2025 federal election guide now live

Nice to see john making his predictions, coincidentally I was going to post mine’s today. There’s been a huge influx of news and polling coming out since the election was called. I didn’t post my prediction at the start of the campaign, but my March prediction would basically be that.

Labor’s polling recovery has continued and the Coalition has slipped up in policies and candidates (e.g., Whitlam, Bennelong, Leichhardt, Wills, Bruce) However, there’s still 2 weeks left in the election and anything could happen which may reverse Labor’s optimism.

This prediction will be an improvement for Labor, but definitely not as extreme as YouGov’s “Labor one short of majority” MRP.

April 17th Mid-Election Prediction:
Seat Count:
ALP: 70 (-8)
LNP: 65 (+11)
GRN: 4
KAT: 1
CA: 1
WSC: 1 (+1); Dai Le retains Fowler
IND: 8 (-5)

Specifics:
– LNP gain Gilmore, Patterson, Bennelong, McEwen, Aston and Lingiari from ALP
– LNP gain Bullwinkel (from nominal ALP hold)
– LNP gain Calare, Moore and Monash from IND
– LIB gain Ryan from GRN
– ALP gain Brisbane from GRN
– GRN gain Wills and Macnamara from ALP

Result: Labor Minority Government (most likely with Independents)

Changes since March 2025:
– Robertson, Chisholm, Lyons and an Eastern Melbourne seat (Dunkley OR Bruce) from LIB gain to ALP retain
– Macnamara from ALP retain to GRN gain
– Result changed from Toss up to Labor Minority Government

I do have explanations written up on why I made those changes + seats whose status I’m reconsidering, so if anyone’s curious I can post them here.

Yes please do.

I’ll wait until shortly before the election before making a full prediction, but on the current numbers I can’t see Labor falling more than a couple seats short of majority, and most likely they will get to it.

By the way – the polls haven’t “tightened”, John. They crossed into Labor’s favour more than a month ago and the gap is now widening.

A good will be indicator will be the Canadian election, if there centre left party win then there’s chance Labor can do it here. I’m personally not convinced at the moment that Labor will get a second term as they are still struggling in Victoria and NSW with some seats on the outskirts of Brisbane and Perth. I’ll be on pre poll on Tuesday next week so it will be interesting to see.

History says no first term government did as well second time around, going back to when Scullin lost in 1931. Chifley lost 6 on a 4% 2PP swing in 1946, Ming nearly lost in 1951, Whitlam webt backwards in 1974, Hawke in 1984 increased the seat numbers by 23, 1.9% Swing, finished 7 ahead, and so on.
Albo will be on 77 election day, hoping for 76, he’s got history against him.

Apologies for flooding this page

@Darth Vader April 17, 2025 at 5:07 pm
Robertson-
Labor’s poll recovery nationally and in NSW means that any grievances/unpopularity of Labor won’t be strong enough to get a popular MP in Gordon Reid to be voted out. For a less reliable reason, it’s a traditional bellweather seat, so it’d be fitting for Labor to retain Robertson.

Chisholm-
Polling in VIC has improved for Labor, being reduced from a 5% swing back in Jan/Feb to just a 3.2% swing against Labor in April according to Pollbludger. If this poll recovery improves, Labor’s chances at retaining Chisholm looks better.

Also according to recent polling, it seems like the Chinese Australian vote is coming back to Labor. I assume this to be the case due to the current new trade war btw China and the US, and maybe Dutton’s rhetoric over Chinese ships being near Australia.

However, this prediction hinges on Labor improving on their polling in VIC and amongst Chinese Australians. There’s still 2 weeks left and anything could happen. (Although part of me having less confidence in his is due to my longstanding belief that Labor would lose Aston, McEwen and Chisholm at minimum in VIC)

Lyons-
This is, as described by Anglo Election Insights, a “Wildcard seat”. Lyons is held on a narrow margin and has been trending towards the coalition. It doesn’t necessarily move with the national polling trends; fits in well is Kevin Bonham’s assessment of Lyons being a seat which heavily depends on a candidate’s local connections.

