Calwell – Australia 2022

I’d say that Labor seats with margins of over 20% are a thing of the past, following the 2022 Federal/Victorian elections. Labor struggles to get over 50% in primaries with votes split in all directions – to the Greens, Vic Socialists, UAP/One Nation and socially conservatives like Family First.

I don’t see the Liberals becoming a threat in 2025 in Calwell or Scullin or other safe Labor seats. Labor copped a beating in 2022 as part of the post-pandemic backlash and the leakage of votes to anti-establishment parties. This is shown in the strength of the UAP and One Nation voter base. I think that the pandemic-fuelled anger will subside and be replaced by anger over government services and the cost of living, especially with high inflation and interest rates.

Vic Socialists is interesting. At the state election, Vic Socialists did quite well in working class, economically deprived electorates like Broadmeadows, St Albans, Kororoit. They came third in a number of seats last state election. They can tap into multicultural, working-class electorates in a way that no left-of-Labor party could. Their pro-Palestine stance as well as their stance on socialism may help attract disaffected Labor voters.

Support for the VicSocialists in other suburbs may be explained by many migrants coming from countries where the major left party has Socialists in its name.

I say the Palestine issue in the Muslim Community would ensure the Labor would definitely benefit in the TPP as the LNP is much more staunchly pro-Israel and anti-Palestine

Labor wouldn’t be too fussed in 2025as there are preference flows from Vic Socialists and Greens to Labor and at the worst, the 2PP margins will dip to 10% to 15% from 20-something %. This means the seat is still safe. This was part of a wider phenomena in 2022 when Labor won most seats nationwide whilst their primary vote dropped to a historic low thanks to swings away from Labor in Labor heartland, now-Teal seats and some LNP seats.

Regarding the Palestine issue, it won’t hit Labor at the 2PP level. @Marh, I agree with your point. Many voters in Calwell and similar electorates in Melbourne and Sydney flocked to parties like UAP and One Nation for their anti-establishment and anti-lockdown stance in 2022. Muslim voters may be reluctant to vote for One Nation in 2025 since One Nation is staunchly pro-Israel and also because Islamophobia is on the rise and they’re reminded of old wounds.

Its possible a well resourced independent could run here as there seems to be a lot of dislike towards the ALP but not enough to vote for the LNP but enough for someone in the middle.

Interestingly Victorian Socialists also did quite well in the economically deprived ethnically diverse suburbs of Springvale, Noble Park in the Mulgrave by-election so as Votante correctly stated this is quite unique for a left-wing minor party. They tend to be the most pro-Palestine of all the parties. With regards to right wing minor parties the issue is that the UAP does not have a clear base and tend to talk about something different each election so i dont think this vote will hold up. ONP may have done well in 2022 due to anti-lockdown stance but they are usually non-existent in CALD areas. I think Family First is different they actually do ok in CALD areas they are especially strong in the Narre Warrens and Cranbourne at a state level as well as Mill Park. However, they did not contest in 2018 so it is hard to compare if their vote is actually growing or not. In Mill Park for example they got 6.2% in 2014 but 5% in 2022, Broadmeadoes 6.6% in 2014 and 4.6% in 2022. I think Family First/religious parties have a clearer base than UAP. Family First did not contest the 2019 and 2022 federal elections so i am not sure what the trejectory of this vote is. Islamphobia is rising again so Muslim voters are unlikely to vote Liberal, ONP etc new words such as Islamo-left have been coined and the controversy of granting temporary visas to Palestinians will not help the Libs in Calwell so loss of votes to Victorian Socialists or Greens will likely strongly flow back in TPP to Labor.

The Liberals have preselected a candidate for Calwell already. That’s according to Kos Samaras. If it’s true, I’d be very surprised by how they’d preselect for a safe Labor seat a year and a bit ahead of schedule. They might have some Trumpian strategy of winning over traditionally Labor-voting, working-class voters.

Whilst a huge number of voters switched to the UAP and ONP in 2022, it was most likely a one-time boost given their anti-lockdown and anti-establishment nature. This will subside by 2025. Their voters might not necessarily switch to the Liberals.

@votante the libs are preselecting candidate ahead of the election in anticipation that albo might call an early election in August. They want to avoid the debacle in 2022 where they had to scramble to select candidates at the last minute. Obviously the exception to this would be the new division in WA where they won’t know where it is until after. Also 2 candidates possibly more one in Vic and one in NSW won’t be running since those division won’t exist anymore depending on how the reditribution falls and what divisions are abolished/creates

With the WA determination set for 24 September 2024, the NSW determination set for 10 October 2024 and the VIC determination set for 17 October 2024, I think the chances of going in August are very slim, particularly as all the tentative new boundaries will be out by then. There are also a lot of other elections happening in this broad time period.

