2025 federal election guide now live

I’m gonna say this is gonna be similar or a reverse of 2010. Where the Libs made ground in all states but vic and Labor made ground in Vic. Expectthe opposite. Labor may pick-up some seats but libs will make gains against the grain in Vic. Labor minority govt

I respectfully disagree. Labor may be about to do something not achieved in over 50 years – improve their standing in the parliament at their first re-election. Something not achieved by Hawke, Howard, Gillard or Turnbull. Mind you, none of them were running against Spud the dud. If Labor wins a majority, they should send a thank you card to Dutton.

I can see a scenario where the Libs gain ground in VIC but it doesn’t translate into many seats due to an inefficient swing wasted in Labor’s heartland. The fact that the Libs can’t confidently claim Chisholm at this stage and spend more effort targetting seats further up on the pendulum says a lot on their prospects. Then Labor will pick up seats in SA and maintain their ground in WA which results in Labor again winning a narrow majority like in 2022.

We all know it’s in part because Labor have run the biggest disinformation campaign and lies and scare campaign in modern history.

possible alp wins (8)

sturt Leichhardt Brisbane Griffith Moore
Bennelong(notional) Deakin Fowler

possible independent/ Teal ( 5)
Wannon Cowper Calare Monash Bradfield

these sums don’t count alp losses

I’m willing to concede sturt and Brisbane to Labor and Cowper to the ind.

“The biggest disinformation campaign and lies and scare campaign”…. until the next one, right John?

AEF is now forcasting Labor will be in majority. However, i personally still feel it is Labor minority between 70-75 seats. I think Labor will be willing to concede Menzies as a notional loss. I am counting Aston as a Liberal seat as i use General election not by-election.
Other potential losses for Labor in order of liklihood
1. Paterson
2. Gilmore
3. Lyons
4. McEwan
I am hoping for another Redbridge/Essential and Freshwater this week as i have only seen Newspoll, Roy Morgan and You gov this weel

Apparently Yougov’s releasing another MRP on the weekend, while they’re not great for individual seats, it should give a good idea how much the outer burbs will swing, which should give an idea of whether the limit of lib gains will be seats like McEwen and Paterson or Corangamite and Blair.

John I’m intrigued to know, what specifically do you think is disinformation and lies? I’m guessing the nuclear costing and public service cuts are included?

My prediction. https://jmp.sh/CLYEC2hT

Lingiari should be Liberal so the numbers are actually Liberal 49, Labor 73.

“Labor may be about to do something not achieved in over 50 years”

Actually I don’t think there is a single case of this happening ever in federal politics. No first-term government has ever gained ground. The only examples of governments gaining ground were at subsequent elections – 1993, 2001, 2004, 2019.

Of course it has happened at a state level quite a few times recently. Victoria 2002, Queensland 2001, NSW 1999 and of course WA 2021 come to mind.

“Labor may be about to do something not achieved in over 50 years – improve their standing in the parliament at their first re-election.”

Maybe what Real Talk meant was beating the change of government seat count. The LNP government seat count grew in 2001 and 2004 but not to 1996 landslide numbers and grew in 2019 but not to 2013 numbers.

Darcy giving Griffith to Labor but not Brisbane is a bit odd, reasoning?

Votes or seats, it hasn’t happened.

2001, 2004 and 2019 were not first re-elections.

Thanks Ben, that’s exactly what I meant. I was referring only to first re-elections.

Wasn’t sure how Fraser went in 1977, which is why I left it off the list. Turns out he went backwards. Same with Whitlam in 1974. Menzies lost 5 seats in 1951.

Maybe, as an absolute technicality, we can say Curtin’s government in 1943 is the last one to increase their seat count at their first re-election – yet they weren’t in office as the result of winning an election. One to debate.

If the ALP wins 77 seats, they will be the first government in at least 82 years (or ever) to improve their standing at their first re-election.

Dutton could yet create his own slice of history. Not since 1914 has any newly-elected opposition leader following their party’s defeat has ever led their party back to government. If Dutton wins this election or somehow hangs on and wins in 2028, he’ll go into the history books.

