How seats changed relative to Australia in 2025
I've previously posted a number of times before about the dataset I have compiled of election results since 2004, adjusted for 2025 electoral boundaries.
Most...
Getting closer to the Bradfield 2PP
UPDATE: The original blog post was published on June 18. The AEC published the full 3CP data for all of Australia on June 23....
Podcast #151: Tasmania goes back to the polls
Ben is joined by Kevin Bonham to discuss the collapse of the Tasmanian government just 15 months after the last election, and to look...
What might the 2PP be in Bradfield?
The Australian Electoral Commission conducts a two-party-preferred vote in every seat, which is a count between Labor and the leading Liberal or Nationals candidate....
The House-Senate vote difference
While there's a lot of similarities in how Australians vote between the House and the Senate, they've never voted exactly the same. For a...
Tasmanian election guide launched
While my focus has been very much on the federal election, events have been developing in Tasmania, which culminated in a vote of no...
Podcast #150: Bradfield was a draw, for a moment there
For this podcast Ben interviews two scrutineers about their experience in the recounts: Adelaide, a Liberal scrutineer from Bradfield, and KJ, an independent scrutineer...
Are seats getting closer? Maybe not
We are still waiting for the final 2PP figures - they've finished in 149 seats and have even started the 2PP count in Bradfield...
Senate preferences playing a bigger role
Yesterday's final result in New South Wales was a bit of a surprise, with One Nation closing a primary vote margin of 0.21 quotas....
Correcting some of the 2CP swings
Prior to the election, I drew attention to the differences between my calculations and those of the AEC for a number of non-classic seats...