2025 federal election guide now live

Update: I forgot to add Lyons as a Liberal gain.

For the first time in 4 years Trimmed Mean inflaiton is back to the RBA target. Australia was able to bring inflation under control without going into recession. Real Wages are rising again. Per Capita GDP is growing again. IMHO if there were at least two interest rate cuts then Albo would be much better placed to win a small majority and seats like Werriwa would be held and Labor would have a better chance to pick up Banks or Bonner.
Albo biggest mistake was to hold the Voice referendum wihout securing bipartisan support something which gave Dutton a lifeline as OL at a time he was struggling to make inroads. It also provided ammuniation for the right to say Albo cares more about {*Insert Woke issue} than bread and butter issue. The next goal post for whoever wins on Saturday is to bring real wages, GDP per capita back to prepandemic levels.

* Disclaimer- i am not saying the Voice is woke nor do i have a definition of what Woke is but it is a word that someone like Dutton is good at using whatver it means.

I’d love to post my prediction for this election, but I’m waiting for the final polls to come out on Friday before I finalise it. So far I think Labor will coalesce around 73 seats, but depending on how the next few polls go it might go up or down.

My prediction is
Liberal Gain: Gilmore, Lingiari, Aston, McEwen, Paterson, Bullwinkel, Ryan, Lyons, Bennelong, Tangey, Werriwa.
Labor Gain: Sturt, Brisbane
Green Gain: Macnamara, Richmond
Independent Gain: Cowper

tossups: Blair, Hunter, Robertson, Parramatta, Calare, Whitlam(leaning labor), Bean, Bendigo, Hawke, Corangamite, Franklin (lean labor), Solomon, Curtin, Kooyong, Goldstein, Moore, Fremantle, Wannon, Bradfield.

id like to believe the libs can win Indi but im not gonna go there. below predictions are on

So
LIB: 62
LAB: 54
GRN: 4
IND: 11
TOSSUP: 19

but on a push
LIB: 67
LAB: 63
GRN: 4
IND: 16

I am leaning to something like

ALP 76
LNP 55
Other 19

not going to predict seats as due to redistribution there will be some flips between LNP and Labor. Think that LNP will get a few flips from Labor – but these will be offset by losses to Labor and the crossbench. Similarly Labor to get a few seats from LNP but also lose some to the crossbench.
also think the IND/GRN may lose 1 or 2 seats but similarly gain others

@redistributed, I’m interested in the next state breakdown too.

Resolve’s state breakdown this week – and Resolve had usually favoured the Coalition more than other pollsters – had the Liberal primary vote down to 33% in Victoria. That’s the same as the 2022 result, after successive federal Resolve polls had the Liberal primary vote up around 38-39% (a 5-6% swing compared to 2022) in Victoria, until the previous one was down to 35% before now plummeting further.

(It also had a -31 satisfaction rating for Dutton in Victoria!)

It is only one poll, but does continue a trend across most polls where the Liberal primary vote in Victoria had been dropping from the high 30s, to mid 30s, and now 33% (same as 2022 election) in this one.

So I’m definitely interested to see if other pollsters like Newspoll’s state breakdown shows a similar result.

@ Trent
Freshwater seems to be the one that is most Pro-Coalition while Roy Mogran is more Pro- Labor. I trust newspoll the most i am hoping there will be more polll. William Bowe on Pollbludger does a weighted result

The Nationals will hold Cowper I reckon despite the margin.

Yeah I’ve mostly been using PB’s weighted results by state as a guide. That currently has the Liberal primary vote around 35% (+2 from 2022) and Labor around 31.5% (-1.5) in Victoria, which if that turns out to be accurate would really limit the Coalition’s seat pickups in Victoria. Depending of course on where the swings occur, but I doubt it will be in the lower margin seats like Chisholm and more likely in the higher margin seats like Hawke & Holt which probably won’t swing enough to flip now that Coalition’s polling has deteriorated so much.

Newspoll is the one I trust the most too, Morgan has been too Labor leaning for ages, Freshwater definitely more Coalition, and Resolve had been much worse for Labor (especially in Victoria) than most other polls too but not as Coalition-friendly as Freshwater.

So it’d be great to have final week Resolve + Newspoll state breakdowns to get a better idea of where seats might be more likely to flip or hold.

