Podcast #147: What might a hung parliament look like?
Ben is joined by Peter Brent and the ABC's Tom Crowley for the final pre-election episode of the 2025 federal election campaign. We discuss...
How results play out across election night
This blog post is an update to two blog posts I wrote in 2022, looking at the rate of counting progress on election night...
How do results vary between election day and early voting?
As increasing numbers of Australians have chosen to vote early, we have now reached a point where the country is split roughly into two...
Early voting is holding at very high levels
Rates of early voting have been increasing for a long time, but reached a record high level of 2022, in the wake of the...
How will the states swing?
Australia's states often swing in different ways, with trends noticeable at the state level rather than just at the state or regional level. For...
Podcast #146: The dropping major party vote
Ben is joined by Jill Sheppard and Emily Foley to discuss the long-term trend of the major parties losing primary votes: what is causing...
Where might sophomore surge have an impact in 2025?
In yesterday's blog post I analysed the historical evidence for sophomore surge having an impact in Australian federal elections, dating back to 1998.
"Sophomore surge"...
What’s the historical evidence for sophomore surge?
I have referenced the concept of "personal vote" and "sophomore surge" quite a few times during this campaign, and in the past, but I...
Button pushed for WA upper house
Over five weeks after the state election was held, the WA Electoral Commission has finally concluded the counting procedure for the WA Legislative Council,...
Podcast #145: Enrolments hit a record high
Ben is joined by Duncan McDonnell from Griffith University to discuss the close of rolls and nominations and the role of Gen Z voters...