traditional 2pp may have reached the end of the road unless we go back to a situation with a small cross bench.

LW

Definitely possible that the Greens could pick up all three though in Richmond they would need to force Labor into third place and that might be hard. Also in Richmond there is a large number of fringe dwellers on the right whose preference could go anywhere. If they do the big question is whether it will be on top of the existing four or replace some or even all of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith.

Given the comments in the Greens held seats with Labor being invisible in Brisbane and Ryan I would say that rules out Labor’s chance in both seats. The Liberals and Labor have both being invisible in Melbourne and Griffith which is no surprise give the high profile members. The Liberals have never held Melbourne and haven’t held Griffith for decades and with Liberals culture war I say that rules them out in seats like those. For Labor in Melbourne and Griffith the candidates are invisible and Labor is busy putting effort in other seats so I would image there isn’t a lot of resources going in there at all. I personally see the Greens holding all 4 seats with the possibility of winning Wills.

LW those three will be seat by seat, the national polling environment doesn’t really reflect the on the ground, targeted nature of Greens campaigning. It’s absolutely possible they win all 3, but also that they only win some, or indeed none, although I’d say that’s unlikely.

I wouldn’t say Labor is invisible here in Griffith. There are plenty of yard signs and Youtube ads, although I haven’t met Renee Coffey in person yet. The LNP candidate is certainly invisible though. I honestly think the Greens are more likely to win Macnamara than to retain some of their Brisbane seats.

Labor more or less ran dead in Griffith in 2022, imo. Why they would do that [if they did] is a mystery, there were prime time TV ads in the last week when Terri Butler was in trouble in 2016, would’ve cost a pretty penny. ETU appeared to be backing Butler during her career.
My guess, Griffith just got older and the ALP decisionmakers made the call
to tilt Green rather than risk losing it to the LNP.

Those polls @redistributed do tend to reinforce that the Libs are bleeding votes to minor right parties, not to Labor or minor left parties. The questions are:

* Does that ON vote hold up or does the lack of ground game mean a lot of the votes go back where they came from
* If they do hold up:
* do the preferences flow to the libs at a greater rate than usual.
* Could they make the final 2 in a number of seats?

I do wonder if the 2PP based on last election preference might be a bit misleading this time around.

It seems being Anti-Trump is a vote winer especially with the results in Canada as we speak when it seemed that Canadian Temu Trump who was expected to win a landslide just a few months ago has been defeated. Rowan Dean has been encouraging Dutton to embrace Trump to win the election.

not entirely they did change leader as well

I don’t think Trump will have an effect on this election. Australia isn’t Canada. The closest thing we have to a very similar and likeminded neighbour is New Zealand.

For starters Canada and Mexico border the US and Trump has been making specific remarks about Canada, Greenland and Mexico, claiming he wants to “buy” Greenland (countries and territories aren’t for sale, Denmark isn’t gonna just sell Greenland to America when it’s been part of the Kingdom of Denmark since 1721) and for Canada (which has 10 provinces and three territories and is larger than the US) to become the 51st state for whatever stupid reason he may have. He also put extra tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the only tariffs Australia has are the ones he put on every single country and territory (including uninhabited islands such as the Heard and McDonald Islands which are an Australian territory next to a volcano near Antarctica without permanent human residents, only penguins and seals plus researchers seasonally).

As for the tariffs, they don’t affect Australia much. Trump is an idiot for putting tariffs on us importing American beef because we don’t want their beef! I’ve been to the US, I’ve eaten hamburgers and hot dogs in the US, and they are so much better in Australia because we feed our cattle actual food. Australia is a net exporter and has no tariffs, America is a net importer.

Canada is right next to the US so tensions are more likely to get worse between them and Canada than between them and Australia. And Trump isn’t directly making remarks about Australia, only about Canada, China, Mexico, Palestine, Russia and Ukraine.

There is literally a party called the Trumpet of Patriots

@Real Talk and how many people will vote for them? Not many. So neither that nor the “Temu Trump” campaigning is gonna work. If Labor wins it won’t have anything to do with the US.

A senior Coalition shadow minister literally said Dutton would bring the “exact same attitude” as Trump

Anyone know when the yougov MRP is coming out? Pollbludger said on the weekend but I haven’t seen any of it yet.

@Clarinet of Communists April 29, 2025 at 6:28 pm
I think people heard that YouGov was releasing something last weekend and assumed it was going to be a YouGov MRP when in reality YouGov was going to just release the 10 rural seats polling.

Ohhhhh ok that makes sense. I was hoping it’d help with my final predictions but no such luck it seems.

Is the any new polls coming. I know Newspoll always releases a final poll on Friday night

I don’t think Trump is the major or a direct factor that people are thinking I can’t vote Dutton because of Trump, but I think it is generally damaging a populist right brand which Dutton taps into. It makes the electorate less favourable to voting for anything seen as related to it.

Secondly, I think the general market chaos and impact on super, investments and stocks probably lean people towards stability, which helps them lean to voting back in a first term government.

I don’t know which of the two above things is more influential…. Probably the later.