@Nimalan usually woke is defined as things that are radically left-wing, but I understand why this confuses some people and usually it helps to give examples.

I know Sky News labels lots of things woke, so if anyone wants a more centre to centre-right perspective of what I define as woke I’m more than happy to answer any questions.

Re Fowler
The boundary between Fowler and Blaxland was woodville Rd Villawood
The difference around there was the alp
Vote in Blaxland was 10% better.
Just this small area gives an indication of
How much KK Suppressed the alp vote

@ Nether Portal
i respect your views i dont have a defintiion myself. I have heard example like critical race theory, unconscious bias training, DEI, Pronouns, Welcome to Country, 3 flags, Adam Bandt refusing to stand in front of the Australian flag, Republic, Palestine, Trans rights as very examples citied in the media.

@ Trent
I think the swing in SE Melbourne will be much less than Hawke/Gorton there are more localised grievances such as Melton Rail electrification, Western Highway. While the SE melbourne like Pakenham/Cranbourne lines already have electric double track rail with all level crossings removed by next year. Clyde rail maybe an issue going forward.

its just like saying sohie mirabella surpressed the lib vote in Indi. but in 2019 despite cathy mcgowan retiring Helen Haines still won against a decent liberal candidate. people have enjoyed this new Mp after being taken for granted by labor. also Dai Le will enjoy preferences from the Mulsim voting groups. hard to see Dai Le being turfed out

Dont forget people wrote off the libs in 2019 2010 and they managed to do better then expexted

Ah yes, the classic “Don’t forget 2019!” time-loop logic—because if the Coalition once outperformed expectations, they will always outperform expectations, forever, no matter the candidates, policies, or polling.

The similarities between 2019 and 2025 begin and end with an opposition leader so underwhelming, he’s done more for the government’s re-election than half the cabinet combined.

Also: “then expexted”? Spellcheck is free.

It is like a football game where one side is down by 30 at half time. The commentators have to talk up the losing sides chances to keep the audience watching

I rememeber back in the day about 10 years ago adelaide were down by 60 points at 3 qtr time vs nth. We qon the game by 3 points

Werent carlton up by 41 points at half time against richmond earlier this year. And lost?

I think this election will be near status quo. Labor will retain its majority in the House with some “seat swapping” e.g. Wannon to Dyson, McEwen to Libs, Sturt to Lab, Paterson to Libs, Macnamara to Greens, Cowper to Heise, Deakin to Lab.

The Libs are not going backwards in Victoria, I literally have no idea why people are saying Deakin to lab other than a hatred of the MP there.

AFL is the only sport where you get rewarded for missing — which makes it the perfect analogy for the Coalition’s campaign. Unlike the Adelaide Crows, who get a week to prep for each opponent, Peter Dutton had three years and the political equivalent of bye rounds, and still delivered a campaign so underdone it would be sent back to the kitchen with a health warning.

Opinion polls suggest result between that of 2022 and a slight improvement for Labor. It appears the lnp have an excellent chance of losing an extra 3 seats to independents.
I would guess it is borderline between a minority and majority alp government.
Alp 74 to day 80

My best/worst case predictions
ALP 70 – 80
Lib/LNP/Nat – 50 – 60
GRN – 3 – 6
Others 15 – 20

I get the impression that the Federal ALP campaign has ‘managed’ the Allan Government over the last few weeks. They have done nothing and announced nothing. After Saturday, there will be a deluge of disaster coming out of Spring Street – where is the Victorian Transmission Plan and liable to upset people – due on March 31 – and as yet nowhere to be seen but has to be finalised by July 31. Nothing about urban planning. No bad news hospitals, roads, police numbers ….It has been managed well – after all Jacinta Allan and her cronies can’t all of a sudden become competent can they?

New MRP out, very good for Labor and inds.

Enjoying reading everyone’s predictions for Saturday. It’s looking to be a fascinating election night with all 4 of the major factions playing attack and defence in different parts of the country, plus a number of 3 and 4-cornered contests.

