Benambra – Victoria 2022

LIB 2.6% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Bill Tilley, since 2006.

Geography
Northeastern Victoria. Benambra covers the City of Wodonga and surrounding regional areas, including the towns of Chiltern, Rutherglen, Yackandandah, Beechworth, Tallangatta, and Corryong.

Redistribution
Benambra contracted on its southern border, losing the remainder of the Alpine council area to Ovens Valley. This change increased the Liberal two-party-preferred margin from 8.9% to 9.4%.

History
Benambra has existed as an electoral district since 1877. In that time, the seat has always been held by non-Labor parties. The Country Party held the seat from 1932 to 1976, and the Liberal Party has held it since 1976.

The seat was a contest between the old liberal and conservative parties from 1877 to 1889, when Albert Craven of the conservative party won the seat. He ended up holding the seat until 1913 and joining the official Liberal Party.

In 1913, Benambra was won by Liberal John Leckie. He won the federal seat of Indi as a Nationalist in 1917, leaving Benambra. He held Indi for only one term, but he later served as a Senator for Victoria from 1934 to 1947, serving as a federal minister from 1940 to 1941.

Benambra was won in 1917 by Henry Beardmore, a conservative member who held it for the Nationalists and the United Australia Party until his death in 1932.

The Country Party’s James Paton won the seat at the ensuing by-election, and held it until his death in 1947. He was succeeded by Thomas Mitchell, also of the Country Party. Mitchell served as Attorney-General in the state government from 1950 to 1952, and held the seat until 1976.

Upon Mitchell’s retirement in 1976, the Liberal Party’s Lou Lieberman won the seat. He served as a minister in the state government from 1979 to 1982, and held Benambra until 1992. In 1993 he was elected to the federal seat of Indi, which he held until 2001.

Benambra was held from 1992 to 2006 by Tony Plowman. In 2006, he was succeeded by Bill Tilley. Bill Tilley has been re-elected three times.

Candidates

Assessment
Benamba is a safe Liberal seat against Labor. The seat could be vulnerable to an independent, depending on who runs.

2018 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Bill Tilley Liberal 16,515 39.9 -14.8 40.1
Mark Tait Labor 7,467 18.0 -13.3 17.7
Jacqui Hawkins Independent 6,687 16.1 +16.1 16.1
Jenny O’Connor Independent 5,427 13.1 +13.1 13.4
Josh Knight Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 3,774 9.1 +9.1 9.2
John Bardsley Greens 1,565 3.8 -5.3 3.5
Informal 2,336 5.3 +0.8

2018 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Bill Tilley Liberal 21,732 52.5 -7.2 52.6
Jacqui Hawkins Independent 19,703 47.6 +47.6 47.4

2018 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Bill Tilley Liberal 24,393 58.9 -0.8 59.4
Mark Tait Labor 17,013 41.1 +0.8 40.6

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: Wodonga, Indigo and the east.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 54.4% in Indigo to 67.9% in the east.

Two independent candidates polled almost 30% between them, with a vote ranging from 22.1% in the east to 33.9% in Indigo.

Voter group IND prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Wodonga 31.1 56.9 7,997 20.3
Indigo 33.9 54.4 7,056 17.9
East 22.1 67.9 2,597 6.6
Pre-poll 29.2 61.7 17,136 43.5
Other votes 25.8 58.0 4,584 11.6

Election results in Benambra at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidates, Labor and the Shooters, Fishers & Farmers.

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22 COMMENTS

  1. An Independent got very close in 2018, wouldn’t be surprised if they ran again off the support of Helen Haines. Nearby Ovens Valley would also be susceptible to an independent challenger, the local National MP was charged with a number of fraud offences just before the last election but cleared in court in 2021. Interesting to see what damage that would’ve done to his local reputation.
    Benambra and Ovens Valley both cover the electorate of Indi, so the starting base is already there.

  2. If the claims of guilt by the Prosecution didn’t damage him, then I guess the verdict of innocence from the Judge won’t hurt him either.

  3. Jacqui Hawkins is re-contesting in November, she came within around 1000 votes of winning in 2018.

    This is probably the most likely Independent gain in the state. Liberals will likely throw a lot at trying to avoid losing this seat, they can’t afford any losses.

