Nationals will be going hard to win this back I assume, but I think most likely Independent retain – Cupper has increased her margin 3 elections in a row when she was ALP candidate in 2010, Independent in 2014 and won in 2018.
Despite how safe this area is for the Nationals on a federal level, this seat has rarely been too safe for the Nats on a state level since before 1996 – still genuine frustration about the rail line being cut…
Nats are deluded if they think they can win this.
How are the Nats “deluded”? Indi barely won last election, and Labor have fallen out of favour in regional Victoria.
The 2PP margin was less than a point in 2018, which was a high watermark for Labor (the “independent” Mildura MP is a former Labor MP). Nats definitely have a chance to gain here.
Not if Crispp is the candidate. No chance. The reason they lost it last time was because of him.
Crispp lost by less than a point in a high water mark year for Labor.
With a swing against the Andrews government, even just a slight one, he’d win.
No he wouldn’t. You’re a bit delusional to think so because Cupper IS NOT a Labor MP and is an independent. Independents usually increase their support after 1 term especially rural ones, the independents that lost their seats in 2010 and 2011 in NSW was because the swing was large towards to coalition. It is unlikely to happen in Victoria this year.
Crispp will easily lose if he is the candidate and I’d be happy to be proven wrong on this.
Jade Benham, recently Mayor of Swan Hill, is National Party candidate for Mildura. Swan Hill is in the electorate of Murray Plains.
@Mark you don’t account for the sophomore surge or the fact that Cupper hasn’t done anything controversial or unpopular. She will get a swing towards her.
Meanwhile what have the nats done? Their campaign prowess in Victoria isn’t great these days.
No it isn’t.
Swan Hill and surrounding areas are solely within Murray Plains, alongside Echuca, Kyabram and not much else.
The northern half of Swan Hill Rural City (Robinvale, Manangatang, Wemen and Piangil) is in the district of Mildura. Swan Hill township and neighbouring towns are in Murray Plains.
Benham’s website says she lives in a Bannerton, a locality south of Robinvale – so in that area that is both Swan Hill Rural City and Mildura District. That said, I expect Cupper to be returned with an increased primary and Labor and Green preferences.
Another seat that LNP will need to win to get back into office.
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Nationals will be going hard to win this back I assume, but I think most likely Independent retain – Cupper has increased her margin 3 elections in a row when she was ALP candidate in 2010, Independent in 2014 and won in 2018.
Despite how safe this area is for the Nationals on a federal level, this seat has rarely been too safe for the Nats on a state level since before 1996 – still genuine frustration about the rail line being cut…
Nats are deluded if they think they can win this.
How are the Nats “deluded”? Indi barely won last election, and Labor have fallen out of favour in regional Victoria.
The 2PP margin was less than a point in 2018, which was a high watermark for Labor (the “independent” Mildura MP is a former Labor MP). Nats definitely have a chance to gain here.
Not if Crispp is the candidate. No chance. The reason they lost it last time was because of him.
Crispp lost by less than a point in a high water mark year for Labor.
With a swing against the Andrews government, even just a slight one, he’d win.
No he wouldn’t. You’re a bit delusional to think so because Cupper IS NOT a Labor MP and is an independent. Independents usually increase their support after 1 term especially rural ones, the independents that lost their seats in 2010 and 2011 in NSW was because the swing was large towards to coalition. It is unlikely to happen in Victoria this year.
Crispp will easily lose if he is the candidate and I’d be happy to be proven wrong on this.
Jade Benham, recently Mayor of Swan Hill, is National Party candidate for Mildura. Swan Hill is in the electorate of Murray Plains.
@Mark you don’t account for the sophomore surge or the fact that Cupper hasn’t done anything controversial or unpopular. She will get a swing towards her.
Meanwhile what have the nats done? Their campaign prowess in Victoria isn’t great these days.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/mildura2022/comment-page-1#comment-773614
To be fair, part of the Rural City of Swan Hill LGA is in Mildura district.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/mildura2022/comment-page-1#comment-773624
No it isn’t.
Swan Hill and surrounding areas are solely within Murray Plains, alongside Echuca, Kyabram and not much else.
The northern half of Swan Hill Rural City (Robinvale, Manangatang, Wemen and Piangil) is in the district of Mildura. Swan Hill township and neighbouring towns are in Murray Plains.
Benham’s website says she lives in a Bannerton, a locality south of Robinvale – so in that area that is both Swan Hill Rural City and Mildura District. That said, I expect Cupper to be returned with an increased primary and Labor and Green preferences.
Another seat that LNP will need to win to get back into office.