2022 – Dutton (?)
2013 – Shorten (lost two elections)
2007 – Nelson (lost challenge to Turnbull)
1996 – Beazley (lost two elections)
1983 – Peacock (lost an election, then his leadership, then lost another election)
1975 – Whitlam (lost the next election)
1972 – Snedden (lost the next election)
1949 – Chifley (lost the next election)
1941* – Fadden (lost the next election)
1932 – Scullin (lost the next election)
1929 – Latham (not THAT Latham; made way for Lyons)
1916* – Tudor (lost the next two elections)
1914 – Cook (made way for Hughes when the ALP split)
1913 – Fisher (WON the next election in 1914)

* Change of government in parliament, not via the ballot box.

Yeah I wouldn’t count 1943. If you don’t count it, it’s pretty much never happened.

@Clarinet, I think GRN primaries will increase across the board, more than ALP. But in Griffith it’s about 2 points (I think) for ALP to get ahead of Lib and thus likely win against the Greens.

Brisbane it’s much closer, no? And if Green primary increases more than Labor they will stay in front surely?

If Peter Dutton loses this election he SHOULD resign. If Labor has an increased majority he NEEDS to resign. Losing seats to a party that has been so unpopular and so bad in government isn’t acceptable.

While I disagree with your reasoning NP, I agree with your essential point: Dutton’s position will be entirely untenable if the Coalition loses ground.

It’s virtually untenable now. The bloke gives the impression of someone who hasn’t done his homework yet turns up expecting to pass with the rest of his group assignment.

Some of the greater minds on this forum were saying waiting for May would be political suicide for Labor; instead it looks like a remarkably prudent decision, with a potential increase in the number of seats.

Beazley, Abbott and Shorten gained ground at their first election as opposition leader and were given a second turn. You have to go back to Andrew Peacock to see an opposition leader who gained ground yet wasn’t given a second go. Or even a third go, if you factor in 1990. Interestingly, all three of these leaders won the 2PP in the federal at least once during their career (Peacock 1990, Beazley 1998, Abbott when he won in 2013)

Howard went backwards in 1987 and the knives were out for him from election night onwards. Similar story for John Hewson, he never got another turn after losing the unlosable election. Both leaders were dead men walking. The same will happen to Dutton if he sticks around after failing to make ground in this election. The new Liberal leadership rules may protect him to some degree.

The problem is for the Coalition – who next? Sitting as a dispassionate neutral, there’s nobody on the next rung of the ladder who shifts my needle.

Those who think that this Election is a forgone Labor win, would be best advised to think again.

I have worked on Elections for nearly 30 years and the most important thing that you look for is resources, both financial and man power.

In this one, from what I have seen, the Coalition seems to be doing a lot better that a lot of people think and many Liberals who come to help from Parramatta and Bennelong as well.

Last Tuesday, I was at the Gordon Scout Hall, which is a pre-poll booth and what I have seen is that the Liberal Party is back.

Sure the Liberal campaign has been patchy, but dont forget this – there are some 30% of the electrate that are voting for a minor party or independent and that should say something to us that this contest is NOT over.

@Real Talk – excellent analogy. Dutton has had a shocker of a campaign in the past few months, often flip-flopping on policies and promises which has taken a toll on the opinion polling, yet doesn’t seem to change whatsoever. And I agree with you as well on how it’s slim pickings for the next leader.

@NP – agree with your point. Dutton’s position is clearly untenable and unsustainable, the Liberals need a new leader after the election. There is some chance he may be out of a job come May 3.

Here’s an interesting hypothetical. Ater the election, Dutton is no longer leader, and his future seems gone. Therefore, he resigns. Who wins the by election?

@Darcy – with the combination of the loss of Dutton’s personal vote and Labor likely being in a honeymoon period, Labor gain unless they screw up the campaign really badly.