  4. Yeah, this is entirely in Helen Haines’s electorate. She got a huge 7.5% swing in Indi but it’s probably the incumbency effect.

    I assume the last map combines the primary vote of both independent candidates in 2018.

  5. McGowan was still federal MP when this was last up. Since then Haines has proven you can still win as an independent in this region with the right campaign.

    IND gain since Hawkins is running again, but will be marginal.

  6. Especially if Guy survives until the election. This dodgy money business with his chief of staff is madness, and totally toxic.

  7. @Mark The problem with the Matthew Guy scandal is that it basically neutralises the Libs’ campaign on integrity. It doesn’t mean the Labor corruption is ok at all but in the eyes of the average voter, it makes the Libs look as bad as Labor in terms of integrity and corruption. It also has echoes of 2018 with the lobster with a mobster campaign and we all know how well that turned out for the Libs then. That is why the scandal has scared so many Lib MPs and candidates to the point that some want to Matthew Guy to be replaced. The state Libs seem to have a problem where every time it finally looks like they are getting back in the game, an internal problem happens and messes everything up just like with the Tim Smith drunk driving incident last November.

  8. @Dan M

    I won’t argue at all with that, but the problem comes when VIC Labor/Dan supporters point the finger at Guy when Dan himself held repeated quid-pro-quo dinners at the Flower Drum restaurant in China Town. He met corrupt developer John Woodman there who, at the time, was representing none other than Antonio Madafferi, also known as the lobster monster. Funny how that barely got any attention. Anyway….

    So it’s hilarious that Matthew Guy gets all the flack when Dan is actually worse, especially when you account for all the misuse of taxpayer funds, the failed infrastructure projects, health system failures, VicForrests logging, IBAC hearings and so on (literally too many to list).

    Of course, any corruption that Dan’s involved in gets about 5 minutes in the media, while Matthew Guy gets an entire week on one issue, so this plays a huge part on how the two are perceived by the average voter.

    Ultimately there will be a swing to the Libs in seat count and vote share regardless, because Dan generates more hatred than Matthew Guy. A potato could take the place of Guy and the Libs would still get a swing towards them at this point. Best case for the Libs would be to pick up Hawthorne (quite likely at this stage), and parachute Pesutto in as Leader. If John was Lib leader now, Dan would be facing wipeout.

  9. Matthew Guy is already spending time up in this electorate with election promises, I think the Liberals are fairly worried they could lose this seat to Jacqui Hawkins the Independent. Very difficult to find any path for the Liberals to form a majority government if they’re losing seats at the same time to the cross-bench and Labor in other parts of the state.

  10. Jacqui Hawkins, a former advisor to Cathy McGowan, will run again. Matthew Guy and the Libs have reasons to be worried based on federal election results.

    Helen Haines got a 7.5% swing to her and scored a higher 2PP result than what Cathy McGowan ever did in Indi. Indi covers all of Benambra and most of Owens Valley.

    Jacqui Hawkins ran in 2018, long before Helen Haines or Zali Steggall entered federal parliament. She may feel buoyed by independent and teal successes at the federal election and would want to emulate them. On the flip side, the Liberals may have learned a thing or two from the close call here in 2018 and their federal election losses.

  11. I still think this is a likely Independent gain. Also, there are so many Liberal/National MPs in regional Victoria who have held seats like this for close to 20 years and basically never left the backbench – really odd.

    More people in Indi voted for Haines in May than had ever voted for McGowan or Haines previously, so Hawkin’s chances a pretty decent.

  12. It’s very much a target to border electorates like Benambra and Mildura where kids in NSW get their P’s at 17.

  13. @Witness This pledge if implemented would likely apply statewide as in the other states. Although, you’re 100% right with it being a target pledge in border seats.

  14. I think this seat and Pakenham are the best examples of federal results not necessarily translating to state results. Haines would have won this by around 9% yet Tilley was re-elected by around 1%.

  15. @Ben the sweetest moment was when the Voices volunteers left the prepoll count at 1am in the morning cussing how they could of lost.

  16. the way election night was here you would of thought it was a presidential election. there was no state election here just Tilley v Hawkins.

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