Rebecca White’s high profile and popularity in Lyons might prove to be the factors that might help her retain Lyons for ALP, especially since there was a recent seat polling showing her winning against Bower in 2pp (even if it’s a narrow result- 50.6%)

Sentiment towards Labor seems to be improving, which adds some confidence in putting Lyons as an ALP hold. However I question whether Salmon Farming issue might harm them in Lyons, although the Liberals also support Salmon Farming so ig it won’t be that a big factor

@lurking this will be the last election labor will be able to win Lyons, Whitlam, Bruce and Blair. the redistribution in qld and tas will push those seats to the liberals. Bruce and Whitlam are trending to the coalition and they should have no problm overcoming the ex green in whitlam with a decent candidate.

adda. they will tighten back towards the libs especially fi we see more of that peter dutton from last night. but i cant see labor losing govt only a handful of marginal seats.

Macnamara:
Iirc there’s ~300 votes btw ALP and GRN in 3CP (accounting for redistribution), if Labor loses enough votes to both Liberals and Greens in that race the Greens will overtake Labor and proceed to 2pp count

Labor’s unpopular stance on Israel with Jewish voters, Macnamara trending towards Greens, Labor being a bit on the nose in VIC, and now backlash from both sides of the isle might prove enough for Burns to lose 300 or more votes in 3CP.

Even if the 4% swing in VIC won’t be pronounced in an inner city seat like Macnamara, Labor having an open ticket rather than preferencing the Greens has led to Burns taking backlash from both Progressives and Jewish voters. The latter’s attacking Burns for not putting the Greens last whilst Greens are attacking him as a non-left option who’s not doing his part to keep Liberals out of government.

Whether his personal vote will survive this and manage to keep Burns in 2nd place in 3CP count is up in the air. This is my most shakiest prediction and will definitely be subject to change.

also i cant see greens winning Wills especially since the libs will be preferencing

@adda they will face the loss of a t least 2 seats in Bean and Frematle due to libs preferencing the teals there. though Collins will hold in Franklin due to liberal preferences.

I don’t think Fremantle or Bean is a done deal yet. Whilst there are independent challengers who have Liberal preferences the margins should be enough for them to hang on and the other thing is that especially with Fremantle, the electorate takes in more than just Fremantle itself unlike the state seat. It also encompasses suburbs that are less teal friendly around Cockburn and Coogee, Henderson, Bibra Lake. If Hulett was able to come close but still fall short in a friendlier race it’s quite likely that she’ll cut into Wilson’s margin but still fall short. I think Fremantle’s a Labor retain unless anything happens inbetween now and then.

Bean, well it’s never a seat that should’ve been taken for granted as it’s the most conservative but it’s quite likely to be close but not close enough. The Liberal vote isn’t going to be much higher this time round considering the Liberal candidate just made some really awful remarks around Welcome to Country (which would fit fine in regional QLD and other places but not ACT) and David Smith is boring but not controversial. It’s not like a Denison 2010 style campaign where Labor didn’t even bother and Wilkie ended up narrowly overtaking them on preferences in a seat they should’ve easily won. It’ll be close but I still think Labor will retain but with the Independent in 2CP.

Fremantle was only by labor on liberal preferences I’d say they are simply retaliating for Curtin. At state level they were able to labor preferences in 4 seats vs the nats

Yeah Fremantle at a Federal level includes more bread and butter suburbs. Also Bean in the least progressive part of the ACT

Yea unfortunately canberra is too progressive for a teal

The coalition needs to press Labor on power lrices and negative gearing is where Dutton can wedge Labor and regain momentum

Two weeks out and it looks like Labor will be returned with a small majority or just in minority. However, it would seem that it will be driven by little or no enthusiasm because there is even less for Peter Dutton and the LNP. There will be a post election bounce but even by Christmas it will be grim for them. For the same reason that things were looking grim last year. But in a second term a government has nowhere to go. If the Libs don’t go backwards and get some new blood they might be on the hunt or they collapse in a heap like 1943 – that can’t be ruled out. Labor have had a majority in this term and done little since the end of 2023 – imagine how little they can do in minority. Not sure what the circuit breaker will be but there will need to be one.

Negative gearing not an issue

Im saying Labor minority. It will be a seat by seat battle. I don’t think the libs will lose any seats to Labor except maybe Sturt. The libs have 2 weeks to claw back some votes by election day. They just have to continue to press negative gearing and power prices.