I think there a couple of scenarios if Dutton does not form government
1. Labor and Coalition will almost an Equal number of seats but Teals + Coalition are majority this means the Coalition notionally won a majority of seats like they did in 2010. In these circumstances Dutton will argue Albanese was an ilegimate PM and was installed by the Teals. In these circumstances i think Dutton will remain leader
2. Albanese wins majority even if it just 76 seats. While this is still a loss of 1 from last election. Labor will argue that there is one less set this time as Higgins was abolished. There maybe a swap of seats for example McEwan for Sturt, Paterson for Leichardt etc. I think Dutton is gone in those circumstances and the recriminations will start Sunday.
3. Albanese falls just short say 72-73 seats. Labor still wins a notional majority as the Greens held seats, Clark and Fowler will still be notionally Labor. The Coalition will concede early maybe early Sunday morning. This is the grey area whether Dutton should stay on or not? Dutton may argue that he does not need to do anything and Greens wiill drag Labor to the left and he can win 2028 by default. However, Albanese will have a stronger hand than Gillard did in 2010 as there is a much bigger corss bench

I dread a repeat of 2019 happening again this year so I’m not counting my chickens before they hatch.

-If the LNP end up with less than the 55 they won last time then Dutton has to go.
– If Labor ends up with a bigger majority – even with sests won from the Greens he has to go as the LNP will have gone nowhere
– If the LNP gained seats but were close to Labor in a minority situation he could stay.
– If he won most seats and couldn’t form a government he could stay.
– If the LNP won a majority of course he would stay.

What would be interesting if a group of Teals could give the LNP a majority on the floor but insisted he go.
As of Sunday 27 April he is – in his darker moments – packing the LOTO office – and not be going to the PM suite.

Who has the keys to the box that Matt Canavan and Barnaby Joyce have been locked in? If they open their mouths just once this week it is completely all over red rover.

@Real Talk while I agree with your point I think I should’ve stated my reasoning better. Due to the current economic situation the fact that Labor could still win without doing enough for the economy means that the electorate doesn’t not like the Coalition, they don’t like Dutton. Part of this economic situation can be attributed to Labor’s policies and the cost of the failed Voice referendum, but part can also be attributed to global factors.

@James I think the campaign’s been poor from both sides to be honest, or really I should say both leaders as individual MPs and candidates on both sides have had good campaigns. Reminds me a bit of 2010 when both leaders were unpopular, as both leaders are unpopular now too. In both 2010 and 2025 we have a progressive Labor leader (Albanese and Gillard are both from the Labor Left faction) as well as a socially/nationalistically conservative Coalition leader (Abbott and Dutton are both quite conservative and are factional allies of each other, as evident by the leadership chaos in 2015 and 2018).

@Nimalan I’m thinking something like one of your three scenarios will happen. I don’t trust the exit poll that says Labor will get 81 seats, Albo’s too unpopular for that to happen.

That being said, the Coalition needs to address why they aren’t winning more seats on the federal level. Four of the eight jurisdictions (six states and two territories) in Australia had state or territory elections in 2024. Three of these were won by the Coalition, with the Liberals holding on to Tassie in March while the CLP picked up the NT in August, then the LNP won in Queensland in October. The only one Labor won was the ACT election in October and even then they lost some seats to the Liberals and Independents for Canberra, as did the Greens who once again formed a coalition government with Labor.

@Redistributed I completely agree, that’s exactly what I was trying to say. If he wins 58 or less seats then he has to go. In 2022 the Coalition won 58 seats, though they now only have 53 thanks to defections and the Aston by-election.

Going further back up, @John, if there’s one positive for the Coalition this time around it’s that I think they will hold onto Cowper with an increased margin. Pat Conaghan signs have far outnumbered Caz Heise signs in Port Macquarie.

One thing I should note is that any regional independents caught helping Labor form government will likely lose their seats in 2028. So in reality Calare, Cowper, Wannon and even Indi could fall back to Coalition candidates after just three years of being independent-held. But those are the only regional independents with any chance of winning. For example Jeremy Miller won’t pick up Lyne and Russell Broadbent will lose Monash.