Antony Green has an article on his blog concluding that the election is more than likely to fall at the end of the permitted period, ie. May 2025. – https://antonygreen.com.au/when-will-the-next-federal-election-be-will-it-be-held-early/

I think Maria will retire, she has served over 20 years and she is aging, but I think she is waiting for the redistribution to finally make a decision and any drastic changes will make it almost certain for her to pass the torch to a younger generation.

I don’t think the Labor MP’s in these very safe diverse seats have much of a personal vote, don’t see there being much of a shift either way and any correction from the anti-lockdown anti-Dan factors should be corrected next time regardless of who runs for Labor.

@John
There is also a chance of a new NSW seat in Western Sydney if a seat is abolished in both inner and northern sydney. My submission/comment creates one in Blacktown after removing Nsyd and Grayndler.
Abolishing 2 and creating 1 seat (not counting renamings) last happened in 1992 when Phillip in Coogee and Dundas in Carlingford-Epping was abolished in favour of Paterson.

@leon I did mention that. I have created 2 and abolished 3. And yes it is widely agreed here and more generally that one will be abolished in both given the growth in western sydney

There won’t be an early election. The second half of 2024 will be full of elections and Labor is on the defensive in ACT, NT and QLD. Also, there’s the issue of ongoing federal redistributions.

Maria V. has done pretty well within the party room to be a backbencher for over 20 years in a safe seat with no serious factional rivals.

@votante never say never Albo will hold the election whenever it is politically advantageous to him

@votante a reliable source just told me Labor are fundraising for 2 elections in Queensland in Oct. They want to go early and it would Probably the 12th

Has a Federal election ever been held in the same month as a state election?

@Adam

Most recent was 1996, where a Federal election was held on March 2nd, and a Victorian state election on the 30th. The next most recent is 1937, with a Victorian state election on October 2nd and a Federal election on the 23rd. Finally, in 1910, a South Australian state election was held on April 2nd and a Federal election on April 13th.

In 1983 the WA election and Federal election were two weeks apart. The ALP won both from Liberal governments. Methinks voters would not be happy going to the polls so soon. Messaging would be a nightmare.

19 February and 5 March

Adam
Yes as Douglas mentioned, in March 1996, in VIC.
With 79 local council elections also thrown in.

Albo may want to drag the term as long as possible and call it for May 2025. He may squeeze one in for late 2024 or even in Feb/Mar 2025, just a few weeks apart from the WA election.

I think one thing that is missed is cost of living. Inflation and interest rates will stabilise and perhaps even fall in late 2024 and the stage 3 tax cuts, which has bipartisan support, will kick in. Inflation and interest rates are a thorn in the side for Labor and I’m they want those problems to subside a bit before calling an election.

Agree Votante, Labor would want an economic narrative come the next election. The Government needs to be bring inflation under control without causing a recession. If they are able to do that then they can focus on bread and butter issues. I do believe that for most voters economic issues are more of interest than social issues like Bill Ciinton used to say “Its the economy stupid.”

As long as Labor continue on their zealot style approach to clean energy targets cost of living won’t ease, interest rates may subside after they curb inflation but the cost of living won’t stop on ordinary families

Interest results from the recent UK Local elections in areas with large Muslim communities and the implications for seats such as Calwell. There was a swing away from British Labour in areas with high concentrations of Muslims and it went to either the UK Greens or independents. Brtitish Muslims are overwhelmingly South Asian rather than Arab and a higher % of them are 2nd and 3rd generation compared to Australia. In a seat such as Calwell where the Greens cannot win the danger to Labor is if a Dai Le style Pro-Palestine independent emerges but that requires the Libs to run dead and give preferences.

@Nimalan Dai Le herself isn’t necessarily pro-Palestine or pro-Israel, I think she’s mostly neutral.

@ Nether Portal
Dai Le did actually call for a ceasefire before Labor did. Having said that she is otherwise more neutral. When i meant Dai Le Style independent i meant a local independent from Calwell (more centrist) who may campaign on Palestine as well as opposed to Muslims voting for Greens/Socialusts instead.

@Nimalan I see. Yeah an ethnic independent who is perhaps more socially conservative but economically progressive as well as pro-Palestinian could potentially do well in some Labor seats with high ethnic populations (namely seats like Calwell and Wills in Melbourne and Blaxland, Chifley and Watson in Sydney).

@ Nether Portal
I am wondering if you think the Libs will preference such an ethnic indpendent candidate will get Liberal preferences over Labor. It maybe controversial as nearly all parts of the Liberal party are pro-Israel.

