IND 5.3% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Suzanna Sheed, since 2014.
Geography
Northern Victoria. Shepparton covers the major centres of Shepparton, Mooroopna, Nathalia and Numurkah. The electorate covers most of the Greater Shepparton council area, and western parts of Moira Shire.
History
The seat of Shepparton first existed from 1945 to 1955, and again since 1967. In that time it had always been won by the Country/National Party, until 2014.
Peter Ross-Edwards held Shepparton for first the Country Party and then National Party from 1967 until his resignation in 1991.
The 1991 by-election was won by National candidate Don Kilgour. He was re-elected in 1992, 1996 and 1999, and retired in 2002.
In 2002, the National Party’s Jeanette Powell, who had served as an MLC for North-East province since 1996, won the seat in a close contest with the Liberal candidate. She was re-elected in 2006 and 2010.
Jeanette Powell served as a minister from 2010 to early 2014, when she moved to the backbench after announcing her plans to retire at the 2014 election.
The Nationals lost Shepparton in 2014 to independent candidate Suzanna Sheed. Sheed was re-elected in 2018.
- Kim O’Keeffe (Nationals)
- Ian Christoe (Greens)
- Katherine Taylor (Animal Justice)
- Sueie McGrath (Democratic Labour)
- Diane M. Teasdale (Freedom Party)
- Liam Cowan (Labor)
- Cheryl Hammer (Liberal)
- Suzanna Sheed (Independent)
- Alison White (Family First)
Assessment
Shepparton remains very marginal.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Suzanna Sheed | Independent | 15,856 | 38.4 | +5.7 |
| Cheryl Hammer | Liberal | 10,967 | 26.6 | +26.6 |
| Peter Schwarz | Nationals | 5,382 | 13.0 | -22.3 |
| Bill Heath | Labor | 4,772 | 11.6 | -6.3 |
| Murray Willaton | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 3,314 | 8.0 | +8.0 |
| Nickee Freeman | Greens | 999 | 2.4 | -1.0 |
| Informal | 2,396 | 5.5 | -0.4 |
2018 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Suzanna Sheed | Independent | 22,833 | 55.3 | +2.7 |
| Cheryl Hammer | Liberal | 18,457 | 44.7 | +44.7 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Cheryl Hammer | Liberal | 25,484 | 61.7 | -1.6 |
| Bill Heath | Labor | 15,806 | 38.3 | +1.6 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. The Shepparton council area has been split into central, north and south-west, with the Moira council area grouped together.
Sheed won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the three Shepparton areas, ranging from 51.8% in the north to 56.5% in the south-west. The Liberal Party polled 51.7% in Moira.
| Voter group | ALP prim % | IND 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Shepparton Central | 12.5 | 55.1 | 10,699 | 25.9 |
| Shepparton South-West | 12.9 | 56.5 | 5,399 | 13.1 |
| Moira | 10.5 | 48.3 | 4,645 | 11.2 |
| Shepparton North | 5.3 | 51.8 | 1,266 | 3.1 |
| Pre-poll | 10.9 | 57.6 | 15,307 | 37.1 |
| Other votes | 13.0 | 54.7 | 3,974 | 9.6 |
Election results in Shepparton at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (independent vs Liberal) and primary votes for independent candidate Suzanna Sheed, the Liberal Party, the Nationals and Labor.
Rematch here, Cheryl Hammer is running again for the Libs. Sheed will hold, Shepp Mayor Kim O’Keefe is probably the only person who could win this seat back at the moment realistically.
well… shit…
https://www.sheppnews.com.au/news/mayor-bids-for-state-seat/
O’Keefe is running with the Nats
Well, intending to nominate, but she’ll get it.
Shepparton might be in trouble here actually, the new Shepparton Super School is notably unpopular locally and Suzanna Sheed has been a big backer of the new school. She could very well be in trouble this election actually despite what it seems like on the surface.
Yeah I agree Hamish. I’ve been following that disaster and I fail to see how Sheed will retain.
There could be a 1999-style backlash against the Andrews government in the regions.
I’ve heard nothing about the school for months now here, I really don’t think that it’ll weigh into the vote as much as people might think, or as much as it might have say a year ago.
Sheed is officially in for a third go
https://www.sheppnews.com.au/news/sheed-confirms-she-will-run-in-november-spruiks-independents-record/
The LNP will need to win here if they want to have a chance of getting back into office however you would say that Suzanna Sheed being a member for 8 years is a big ask but it has happened before.
Last figure’s 60/40.split again the coalition candidates
.
The school issue may not help the Nats as much as you might think – Sam Birrell and Kim O’Keefe both supported it, and the lobby group upset about the super school have been pretty vicious in their criticism of Birrell.
Hammer outpolled the Nats last time and might do so again.
I think Suzanna Sheed is in trouble here, the new big school is the *big* issue in Shepparton and it’s become quite controversial. Sheed is a big backer of the new school, and gets most of her vote from in Shepparton not the areas around it, so if she loses votes from Shepparton this seat could be lost.
This could be one to watch, and a seat that could very well fall to the Liberals (or NATs but they didn’t fair well once the Liberal candidate was an option in 2018).
How do we think the floods will affect sentiment in this seat?
Liam Cowan has been announced as the ALP candidate.
Suzanna Sheed will hold.
An independent candidate (backed by Suzanna Sheed) won most booths in the town of Shepparton at the federal election. There was huge support for UAP, ONP and LDP at the smaller booths outside Shepparton proper but I doubt likeminded parties will help knock off Suzanna Sheed.
The anti-Super School crowd seem to have latched on to the Lib candidate, do we think she has any chance or perhaps of repeating the 2018 performance where she beat the Nats?
I saw an add of the sitting member on this website even though I don’t live in Victoria. Has anyone else seen ads of her? Her slogan is “Getting results” perhaps she is worries as that’s why her campaign is putting out ads?
I must admit I am curious why this swung so heavily to the Nationals. Normally you only see this happen if its either a landslide victory, or an opposition can tie the independent to an unpopular government on the way out (e.g. Oakeshott and Windsor).
Were the Nationals able to portray Sheed as a Labor stooge? Were they able to distance themselves from the Liberals and act as a quasi-independent party themselves? Especially good Nats candidate?
As an outsider it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
I agree I would have picked this
As independent retain.. but nats
Won
Mark Mulcair, I read some analysis that the Nationals polled well in the border and rural districts as they successfully tied some of the independents to Labor and their support for lockdown restrictions.
Many residents in these communities were frustrated with things like border closures and the hoops they had to jump through to obtain travel passes. These residents were also angry about excessive restrictions applied even to areas that had few or no covid cases during the peak waves.
Also, I believe the Vic Nationals successfully carved their own brand by attempting to distance themselves from the more populist influences federally, through moving towards a centrist position (not seen as being against climate change) and by running more female candidates.
Comments above say it’s Suzanna Sheed’s support for the controversial super school.
Overall, the Nats scored 2PP swings in all their seats except one. There was talk amongst election night panellists about how the Libs could or should bring in gender quotas to match the success of Labor and the Nats.
Why do Independents lose re-election in Victoria? They also lost in 2010 as well. Why does this state like dumping them? NSW only dumped them during the landslide year of 2011, Queensland never dumps them, And at a federal level they are rarely dumped.