There is so little enthusiasm for either side that actually winning government will be a poisoned chalice. If Labor win a majority they will have nowhere to hide and no one to blame. The Teals will also have to step up in some way. If the Greens win seats they will be emboldened and make merry by attacking from the left. Frankly I am pessimistic and think the next three years could be ugly on all sorts of fronts. I don’t think history will look favourably on the period from 2007.

Going off the YouGov poll of 1,500 people conducted from 17–22 April 2025 (the most recent opinion poll), Labor apparently has 53.5% of the federal TPP, a swing of +1.4% to Labor.

In each state apparently it’s:
* NSW: 57.0% (+5.6%)
* Victoria: 52.0% (–2.8%)
* Queensland: 46.0% (+0.1%)
* WA: 58.0% (+3.0%)
* SA: 60.0% (+6.0%)

I say apparently because it’s extremely hard to believe that Labor would get 57% of the TPP in NSW or 58% of it in WA. But even if this poll is inaccurate, if it is, then here is the swing to Labor from the last state/territory elections in each state:

* NSW: +2.7%
* Victoria: –3.0%
* Queensland: –0.2%
* WA: +0.9%
* SA: +5.4%

Do we really think Labor’s gonna outperform their result at the WA state election in WA? I don’t think so.

“Due to the current economic situation the fact that Labor could still win”

Nether Portal,
IMHO, the current economic situation is the reason Labor will win.
Dutton has made the mistake of highlighting the ‘current economic situation’. He had been running advertisements on the radio asking “are you better off than three years ago?”. These adverts also mention inflation.
For a majority of Australians, the answer is “yes, I am better off than three years ago”.
Unemployment is the lowest it has been for 50 years.
Inflation rate is less than half of what it was 3 years ago.
Wage growth is now higher than the inflation, therefore people are seeing real growth in wages.
Interest rates are falling.
They have had 3 years to come up with some positive policies that benefit a majority of voters. Instead, all they have is nostalgia for the past when times were tough.

NP, thank you for the clarification. I appreciate the effort you went in to clear up your reasoning.

I’m curious as to why you think the Teals “need to step up in some way” in the event of a Labor majority.

In my analogy above I forgot to reference a certain opposition leader who failed in 2004. I wonder if history will look back on Dutton as the Liberal Latham.

I think there is a possible chance that the final count could be something like
ALP 75
Lib/LNP/Nat – 50
Crossbench 25

With ALP picking up Lib seats but losing others to the cross-bench. While Lib/LNP/Nat have a few pickups from ALP but lose out both ALP and the cross-bench in other

In this fan fiction scenario, a large number of cross benchers form a new progressive party that also runs in the senate in 2028

@watson watch

I said this awhile back on the site that when it comes to Albo/federal Labor (and Kos Samaras or some other pollster I believe echoed similar sentiments) that it’s not so much white hot anger and baseball bats towards Labor than it is just disappointment. Disappointment that in their view, the times require more, but the Labor government has been seen as more incremental, or in other words, stability in a steady as you go way.

In 2024 post the Voice defeat, I think that was becoming more evident with polling drift, but it wasn’t the sharp drop that a “we hate Albo/Labor” would look like – Victorian Labor in the last 6-9 months has been looking more like that by comparison (and I think they’re looking to head to defeat come next year unless something drastic happens). But come the election, I think when people actually were starting to actually consider the two main options (and with turbulent economic times in the form of Trump’s trade war and tariffs in the background), more are choosing to flock towards the status quo, even if they aren’t huge fans.

NP mentions this election being similar to 2010. I can see that, but I think I also see similarities to 2019; specifically Dutton compared to his former Today sparring partner, Bill Shorten – seen in a poor light and not fit to be PM other than by loyal party supporters. 2019 also was static for the government back then in terms of net seat numbers – it could end up that way too for Labor this time round, where they lose some, but also gain others and keep their majority or just fall short.

Every non Labor seat with a decent Greens vote is a potential Teal gain, but probably only once. I think the history of preferential votintg goes back to FPTP contests won by a candidate getting 18 or 19%?
Yet that’s going to happen at this election, imo.
The Climate 200 candidate in Dickson would beat Dutton with 19%, provided she got the vast majority of Labor Green preferences, which wouldn’t be a surprise.

