Archive for March, 2009

8:57pm – I’m signing off now. I just posted my electoral maps.

8:36pm – Lawrence Springborg will resign as LNP leader.

8:20pm – By popular demand, here is minor party news: Pauline Hanson is on 21.7% in Beaudesert. The DS4SEQ won 0.95%, which comes out to about 3% average in the seats they contested. The Greens polled 8.3%, up from 8% in 2006. In the four key Greens seats, Gary Kane suffered a 4% swing against him, polling 17.4%, Anne Boccabella polled 17%, down from 18% in 2006 for Larissa Waters and 33% for Boccabella at the 2007 by-election. In Indooroopilly Ronan Lee has polled 26.1%, just behind Sarah Warner. This is down from 40% as the ALP candidate in 2006, and not very impressive considering how much Greens resources was poured into the seat. The big winner for the Greens is Larissa Waters, who gained 1.9% in Mount Coot-tha, polling 23.8%, just 2.3% behind Ronan Lee despite Lee’s resources and incumbency.

8:11pm – Why is Anna Bligh speaking before Springborg concedes? Wtf?

8:08pm – George Brandis accused Wayne Swan of pulling out as ABC panelist because he was worried that they would lose, before turning up later. Swan denies it and Kerry O’Brien “corrects the record” in Swan’s favour.

8:05pm – I’m getting somewhere in completing an interim electoral map, which I’ll try to post before I leave for the tally room or the party.

7:58pm – Antony mentioned Twitter on the air. Gotta be a first.

7:35pm – The Borg has failed to assimilate Queensland. What a shame.

7:31pm – This is looking pretty damn pathetic for the LNP. Seats like Whitsunday, Mirani and Barron River should have been pushovers, but they are holding up.

7:10pm – Antony Green – “It looks like Labor is back, and it may not even be close”. Andrew Fisher says it’s too early.

7:08pm – The ABC overall has the ALP on 52% two-party-preferred statewide.

7:04pm – The swing to the LNP is far below what they need to win overall. Then again, Brisbane is where you expect a big hit, and Aspley and Pumicestone are both “Greater Brisbane” seats.

7:01pm – ABC computer is predicting LNP gains in Aspley and Pumicestone.

6:48pm – Our scrutineer in Indooroopilly suggests that many ALP voters are preferencing LNP before Ronan Lee. Meanwhile Pauline Hanson is on 25% in Beaudesert, and Antony is making good sounds for the LNP candidate in Condamine (against former LNP MP Stuart Copeland).

6:28pm – Small sample from Indooroopilly: LNP 80 votes, ALP 50 votes, Ronan Lee 50 votes, with little preference flows between Lee and Warner.

6:24pm – With practically no votes cast, ABC elections has the ALP suffering a 13% swing.

6pm – I’m going to be liveblogging tonight in a variety of ways. I’ll be joining in with Pineapple Party Time’s liveblog, along with Possum, William Bowe, Mark Bahnsich of Larvatus Prodeo, Bernard Keane and Graham Young of Online Opinion. I’ll also be posting updates to this post, as well as on my twitter feed.

I spent the day in Kelvin Grove handing out for Greens candidates Larissa Waters (Mt Coot-tha) and Anne Boccabella (Brisbane Central).

I’ll tell some more stories tomorrow when I have more time, but I wanted to share one experience: the LNP’s very own brand of bottled water! The water was being consumed by LNP booth workers and I managed to recover two of them for my archives.

The text next to the Borg’s face says:

THE LNP DOES NOT SUPPORT PLACING RECYCLED WASTE WATER INTO OUR DRINKING SUPPLIES.

DON’T TRUST LABOR

Isn’t that fantastic.

I’m about to start handing out for the Greens at Kelvin Grove, on the border of Mount Coot-tha and Brisbane Central, but I’ve heard some information from friends handing out in Indooroopilly.

Earlier today I posted on my twitter feed a picture of a “just vote 1″ sign in Indooroopilly, which is also here in Brisbane Central. I assume that the LNP is responsible for these corflutes.

"Just vote 1" poster found in Indooroopilly

Also, at Ironside in Indooroopilly, there is at least one person handing out a leaflet saying the following:

Ronan Let Us Down

Don’t Vote for Ronan the Turncoat

Don’t Even Give Him a Preference

Just Vote 1

Authorised by K. Butchert, 21 Campbell St, Toowong QLD 4066

While the word ‘turncoat’ would suggest a Labor person, you would think that Labor wouldn’t do this, considering that they are preferencing Ronan. And you’d be right. My friend, as well as having a copy of the leaflet, has also got photos of the person handing them out talking to Senator George Brandis of the Liberal Party, calling this man “Phil”. We’ll post the photos when they come to hand.