I’m not feeling confident enough to make my own seat predictions yet, but I thought it might be interesting to look at which seats are most likely to flip according to current Sportsbet odds:

1. Aston ALP $3.50 / LIB $1.25
2. Brisbane GRN $2.75 / ALP $2.00
Ryan GRN $2.75 / LIB $2.10
4. Gilmore ALP $2.25 / LIB $1.70
5. Cowper NAT $1.93 / IND $1.75
6. Kooyong IND $1.90 / LIB $1.80
7. Bradfield LIB $1.83 / IND $1.83
Moore LIB $1.83
9. Macnamara ALP $1.80
Paterson ALP $1.80
11. Curtin IND $1.75
McEwen ALP $1.75
Wannon LIB $1.75
14. Calare NAT $1.73
15. Lyons ALP $1.72
16. Bennelong ALP $1.70
17. Bullwinkel ALP $1.66
Chisholm ALP $1.66
19. Goldstein IND $1.63
Griffith GRN $1.63
21. Sturt LIB $1.61
22. Wills ALP $1.60
23. Lingiari ALP $1.57
24. Monash LIB $1.52
25. Deakin LIB $1.50
Leichhardt LIB $1.50
27. Fowler IND $1.40
Richmond ALP $1.40
29. Bass LIB $1.38
Canning LIB $1.38
Dickson LIB $1.38
32. McPherson LIB $1.33
33. Forrest LIB $1.31
34. Boothby ALP $1.30
Robertson ALP $1.30
36. Werriwa ALP $1.27
37. Banks LIB $1.25
Longman LIB $1.25
Mackellar IND $1.25
Solomon ALP $1.25
Tangney ALP $1.25
42. Flinders LIB $1.24
43. McMahon ALP $1.22
Menzies LIB $1.22
45. Blair ALP $1.20
Hawke ALP $1.20
47. Braddon LIB $1.17
Dunkley ALP $1.17
Wentworth IND $1.17
50. Blaxland ALP $1.15
Bonner LIB $1.15
Hunter ALP $1.15
53. Casey LIB $1.14
54. Fremantle ALP $1.12
Groom LIB $1.12
Holt ALP $1.12
Macquarie ALP $1.12
Pearce ALP $1.12
59. CorangamiteALP $1.11
Indi IND $1.11

@ Angas
The bookies are almost right.
Maybe overstate liberal position by up to
Four seats.

My predictions, for what they are worth:

An outstandingly very good night for Labor would see them retain all current seats, while picking up Brisbane, Fowler, Moore, Griffith, Bass, Sturt, Canning, Leichhardt and Dickson. Elsewhere, the independents would pick up Cowper, Bradfield, Wannon and Monash while keeping Calare. That would see the ALP on 87, the Coalition on 44, the Indies on 17 (including Katter and Sharkie) and the Greens on 2. I don’t need to tell you that this would be a hyper-unrealisitic scenario.

On the other hand, the Coalition’s absolute best possible outcome would see them retain all their current seats, plus these seats falling: Aston, Lyons, Kooyong, Calare, Curtin, Goldstein, McEwen, Ryan, Bennelong, Gilmore, Bullwinkel, Chisholm, Brisbane, Mackellar and Lingiari. It would suit the Coalition for Macnamara, Richmond and Wills to leave the ALP camp for the Greens. When we shake down the numbers, it’s beautiful chaos: Coalition 69, ALP 67, Greens 5, Independents 9. Only a few blueblood diehards would consider this even remotely possible, but the Four Corners special on the formation of the next government would be dynamite.

What do I think? The result will land somewhere in the middle of these two partisan outcomes listed above.

ALP 77 Coalition 56 Greens 4 Independents 13

Other predictions, specific to this website:
* Someone will declare victory for the Coalition between 8pm and 10pm based on early results in a random safe seat
* Someone else will declare a landslide victory for Labor between 8pm and 10pm based on the same rationale
* A seat that absolutely nobody has on their bingo card will flip
* Dutton’s political obituary will be written, rewritten and revised several times during the evening
* Someone will hyperlink a previous conversation thread comment at least six months old to win a minor debating point
* Ben will be referred to as the ‘next Antony Green’ at least once
* Someone will demand ‘what about the Senate results’ before 10pm

Seat predictions time. A mug’s game and I am ready for embarrassment.

Coalition wins Aston, Calare, McEwen, Menzies, Bullwinkel, Tangey, Mackellar and Lingiari.

Labor wins Sturt, Bonner, Leichardt, Brisbane, Griffith.

