Northern Victoria – Victoria 2022

Incumbent MLCs

• Mark Gepp (Labor), since 2017
• Wendy Lovell (Liberal), since 2002
• Tania Maxwell (Justice), since 2018
• Tim Quilty (Liberal Democrats), since 2018
• Jaclyn Symes (Labor), since 2014

• Geography
• Redistribution
• History
• 2018 result
• Preference flows
• Candidates
• Assessment
• Booth breakdown
• Results maps

Geography

Northern Victoria covers a large area stretching from the South Australian border to Wodonga along the Murray River, as well as including the northern fringe of Melbourne. The electorate covers the main centres of Bendigo, Mildura, Swan Hill, Wodonga and Shepparton.

Labor holds four seats in this region, along with three Nationals, two Liberals and two independents.

Redistribution
The Northern Victoria region pulled further away from the outskirts of Melbourne, losing Wallan, Beveridge, Wattle Glen and Diamond Creek to the Northern and North Eastern Metropolitan regions.

Northern Victoria gained the remainder of the Buloke council are from Western Victoria, including Charlton and Donald.

No seats in this region were created or abolished.

These changes slightly reduced the Labor vote and increased the Coalition vote, sufficient to put the Coalition in the lead.

History

The Northern Victoria region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

The region produced the same result at both the 2006 and 2010 elections: two Labor, two Liberal and one National.

The Liberal Party lost their second seat to the Shooters and Fishers party in 2014.

The Nationals and Shooters each lost their seat in 2018, with these two seats going to Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party and the Liberal Democrats.

2018 result

Preference flows
On primary votes, the Coalition and Labor each retained one seat, with both parties sitting on close to a full quota of votes for a second seat.

Let’s fast-forward until there were thirteen candidates running for the last three seats.

• Jaclyn Symes (ALP) – 0.901 quotas
• Luke O’Sullivan (NAT) – 0.865
• Daniel Young (SFF) – 0.477
• Nicole Rowan (GRN) – 0.415
• Tania Maxwell (DHJ) – 0.297
• Tim Quilty (LDP) – 0.294
• Glynn Jarrett (AJP) – 0.164
• Phil Larkin (ACP) – 0.157
• Miranda Jones (VEP) – 0.127
• Chris McCormack (DLP) – 0.089
• Dennis Lacey (ABP) – 0.087
• Isaac Golden (HAP) – 0.060
• Madeleine Wearne (SUS) – 0.060

Health Australia outpolled Sustainable Australia by just one vote at this crucial point. Sustainable Australia preferences strongly flowed to Hinch’s party:

• Symes (ALP) – 0.902
• O’Sullivan (NAT) – 0.865
• Young (SFF) – 0.478
• Rowan (GRN) – 0.418
• Maxwell (DHJ) – 0.342
• Quilty (LDP) – 0.295
• Jarrett (AJP) – 0.166
• Larkin (ACP) – 0.158
• Jones (VEP) – 0.129
• McCormack (DLP) – 0.089
• Lacey (ABP) – 0.088
• Golden (HAP) – 0.061

HAP preferences flowed strongly to the Country Party:

• Symes (ALP) – 0.902
• O’Sullivan (NAT) – 0.866
• Young (SFF) – 0.479
• Rowan (GRN) – 0.421
• Maxwell (DHJ) – 0.344
• Quilty (LDP) – 0.295
• Larkin (ACP) – 0.208
• Jarrett (AJP) – 0.168
• Jones (VEP) – 0.130
• McCormack (DLP) – 0.089
• Lacey (ABP) – 0.088

Aussie Battler preferences mostly flowed to the Liberal Democrats:

• Symes (ALP) – 0.903
• O’Sullivan (NAT) – 0.866
• Young (SFF) – 0.480
• Rowan (GRN) – 0.421
• Quilty (LDP) – 0.376
• Maxwell (DHJ) – 0.345
• Larkin (ACP) – 0.209
• Jarrett (AJP) – 0.168
• Jones (VEP) – 0.130
• McCormack (DLP) – 0.089

Democratic Labour preferences flowed to the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers:

• Symes (ALP) – 0.903
• O’Sullivan (NAT) – 0.869
• Young (SFF) – 0.561
• Rowan (GRN) – 0.421
• Quilty (LDP) – 0.377
• Maxwell (DHJ) – 0.345
• Jarrett (AJP) – 0.169
• Larkin (ACP) – 0.210
• Jones (VEP) – 0.130