Highly unlikely the Libs will preference such a candidate, the Libs’ strong pro-Israel stance is the only thing uniting the party especially the state Libs. It would cause a massive internal revolt even though doing so benefits the Libs in the long run by forcing Labor to divert resources like how the Libs are forced to divert resources to fight the teals.

@Nimalan as @Dan M said, I don’t think the Liberals would preference such a candidate ahead of Labor. Ahead of the Greens and Socialists? Yes. Ahead of Labor? No. The Liberals are more pro-Israel than Labor and the party has a base among Jewish people.

I think the Liberals would preference Dai Le and her party’s candidates, but not a pro-Palestinian candidate. Potentially some of the anti-lockdown ethnic voters who voted One Nation or UAP in 2022 would support such a candidate, as would some more centrist Labor voters (traditional-style working-class Labor voters with an ethnic background, especially if they are Muslim), but I don’t see many Liberal voters going to such a candidate. The Liberals are building a base among ethnic communities, but the base among Arab Australians (except Lebanese Christians) is still relatively weak in areas with high concentrations of Arabs (e.g Bankstown in Sydney).

It’s worth noting though preferences aren’t always who would be preferred in government, often additional preferences are given to parties who would most likely support that party in the event of a minority government (exceptions are made for extreme candidates such as when racist Fraser Anning candidates ran in 2019, and exceptions are also made by voters (but not the party) when a government is seen as exceptionally good such as 2021 in WA). Some voters however put the major parties first and second because, as Barnaby Joyce explained when speaking of this, “[people] just want a government”.

Dan M/NP
Yeah Fair points. I also agree that Libs Pro-Israel stance unites all parts of the Liberal party including the moderates and the right wing of the party. The only time i think you can see Moira Deeming and Pesutto standing next to each other is if they are attending a Pro-Israel rally. I also think Sky news hosts such as Rita Panahi, Rowan Dean would be furious about Libs helping to elect more Pro-Palestinian candidates. In such a case with the exception of Wills it seems that the Labor is not really in danger of losing other seats with large Muslim population.

@Nimalan the Greens might preference a pro-Palestine independent though which might do something (because the Greens are delusional and don’t realise that such an independent might be socialist but also socially conservative whereas the Greens are very progressive; I think it’s actually odd that the radical left heavily supports Palestine given that Hamas kills LGBT people but then they support LGBT rights in the West; I have a gay cousin and a few gay/lesbian friends and they’ve all experienced homophobia overseas and they try to avoid certain countries).

Nether Portal,
The LGBT community/leftists caring about other people’s lives is not usually conditional on said people’s support for gay rights. I reckon most of us queer people think killing is a bad thing, even if it’s killing someone homophobic. Of course you will always get cookers who think Hamas are freedom fighters that did nothing wrong, but they’re in the minority.

As for the Greens, they’ll definitely preference any Le-esque conservative socialist pro-Palestine community independent. (what a mouthful!) That’s probably more from a desire to stick it to Labor than because they actually agree with the independent’s views.

@Inari28 I agree, plus the Greens often preference teals over Labor even though they would agree more with Labor because teals are typically more pro-climate and socially progressive than Labor.

@ Nether Portal
That is an interesting point like @Inari28 said that such a community independent maybe socially conservative on LGBT issues but not on things like Australia Day, China etc. Pro-Palestine activists protested against Australia Day and that infuriated many on the right. There is also groups such as Queers for Palestine that get attacked by Rita Panahi on “Lefties loosing it.” I think in seats such as Calwell, Blaxland, Chifley, Watson the Libs will get between 20-25% of the primary vote so it relies on Greens to preference such a candidate if Libs preference Labor ahead of such a candidate then even with Green preferences i dont see how that candidate can beat Labor

With this seat I just don’t see how Greens or Liberals could ever get to it. Last time the big swing came from mostly votes to the alt-right in UAP and ON which flowed to Liberals on preferences. Given that lockdowns are all but a distant memory now next election there should be a correction swing back in here, Scullin, Gorton, Hawke and McEwen and should theoretically consolidate these seats for Labor. But then given there’s also a redistribution happening anything could happen.

A Dai Le-style independent could serve well if Labor makes the same mistake they did with KK in Fowler. But given that Maria Vamvakinou and co have been there for a long time and are popular with constituents (a recent survey showed that a lot of people of Middle Eastern background are turning away from Labor but would still vote them because of Vamvakinou) so I doubt they’ll make much ground unless something implodes.