Mick yes I bet bill shorten thought that in 2019.

It’s looking like an election where half the voters make a decision at the booth.
Not seeing much credibility in polling, if at least a third are voting 1 for other than the majors, then there are few seats that couldn’t be flipped by tactical voting.
Labor will start May 3 on 77, lose 2 and they’re a minority. No doubt Albo’s got a Slipper ready to don the gown, history going way back to 1931 tells us first term governments lose way more than 1 seat when chasing the second term.

@ John
bill shorten actually sort a mandate to reform negative gearing just like Hewson did with the GST and John Howard did in 1998.

Seats to watch on election night
Bullwinkel
Curtin
Tangey
Fremantle
Lingiari
Sturt
Blair
Leichardt
Brisbane
Ryan
Griffith
Richmond
Cowper
Paterson
Hunter
Shortland (wild card)
Robertson
Bennelong
Mackellar
Bradfield
Parramatta
Banks
Fowler
Whitlam
Gilmore
Bean
McEwen
Wannon
Bendigo (wildcard)
Hawke
Corangamitr
Gorton
Macnamara
Wills
Goldstein
Kooyong
Menzies
Deakin
Aston
Chisholm
Bruce
Monash
Lyons
Bass

What’s happening with Australia’s Voice, Fatima Payman’s party? They said they’d contest every house seat, that clearly hasn’t happened, where are they running?

Only I the senate. All states but Tasmania.

@Darth Vader agree mostly but I’ll be watching Franklin, Watson, Blaxland, Calare, Monash, Groom, Dickson, Fremantle, Bean, Cooper and Moore as possibly interesting crossbench seats, Dickson, Longman and Deakin as possible Labor targets and Werriwa, Boothby, Eden-Monaro and Reid as potential liberal targets on a good night. Of course, all of these are unlikely to swing, but possible on level with seats like Bendigo.

Also thanks John. Reckon they’re any chance for a spot in WA?

Nope it will be 2 Labor 1green 3 centre right (either 3 liberals or 2 liberals and possibly onp or nat)
Franklin Watson Blaxland will be Labor retain thanks to liberal preferences. Though the rest will be interesting. I’m gonna say Lib retain in Monash, Groom will be an easy lnp retain Garth Hamilton will be too strong. Calare is the wildcats seat for me. I’d expect PD to retain zdickson unless there’s some collapse but doubtful based on state breakdowns actually having the lnp vote up. Fremantle will be liberals. Bean if the ind can beat the greens and the libs can’t poll enough to make the count should be a ind gain. I assume you meant Cowper not Cooper? I’ve got that as a toss up leaning ind. Moore will probly be a liberal retain. I’ve got bendigo as a wildcats because the nats seem to be going all in there so it’s gonna be close.

@ Clarinets of Communists
Boothby, Swan and Reid are not in play all Labor retains
i am confident Libs will hold monash and Moore.
Cooper is not in play in 2025 for Greens.

I think he may have misspelled Cowper? Unless something goes horribly wrong no those 3 won’t be but never saynever

Idk polls haven’t improved for the libs in WA since 2022, the improved labor position seems intact. I’d say they could take the third labor seat, given a 4-2 left-right split seems likely to me.
Probably agree about the first three, unless labor falls out of 2cp, which is highly unlikely, near impossible except for maybe Franklin due to the low labor primary. I dunno about Monash, Broadbent is one of the longest serving MPs, and probably has a very high personal vote, I reckon it could happen. Same with Calare, and Moore to an extent, although I’d say Moore’s more likely lib retain. Agree with Dickson. Presume you meant Fremantle will be Labor, a lib win would be nigh on impossible. Bean I probably agree. I did mean Cooper as a greens reach target (probably should’ve given them their own category but couldn’t be bothered, and Darth Vader already had Cowper), although I doubt they’ll win it. Bendigo yeah it’s possible but I reckon the Labor margin’s too high this time around.

@Nimalan I agree it’s unlikely, but there’s still two weeks before election day (yes I know prepoll’s super popular these days but still) and anything can happen. That list of mine was pretty much a best case scenario for each party.

