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Still marvelling at the fact the LNP ran an anti-abortion religious activist in this seat at the last election – probably on of the least (socially) conservative seats in Queensland.
Probably just shows how seriously they’re taking their attrition in the western suburbs of Brisbane.
This area cost the LNP Ryan federally. If the Greens lose this, they can write off Ryan in 2025.
The greens calling for age of criminal responsibility to be raised and less punishment for youth offenders will backfire and hurt them. Nobody wants these thugs roaming the streets and any party that calls for government to be more lenient with them will take a beating at the polls.
Daniel, I see youth crime as more complex than just punishing those who commit crimes. Many youths may have troubled or abusive parents and the best way of breaking the cycle of crime is to implement programs to divert them into education/training. Agree they still need to be placed into detention, but it should be for a short duration (few months maybe) and then move them into special care.
Daniel T, do you think it’s possible you’re assuming that your own personal views are held by the electorate at large? If so, is that really the case in Maiwar? Not all electorates have the same values. Perhaps other areas are susceptible to a scare campaign on youth crime, and many of their constituents will be baying for as harsh a punishment as possible, but I doubt those places vote Greens anyway. By contrast, Maiwar contains a lot of young people who don’t enjoy being stereotyped, and a lot of educated people who know that effectively dealing with crime is not always as simple as right-wing populists claim it is.
On current polling projecting a 9% 2PP swing to the LNP (compared to 2020), I think this seat is dicey for the Greens with only a 6.3% margin vs LNP. I think Berkman will suffer a cut in his margin with a state-wide swing to the right, the question is by how much. However, his primary will probably improve, partially benefiting from a decline in Labor’s vote, but so will the LNP’s primary.
The swing to the LNP will probably be less in the inner-city than in outer suburban and regional areas, so that may save Berkman, and it will depend on what kind of candidate the LNP preselect (i.e. “moderate” or “conservative”). Using Cook Political Report ratings from the US, I’d currently say this seat is “lean Green”, but any further deterioration in Labor’s polling and I think this becomes “toss-up”.
The Labor primary was already only 18.5% here at the last election. Assuming literally no increase in the Greens primary vote, the Labor primary would have to fall below 10% for the LNP to win. That is not realistic, even if such a swing did happen a decent chunk of it would end up with the Greens or a micro-party.
The only way this seat becomes competitive is if the lnp take votes off the greens, but that is unlikely as the greens rarely suffer a loss of primary vote once they have an incumbent mp.
The only exception was perhaps the state seat of Melbourne where ellen sandell did see a small primary vote swing against her.
@Yoh An unless the Greens vote remains static but Labor’s vote drops heavily and goes to the LNP. But I doubt that would happen. And as @Daniel T pointed out, if the Greens lose Maiwar they’ll lose Ryan. This is the Greens-voting part of Ryan.
@GPPS. The poll shows a state wide 2PP swing to LNP against Labor. The poll shows a primary vote swing of 3% to LNP and 2% to the Greens.
I wouldn’t extrapolate but if that happens, the Greens will hold Maiwar. If the Greens and LNP are neck and neck then the Greens will hold, as most Labor preferences will flow to the Greens.
Predictions:
Greens: 43.2% (+1.8%)
LNP: 40.1% (+2.9%)
Labor: 11.9% (–6.7%)
TCP:
Greens: 54.2% (–2.1%)
LNP: 45.8% (+2.1%)
The swing against the Greens is due to the swing against Labor. I’ve only got the predictions for three candidates because they’re the only ones that will do well. Usually I leave out some candidates intentionally so the percentage doesn’t add up to 100% because some random independent or minor party might have an unknown effect, so usually I would only do predictions for the LNP, Labor, the Greens, One Nation and (in North Queensland) KAP.