Voluntary Euthanasia preferences strongly favoured Animal Justice:

• Symes (ALP) – 0.906
• O’Sullivan (NAT) – 0.870
• Young (SFF) – 0.564
• Rowan (GRN) – 0.426
• Quilty (LDP) – 0.377
• Maxwell (DHJ) – 0.352
• Jarrett (AJP) – 0.274
• Larkin (ACP) – 0.211

Country Party preferences flowed strongly to the Liberal Democrats:

• Symes (ALP) – 0.906
• O’Sullivan (NAT) – 0.872
• Quilty (LDP) – 0.576
• Young (SFF) – 0.567
• Rowan (GRN) – 0.427
• Maxwell (DHJ) – 0.354
• Jarrett (AJP) – 0.275

Animal Justice preferences split roughly evenly between the Liberal Democrats and the Justice Party, pushing Justice ahead of the Greens:

• Symes (ALP) – 0.909
• O’Sullivan (NAT) – 0.872
• Quilty (LDP) – 0.702
• Young (SFF) – 0.569
• Maxwell (DHJ) – 0.481
• Rowan (GRN) – 0.435

Greens preferences flowed strongly to Hinch’s party, but also brought Labor closer to a quota:

• Symes (ALP) – 0.968
• O’Sullivan (NAT) – 0.874
• Maxwell (DHJ) – 0.801
• Quilty (LDP) – 0.704
• Young (SFF) – 0.572

Shooters preferences pushed the Liberal Democrats over a quota, electing them to the third seat:

• Quilty (LDP) – 1.143
• Symes (ALP) – 0.972
• O’Sullivan (NAT) – 0.886
• Maxwell (DHJ) – 0.893

Liberal Democrats preferences pushed Maxwell up to a quota and also put Labor in a clear lead over the Nationals for the fifth seat, leaving the Nationals stranded without a seat:

• Quilty (LDP) – 1.000
• Maxwell (DHJ) – 1.000
• Symes (ALP) – 0.994
• O’Sullivan (NAT) – 0.898

Candidates

• A – Kim Warner (Health Australia)
• B – Melanie Sharp (Reason)
• C – Josh Knight (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
• D – Laura Barnes (Companions and Pets)
• E – Karen Hocking (Victorian Socialists)
• F – Adam Miller (Legalise Cannabis)
• G – Geoff Shaw (United Australia)

• H – Labor
  1. Jaclyn Symes
  2. James McWhinney
  3. Gareth Mills
  4. Rahn Krammaer
  5. Mitch Bridges

• I – Liberal/Nationals
  1. Wendy Lovell (Liberal)
  2. Gaelle Broad (Nationals)
  3. Amanda Millar (Liberal)
  4. Liz Fisher (Nationals)
  5. Jillian Merkel (Liberal)
• J – Tim Quilty (Liberal Democrats)
• K – Mark Jones (Angry Victorians)
• L – Tania Maxwell (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
• M – Yasemin Ceylan (Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews)
• N – Cate Sinclair (Greens)
• O – Ian Chivers (Sustainable Australia)
• P – Erin Sharma (New Democrats)
• Q – Scott Cowie (Transport Matters)
• R – Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell (One Nation)
• S – Georgie Purcell (Animal Justice)
• T – Mark Royal (Democratic Labour)
• U – Christopher James Alan Neil (Freedom Party)
• V – Michael White (Family First)

Assessment
Northern Victoria is a conservative region with a low vote for the major parties and a large vote for conservative minor parties.

Only two seats (one Labor and one Liberal) are certain. It’s likely one of the major parties will win a second seat, and it’s likely a minor party will win a seat. The other seat could go to the other major party or to another minor party.

Amongst the minor parties, there’s not much reason to think the incumbent MLCs would be the favourites to retain their seats. It’s quite likely others could challenge if they can gain sufficient preference flows.

Regional breakdown
Labor narrowly topped the poll in Northern Victoria in 2018, but the redistribution changed the boundaries sufficiently to leave the Coalition as the top-polling ticket.

The Coalition topped the primary vote in seven electorates, while Labor came first in the other four.

The Coalition vote ranged from just 21.3% in Bendigo West and 22.4% in Yan Yean up to 44.6% in Murray Plains.

The Labor vote ranged from just 19.2% in Murray Plains to 48.7% in Yan Yean.

Results of the 2018 Victorian upper house election in the Northern Victori region

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