On top of that there are also the voters who align with Trump world views and vote for Trumpets or One Nation. It does take a chunk out of the first preferences for the Coalition.

My predictions have changed a bit so I’m gonna put them up now, these should be final unless something crazy happens.
L/NP gains: Paterson, Werriwa, Gilmore, Aston, McEwen
ALP gains: Leichhardt, Fowler, Sturt, Moore, Bullwinkel
GRN gains: Richmond, Wills, Macnamara
IND gains: Cowper, Calare, Bradfield, Wannon, Franklin, Fremantle
Seat numbers: ALP 72, GRN 7, L/NP 55, OTH 16
Result: Labor minority.
Map: https://yapms.com/app?m=56b88b23l5assf4

@ Clarinet of Communists
I would count Aston as a Liberal seat, Menzies as a Labor seat and Bulliwinkle as a Labor seat based on notional 2022 results

Ok then just lib gain Menzies. I was going off current holder but that’s fair enough.

Also Labor gain Bennelong then.

@Clarinet of Communists I concur with most of your predictions, though Aston could be a surprise come the night given the member’s had the benefit of being in parliament for two years so she could have the sophomore effect. Werriwa will be lineball given that Liberals are working hard to get the area but the issue with Gaza that’s plaguing Wills and Macnamara could be detrimental to the Liberals here. Richmond will be close but Justine Elliot could hold on given her longevity in the area, but when she leaves it’ll be pretty easy for the Greens to take it.

Fowler I doubt will go back to Labor given Dai Le is ‘one of them’ and someone who’s fairly well-liked. Franklin I reckon should be safe for Labor, Fremantle leans Labor too given it’s much bigger than Fremantle city itself. Bullwinkel leans Liberal due to the impact of the sheep export combined with outer suburban sentiments. Sturt (which is my electorate) I’m feeling confident of a flip given the changing demographics.

My predictions:

LNP Gain: Gilmore, Paterson, Bullwinkel, McEwen, Aston
ALP Gain: Brisbane, Leichhardt, Sturt
Green Gain: Wills, Macnamara
Independent Gain: Wannon, Cowper, Bradfield, Calare
Seats to watch: Deakin, Moore, Curtin, Dickson (LOL), Bonner, Fremantle, Monash (preferences will be a mess), Fowler (Will Dai Le increase her margin substantially or could Tu le run her a close race)

Final Prediction on my side:

ALP: 74
L/NP: 56
GRN: 6
CA: 1
KAP:1
IND:12

Hung Parliament but Labor easily getting leverage to govern with Independents and Greens providing Confidence and Supply. If Dutton also goes backwards this election then his position in untenable, even if Labor falls into minority, though if in any surprise scenario that he loses his seat then it won’t really matter anyway.

Sorry just to rectify the final seat count should be:

ALP: 75
GRN: 5 (as I had Richmond as a narrow retain on 3CP, but then it could surprise)

So according to my predictions I’d say Labor falls one seat short of majority.

@COC Franklin as an independent gain? Don’t think I’ve seen anyone predict that but I have no idea who the independent is or what it’s like on the ground down there so I can’t adamantly deny the possibility but I still think Labor hold and it’ll be Labor vs Liberal.

One way of looking at Fowler..
KKK was a net liability to Labor of at least 4 to 5%. This far exceeds the margin.
Mr Hayes’s succession plan now comes into effect and given now similar to 2022
Then expect alp win

My final prediction
Liberal Gain: Gilmore, Lingiari, Menzies, Aston, McEwen
Labor Gain: Sturt, Leichhardt, Brisbane, Bennelong (possibly Moore and/or Canning but unlikely, Deakin also possible)
Green Gain: Wills
Independent Gain: Wannon, Cowper

@NP The margin’s massively inflated by local party and JLN prefs, the Labor PV was only 35%. I’m less sure about it than some of the others, but I reckon it’s entirely possible Labor’s knocked out of the 2CP, given minor party voters will probably go mostly to either the ind or the libs.

@Mick for Fowler – think it will be like some of the other newly IND/GRN seats. The issues over KK will be forgotten and people will be used to having Dai Le and know that voting for her won’t be “wasted”. I expect her primary to go up taking primary from the libs and other minor parties. Whether Labor goes up remains to be seen – but I think the damage was done in 2022 and people get out of the habit of voting for them, even though they have a better candidate this time around

My Predictions:
LIB Gain: Aston, McEwen, Bullwinkel, Paterson, Gilmore, Werriwa, Lingiari
ALP Gain: Sturt, Brisbane
GRN Gain: Wills, Macnamara, Richmond
IND Gain: Cowper

Wildcards/Toss-ups: Kooyong, Ryan, Leichhardt, Curtin, Hawke, Corangamite, Wannon, Monash

My prediction…

LIB gain 5 seats from ALP
ALP gain 2 seats from LIB, 1 seat from GRN and 1 seat from IND (Fowler)
IND gain 1 seat
GRN gain 2 seats from ALP

I think that would equate to:
– 75 ALP
– 58 LNP
– 5 GRN
– 12 IND

When does the Newspoll state by state poll come out?