The ‘others’ primary vote in Tasmania
The trend of a falling major party vote isn't quite the same in Tasmania as it is on the mainland.
While the major parties maintained...
Podcast #152: Who will fill the Lambie vacuum?
Ben was joined by Tasmanian political observer Mike Lester to look at the state of the campaign and the announcement of candidates for the...
Tasmanian nominations – ballots shrink with fewer prominent independents
Nominations were announced today for the Tasmanian state election. After record-sized ballot papers at the previous election in 2024, they will shrink slightly in...
Who makes the 3CP, where?
The three-candidate-preferred (3CP) count has become a topic of more interest in recent elections because of close races where the dynamic of who makes...
Who else do independent voters vote for?
There were 21 seats in 2025 where an independent candidate made the two-candidate-preferred count. For today's post, I want to explore what we can...
How preferences made up the 2PP
The two-party-preferred vote is the simplest statistic we have in Australian elections - just two numbers that always add up to 100%. While it...
3CP data sheds light on the close races
Late on Monday, the AEC transitioned the election results website to its final archive form. You can now find the results at results.aec.gov.au, and...
The make-up of the marginal seat list
Earlier this month I published a blog post which discovered that the average 2CP margin of victory has not actually been getting smaller at...
How the vote split between the early vote and election day
Last month I posted about the increase in the proportion of votes that were cast early (postal, pre-poll and remote) as opposed to those...
How the swing was distributed, and how the pendulum performed
Now that we have a complete two-party-preferred vote for all of Australia, we can look at the distribution of seat margins and swings across...