Labor can’t lose franklin. Libs and onp are prefencinglabor. The only way Labor loses franklin is if they finish 3rd. It was meant to read Fremantle will be interesting. If hulett can get over the greens which should be easy enough and then over the liberals she should be within a shot. If she can steal enough votes from Wilson she should be within a shot. Broadband is done I think k unless he pulls a miracle off. Calare is gonna be close. The nats seem to be throwing everything at Bendigo both zbridget Mckenzie and David little proud have made multiple visits and Andrew Lathlean seems to be a good candidate they will also be fit from strong liberal preferences. LisaChesters is seemingly not that popular.

@ Clarinet of Cabinets
Some reasons
1. Reid is not a mortgage belt seat has a large Chinese community largely Educated so not Dutton’ best demographic
2. Swan is simmilar that it includes small l liberal South Perth and working class ethnic suburbs. Also not mortgage belt and it is is more left leaning than WA as a whole.
3. Boothby is socially progresive, Tealish while Nicole Flint is a Hard Right candidate. Libs need to defend Sturt so a good idea to shift resources.
4. Monash has generally been declining for Labor due to de-industrailisation in the La Trobe Valley. I think Russell Broadbent is not more of a drag as he has less energy due to his age. IMHO he should have passed the torch to a new Liberal candidate maybe 2 elections ago and allowed for renewal.
5. Moore-a very Anglo and Upper Middle class electorate not small L liberal a bit more like Cook. Plus Labor will be focuing on sandbagging the seats it already has in WA.

In regard to the senate it will be a 3-3 result as people tend to vote differently in the upper house. In 2019 the reason why it delivered a 4-2 result was because the libs did not preference onp at all and some votes exhausted. If they had of onp would have beaten payment. I’d expect 2 lab 2 ljb 1 grn and probably onp

At thewa election the la swung 12.5 % and the upper house swung almost 20%

*Clarinet of Communists

Greens preferences in Monash Calare and Moore certainly complicated things. The greens are preferencong hook over gee in Calare and have preferences the libs over Broadbent and Goodeough in Monash and Moore respectively all but ending their hopes of reflection. Moore will probs my be lib v lab. Monash might be lib v ind. Does anyone know who labor is preferencong as their website gets an error on Monash htv. Calare will probably be Nat vs hook which the Nat will win again unless gee can somehow get above labor and hook. There’s a good chance gee could get eliminated before labor and even if he does labor’s vote might not be enough to get him above hook.

@John Yeah I know about Franklin, I reckon given the ALP primary’s only 35%, I reckon it’s possible they fall out of the 2CP. Freo I doubt she’ll win the federal seat if she couldn’t win the more left state seat, although she’s got more cred this time so it’s just possible.
@Darth Vader OK yeah if the Greens are doing that it probably kills them, and I doubt Hook can win, too many of Gee’s prefs will flow back to the nats.
@Nimalan yeah I know they’re all very long shots, as I said I was giving the best case scenarios, like polling’s consistently understating someone’s support. We could get a sleeper Trump style vote here, who knows.

Clarinet true that was the one exception i mentioned. in regards to freo hulett didnt have lib preferences at the state seat and the labor candidate had a much higher primary to begin with, it wil depend on how many votes she can strip from wilsons primary. also hook cannot win against the nat not this time. only gee has the ability to beat the nat.

Libs aren’t preferencing Hullet though are they?

they are

Hulett is a pretty good chance with Liberal preferences, and a spot of tactical voting.
Hard to see a way to majority government for the Labor machine, though it probably doesn’t matter anymore, 72 seats would be a comfortable win, imo.

Oh ok that definitely puts it in play.

Rest in peace Pope Francis.

I welcome the decision of both leaders to suspend their campaigns for the day to mourn the loss of the Pope.

Agreed. It’s nice to see campaigning being put aside like this.

@ NP/Darcy

I agree. I have great respect for Pope Francis and this is very sad day.

There is a Guardian article that the Trumpets were rejigging their HTV cards in Teal seats and Teal targets. Has this actually happened? I looked at Monash but it was hard to tell.

Palmer claimed it was hacking but likely the backlash has forced him to fix the problem

Think Palmer was to preference Teals over the main parties with the sitting member to be last.
Seems the Trumpet candidate for Flinders has had a hissy fit about the teal candidate getting a preference. Now Clive has come up with the hacking story

Yea he’s making that up cause it has backfired