Yan Yean – Victoria 2022

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  1. Wandong booth looks out of place here but I assume that the demographics change here will lead it to be gained by labor.

  2. Last time, the Liberal candidate was disensorsed which is why all booths in the old Yan Yean voted Labor. Wandong was in Euroa last time which is why it was not won by Labor. In fact the East of the seat is more affluent in Nilumbik Shire, the Plenty booth is usually strongly liberal compare the Plenty booth to the federal seat of McEwen. Assuming there is no disendorsement again then i expect the Plenty booth to be sapphire blue in November.

  3. This seat is interesting and has changed a lot over the years. It feels like the Liberals have always underperformed here, it was made marginally Liberal in 2002 but the Liberals had a big swing against them that election. It’s also a growth area with new developments throughout the electorate. Despite the Liberals always underperforming it’s always usually a marginal until last election so Labor shouldn’t take this seat for granted, especially without an incumbent. I think Labor will hold but the margin will be interesting.

  4. This seat has the kind of demographics that the Libs are increasingly appealing to at the expense of their traditional affluent base so I’d expect the Libs to exceed expectations here. This is also the sort of demographic that would be anti-lockdown and anti-Covid restrictions so the state Libs pandering towards the anti-vax mob might benefit them here. That being said, I doubt it’s enough to get the Libs over the line to win this seat but it would be one of the few glimmers of hope for the incompotent state Lib party who will probably lose even more seats in their traditional heartland of Eastern Melbourne.

  5. This seats margin is probably deceptive, before last election Labor only held it on a 3.6% margin and got a massive swing due to Labor popularity and a disendorsed Lib candidate. I think the seat is way out of reach on the margin it is now and i don’t think it will get back to that 3.6% margin this election but i think without an incumbent this seat will go below 60% TPP for Labor. Seats that Labor hold by a margin of or greater than 10% TPP that will go below that this election i think are Yan Yean, Wendouree, Macedon, Sunbury, Niddrie, Ivanhoe, Narre Warren North and South, Bentleigh, Mordialloc, Carrum and Frankston

  6. The margin on this seat is very deceiving. The Liberal candidate was disendorsed in 2018 so margin is artificially high, the sitting MP isn’t running for re-election and was previously marginal before the 2010 and 2014 election. Anti-lockdown sentiment around this area is also high – this was one of the areas the federal Liberal’s used the “send Dan Andrews a message” slogan on election day.
    Wouldn’t surprise me if this seat flipped to Liberal but surrounding seats on smaller margins didn’t flip.

  7. Not while Matthew Guy is leading them, Unless you are presuming Michael O’Brien takes over again? Guy will lose in a landslide because he and Tim Smith are anti-lockdown. and Andrews response to the pandemic was popular especially to older voters (Like what it was here in QLD and WA)

  8. I do agree that margin is inflated but many growth areas have an anti lockdown sentiment especially due to the fact that home-schooling etc would have had a bigger impact here than in more established areas. However, this election maybe the last opportunity for the Libs to win it as population growth will likely mean that it will loose semi-rural and more affluent areas like Plenty in future redistributions and become just another Northern Suburbs seat.


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