2010 is quite a good analogy – no enthusiasm for either candidate. The big difference with 2010 is that the campaign started with Labor well in front and it was only with last opinion poll that the previouly unthinkable hung parliament was a possibility. This time it has been pretty even from the beginning but Labor gaining ground during the campaign. In 2010, i recall making up my mind in the booth – to this day i can’t remember who I voted for – this time I probably know but it has been about ruling out rather than wanting to vote for someone. I don’t think I am alone.

Watson Watch, the only place that things are getting better are for Government workers and Government adjacent workers – everyone else is still going backwards, but most importantly going backwards more slowly, so it does seem to be somewhat of an improvement. We are clearly in a recession except for the one thing that usually accompanies recession – unemployment. I don’t know why but I reckon books will be written in the future about it.

The one thing I will say is that it probably has been more of a benefit than a hinderance for Labor, like almost everything I think the Libs have got either their messaging or the policy specifics wrong.

Wouldn’t a better analogy 2001 and 2004 (if the current polls are correct) where the oppoistion intially was competitive (and even leading) in the polls but on the last minute, they lost at the end of the day due to a mix of global factors , incidents or poor taste from the Opposition leader (for 2001, it was 9/11 and Tampa Affair and for 2004, it was Mark Latham’s handshake)?

@ Nether Portal
My gut instinct is as of today Scenario 3 is the most likely one. I would use 58 as the minimum for Dutton i would still count Aston and Monash as Liberal seats. So if Liberals win Aston i would say Lib retain rather than Lib gain so nothing to celebrate. I would count Menzies (my seat) as a notional Labor seat eventhough it has a sitting Liberal member so if Keith Wolahan is relected then it is a Liberal Gain. If Dutton wins 62 Coalition seats then that is the grey area as it is no where near enough to negoitate a minority government but he has still made a net gain from 2022. There is no doubt that Labor has made this election a referendum on Dutton and is using his image everywhere a bit like the Libs did to Shorten in 2019.

I think at the moment, despite what the opinion polls say, picking an overall winner here is not that easy. We could still see notional 52-48 to Labor, but the libs make ground as all of Labors increase is wasted in Labor/Greens seats or increasing Labors margin in seats won narrowly last time. Conversely, the Libs could end up 52-48 and it is status quo or even a bit backwards because they are simply reducing margins in very safe Labor seats. We also don’t know what the preferences will do. If the polls are right and a lot of the movement from the Libs is to ON/TOP then does that change how the preferences flow? And does Gaza also change how preferences flow?
I also saw on Insiders this morning that Lib insiders are telling journo’s they don’t know what is happening with the published polls because they are not tracking with their internal polls. Not sure if that is right, but considering their campaign so far it would not surprise to find it completely wrong.

Voted yesterday, took an hour to get to the front at Midday, Labor/Green volunteers not their usual chirpy selves.
Saw similar in 2019, betting agencies had Labor at $1.05, L/NP at $5.50 the win, they paid out early. If the campaign had lasted another week, Morrison woulda won a swag of seats in NSW, imo.

I’m personally sceptical of the current polling as the news on the ground in Western Melbourne and Sydney would have me very nervous if I was Labor plus a bunch of seats in outer Perth and Brisbane are not looking good either.

Hearing stories about a huge Liberal presence in pre-polling booths in areas like Whitlam, Corangamite, Parramatta and Reid is make me question the chances of a Labor victory.

However haven’t pre-polls traditionally favoured the Liberals as shown in the 2022 election, QLD election and WA election (in seats like Pilbara and South Perth)

And the Liberals traditionally do a very good postals campaign in Liberal and marginal seats.

For what it is worth, I have not been robocalled or surveyed once during this election campaign and I have had only two campaign SMS messages – one from Labor and one from the Tromboners. Last time I was getting robocalled and surveyed 5 – 6 times a week with different calls and surveys depending whether I was at work or at home. Have other people had similar experiences?

I’ve d9ne just the one comms poll and a text from trumpets