The make-up of the marginal seat list
Earlier this month I published a blog post which discovered that the average 2CP margin of victory has not actually been getting smaller at...
How the vote split between the early vote and election day
Last month I posted about the increase in the proportion of votes that were cast early (postal, pre-poll and remote) as opposed to those...
How the swing was distributed, and how the pendulum performed
Now that we have a complete two-party-preferred vote for all of Australia, we can look at the distribution of seat margins and swings across...
Tasmanian candidates rush out
It has barely been two weeks since the no confidence motion passed, and just over a week since the Tasmanian state election has been...
How seats changed relative to Australia in 2025
I've previously posted a number of times before about the dataset I have compiled of election results since 2004, adjusted for 2025 electoral boundaries.
Most...
Getting closer to the Bradfield 2PP
Last week I wrote about the dilemma of how to estimate a two-party-preferred vote in Bradfield. An actual two-party-preferred count has not been conducted...
Podcast #151: Tasmania goes back to the polls
Ben is joined by Kevin Bonham to discuss the collapse of the Tasmanian government just 15 months after the last election, and to look...
What might the 2PP be in Bradfield?
The Australian Electoral Commission conducts a two-party-preferred vote in every seat, which is a count between Labor and the leading Liberal or Nationals candidate....
The House-Senate vote difference
While there's a lot of similarities in how Australians vote between the House and the Senate, they've never voted exactly the same. For a...
Tasmanian election guide launched
While my focus has been very much on the federal election, events have been developing in Tasmania, which culminated in a vote of no...