Greens wins Wills, Richmond (feels like I predict this every election, but it has to happen eventually right)

Independent wins: Fairfax or Fisher (not sure which one), Cowper, Wannon.

Now for the caveats. I’ve probably over estimated the preference flows from the minor right etc and got some of the state factors a little wrong while reading the tea leaves.

Then on the opposite if the LNP get a higher primary in outer suburbs and blue collar seats than I expect and the preference flows are strong, then maybe Werriwa, Blair, Greenway and a couple of Melbourne seats come into it. I doubt it though. I think even if swings are strong it’s going to be on safe Labor seats and not enough to tip them over.

So based on my actual seat prediction and if my math is right I get it as:
Labor 75
Coalition 58
Greens 4
Independents 12
Katter 1

Posted and realised I forgot Paterson and Robertson. I find it interesting Robertson has had little attention. If Coalition blue collar strategy works both should fall. I think line ball and let’s just keep them in the Labor camp.

@ LNP Insider, we cant say both Aston and Menzies are Lib gains. I would say Aston is notionally Liberal based on 2022 results while Menzies is a notionally. Calare is a Coalition seat based on 2022 results so on your prediction i would only put Menzies as a Liberal gain while Aston and Calare would be retains.

I am a bit nervous this time to make a prediction. However, i think Labor will get between 70-76 seats. i think Coalition maybe 60-65. A few other points
1. Libs have a greater chance in Hawke than Chisholm
2. A possible Liberal pick up in Werriwa/Whitlam
3. McEwen is probaably best pick up after notionally Menzies in Victoria
4. i think Kooyong and Goldstein are better prospects than Mackellar for the Libs
5. I have no idea about Lingiari and reluctant to make any prediction.

Also i think Roberston is generally becoming better for the Labor party and more progressive it is increasingly attractive to white collar remote workers so i would put it in a different category to Paterson/Lyons.

Starting off on notional margins (Lib Bennelong, ALP Menzies, ALP Aston):

Coalition gain: Aston, Menzies
Labor gain: Sturt, Bennelong, Moore
Greens gain: Richmond
Others gain: Bradfield, Cowper, Wannon, Calare

Total:

ALP 78
Coalition 52
Greens 5
Others 15

On the whole, a lot of very close contests but I have leaned towards the incumbent for races that I thought were close to 50-50. This includes Bennelong and Gilmore. I think that Victoria is genuinely swinging a couple of points less to ALP than the rest of the nation so I would normally consider Menzies and Deakin as potential ALP pickups but in this case I lean towards them being Coalition. Sturt is a notable exception here because I think the results in this area have been far too good in recent years for the Labor party to not be the prohibitive favourite. Meanwhile Moore is I think a good prospect for an upset Labor win because WA seems to be swinging towards Labor from 2022 and Moore consistently swings in line with the state, plus there is a potential preference split with the former Liberal member’s ticket. Labor also preselected a strong candidate in 2022 and have kept him for this election.

I have been looking for seats for the Coalition to pick up, and earlier in the campaign I thought they would have Lingiari, Paterson, Bennelong and potentially Gilmore, but they have unravelled awfully. What’s particularly striking to me is their primary vote decline. I think this therefore bodes especially poorly for them when contesting independents, because Coalition defectors to minor right wing parties might still preference against Labor but that is far less so when it comes to non-classic contests, if perhaps even favouring the challenger.

Likewise, votes for Greens and others seems to have picked up over the course of the campaign. Therefore I think they will hold on to their 2022 gains. It’s hard to guess the individual seats where they should do well. However, I think Richmond is a seat where the Greens are generally increasing while Labor is declining, and the same candidates from 2022 for all of Greens, Labor and Nationals are in the mix so it doesn’t feel that there should be a dramatic change. With just the continued gains of the Greens at the expense of Labor, that seems like a good prospect for a pickup.

In Melbourne, I thought Wills should be a good prospect because of Palestine but considering the Greens margin from the areas redistributed from Melbourne is slightly inflated, I’m not sure they are actually getting the swing they require. It may be a close call but I’m tilting Labor. I also think Josh Burns should retain Macnamara relatively handily although that may end up a mug call.

I’m honestly not seeing the path to 60 seats for the Coalition when their vote is this low, because not only are they likely losing seats to Labor but also to independent challengers.