@ Tommo9
I dont think the Greens or Libs can win this seat either so i am with you on this. However, the reason i often mention this seat is that the right flank/sky news etc often argue these areas are the future see article below where Calwell was specifically mentioned. I believe the shift to alt-right last time was a reaction not to a once in a century pandemic. However, some people believe this provides an opening to the Libs and Pesutto has been spending a lot of time in the state electorate of Greenvale. Provided that the Libs do not preference a Pro-Palestine independent then i dont see Labor under threat in fact it could actually help Labor in the 2CP as if some muslims who voted for UAP last time because of lockdowns now dont care about that and vote for the Victorian Socialists instead this will flow strongly in preferences to Labor

https://ipa.org.au/ipa-today/the-liberals-need-to-embrace-their-working-class-voters-to-win-over-the-outer-suburban-freedom-fighters

Why does everyone think the swing here will all go away that covid/lockdowns are over? Where is the evidence the vote is just magically going to comeback post covid? The swing in Victoria was big in 2022 in outer suburbs, but that was largely because the swing in these areas was much smaller than similar areas in NSW/QLD in 2019. If you compare outer-suburbs (in particular with poor/multicultural areas) from 2016, the NSW/VIC seats end up with pretty similar swings against Labor since 2016.

Swings against Labor since 2016
Fowler -11.77%
Gorton -8.17%
Calwell -8.1%
Chifley -5.71%
Blaxland -4.54%
Fraser -4.48%
Hawke -4.33%
Spence -4.27%
Holt -3.61%
Parramatta -3.07%

Maybe those areas will come back, but who knows maybe they’ll swing even further. I don’t think many people would have thought Labor’s path to victory after 2016 would include Higgins, Tangney, Bennelong and not Page/Lindsay/Bass/Braddon/only 5 QLD seats.

@ Drake
I would not use Fowler in your analysis as Dai Le included a HTV which preferenced Labor last in a seat with low levels of education and English where people actually need a HTV in order to cast a formal vote. If Dai Le had preferences Labor ahead of the Libs then there maybe no notional swing against Labor or much less. I would add Watson and Scullin to your list. If you average the NSW seats then the swing against Labor since 2016 for the average of Blaxland, Chifley and Parrramatta is 4.44%. Maybe it may not comeback entirely but i would expect some of it would like most people expect there to be a correction in WA. If we use the same arguement then we have to say that WA post Covid is now a left-leaning state compared to Australia as a while. Also outside WA in 2022 the seats that had the biggest swings against the Libs were small l liberal seats (including Higgins, Boothby and the 3 Brisbane seats) and the Chinese community seats such as Bennelong. Tangney was a combination of all 3. The only exception was Roberston which is a a traditional bellwether.

I tend to agree with Nimalan again here that while there does appear to be a long term gradual trend away from Labor in these sorts of areas areas, the 2022 elections (both state & federal) artificially accelerated that in Victoria largely due to an anti-Andrews / lockdown sentiment that was exploited by the populist minors.

I don’t think all of that vote will come back, but some of it should, because those minor parties won’t have the same traction this time. I feel like the gradual outer suburban trend away from Labor will continue, but probably resume from where it would have been without the lockdown factor, which will probably result in a small swing towards Labor compared to 2022 but away from Labor compared to 2019, somewhere in the middle of the two.

@Drake as Nimalan as correctly pointed out before in analyses, Robertson was the only traditional bellwether that changed hands. Labor has held Dobell, Eden-Monaro, etc since 2016, while the Liberals retained Bass and Braddon in 2022 and the LNP retained Bonner, Leichhardt, Longman and Petrie. Page is no longer a bellwether seat: Grafton is now more conservative than Coffs Harbour and almost as conservative as Port Macquarie (though traditionally Page is split between Grafton and Lismore, with Grafton and the rural towns such as Maclean mostly voting for the Nationals and Lismore mostly voting Labor due to Greens preferences as Lismore has a hippie community). Herbert isn’t a bellwether seat as it has flipped randomly before (Labor narrowly won it in 2016 due to a preference leakage, to me that was just a fluke, but in 2019 the LNP easily regained it; in 2007, Labor didn’t win Herbert despite winning several other seats in Queensland from Kevin Rudd’s home state advantage).

Nimalan also pointed out that Fowler has a higher culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) community. Dai Le, a former Liberal member, preferenced the Liberals ahead of Labor. However, I will point out that Labor is indeed seeing a genuine swing against it here but not enough for the Liberals to win; at the 2023 state election, the TPP swing against Labor in Fairfield was over 7%, while in Liverpool it was over 9.0%. Liverpool could potentially be a target seat in the future as they already hold Holsworthy albeit marginally and the margin is now only 8.3% (Labor’s worst ever performance in the seat of Liverpool). However, I do agree that if Dai Le preferenced Labor over Liberal or didn’t give any additional preferences at all (she wouldn’t have ever done this because that would lead to a very high rate of informal voting), then the swing would’ve been less, despite the Liberals preselecting local Vietnamese woman Courtney Nguyen.