Meanwhile the numbers of polling booth workers for the Greens and the LNP respectively in Indooroopilly suggest it will be extremely difficult for Lee to retain the seat tonight.

Today’s Courier Mail carries the final poll of the campaign, with the Galaxy poll holding steady, giving a two-party-preferred vote of 51% for the LNP and 49% for the ALP.

While the LNP’s primary vote stays steady on 43%, while the ALP goes from 42% to 40%, with the 2% swing going to the Greens  and Others.

The most interesting point is that only 52% believe the ALP will win, down from 64% in the last poll. It suggests that, while the ALP has been successful in confronting the voters with the reality of Springborg actually winning the election, it hasn’t actually resulted in a swing back to the ALP.

I just went a walk through the CBD and picked up a copy of xX, the free News Limited afternoon newspaper distributed in the CBD and at train stations in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne.

As well as a smaller ad on the front page saying “Do you really want this man running Queensland?” mX featured the following full-page ad covering the back page:

I spent last night attending a candidates’ forum in western Brisbane electorate of Moggill. An unusual choice, certainly, considering it is the only notional LNP seat in the entire Brisbane area, but that’s where I ended up.

On a map, Moggill appears as the largest Brisbane seat by far, however this includes large swathes of land with little or no residents, meaning that most of the voters live in the southeastern corner of the electorate, close to Indooroopilly.

The seat is held by Dr Bruce Flegg, who was first elected in 2004 and led a generally disastrous campaign for the Liberals at the 2006 election as Liberal leader. Dr Flegg has raised the ire of many local Liberals, but was protected from a preselection challenge by the LNP merger, which guaranteed the preselections of all sitting LNP MPs.

The crowd last night may have been dominated by local environmentalists, but it appeared to me that both local environmental groups and many local Liberals are now seriously offside from Flegg, and a serious campaign could knock him off.

But that’s not gonna happen this time. The ALP candidate appears to have given up, unsurprising considering their fears for supposedly-safe Brisbane seats, and he didn’t turn up last night. The Greens are focusing energy on the seat, but nowhere near enough to present themselves as the clear alternative to Flegg. And the independent Barry Searle, despite the appearance of an attack leaflet from Liberals criticising his position on roads, is unlikely to make much of an impact.

(Left to right) independent Barry Searle, Liberal Bruce Flegg, DS4SEQ candidate Andrew Bradbury and The Greens' Philip Machanick

While this seat won’t be going anywhere on Saturday, it’s one worth watching in future elections if the Greens can manage to strengthen in inner Brisbane.

In a move right out of the Labor “how to win an election” textbook (just like most of the Bligh campaign), the Australian today features a story by Peter van Onselen reporting on leaked Labor polling showing large swings to the LNP that could topple the government:

Labor strategists are rushing campaign workers into the electorates under threat, even flying operatives in from interstate, in a last-minute attempt to turn around local fortunes.

Labor’s track polling was continuing last night. It is understood the internal polling shows a collapse in Greens preferences flowing Labor’s way as voters indicate their intention to take advantage of Queensland’s system of optional preferential voting by placing a “1″ next to the Green candidate without preferencing down the line.

Such a protest vote – the internal polling reveals the Green vote is more than 8 per cent – would hurt Labor candidates who rely on a steady flow of Greens preferences.

This is much in line with my predictions, but you have to always take these things with a grain of salt. I remember that in the 2005 Werriwa by-election a story leaked that the ALP was worried that, ala Cunningham, the seat would fall to the Greens. I polled 5.5%.

In other news, I’ve been hearing rumours of a possible LNP upset win in the heartland Labor seat of Brisbane Central, which could be borne out if the Greens vote holds up and, as reported above, the preferences largely exhaust. You heard it here first.

For my South-East Queensland predictions, check out last night’s post.

Central Queensland

I predict that the ALP will lose three seats to the LNP: Hervey Bay, Keppel and Mirani. This would happen on about 8% swing across the region, with the remaining Labor seats in Mackay and Rockhampton much safer.

Central Queensland region

North Queensland

In northern Queensland, I predict that Barron River, Burdekin and Whitsunday would likely fall. I’m predicting this based on a 7% swing.

Electorates around Cairns and Townsville

Western Queensland

I’m predicting that the only western Queensland ALP seat, Mount Isa, will fall.

Unlike Pauline Hanson, there’s one independent candidate taking their clothes off, one “Honest” Dave Zwolenski in Mount Coot-tha: