Calwell – Australia 2022

I’d say that Labor seats with margins of over 20% are a thing of the past, following the 2022 Federal/Victorian elections. Labor struggles to get over 50% in primaries with votes split in all directions – to the Greens, Vic Socialists, UAP/One Nation and socially conservatives like Family First.

I don’t see the Liberals becoming a threat in 2025 in Calwell or Scullin or other safe Labor seats. Labor copped a beating in 2022 as part of the post-pandemic backlash and the leakage of votes to anti-establishment parties. This is shown in the strength of the UAP and One Nation voter base. I think that the pandemic-fuelled anger will subside and be replaced by anger over government services and the cost of living, especially with high inflation and interest rates.

Vic Socialists is interesting. At the state election, Vic Socialists did quite well in working class, economically deprived electorates like Broadmeadows, St Albans, Kororoit. They came third in a number of seats last state election. They can tap into multicultural, working-class electorates in a way that no left-of-Labor party could. Their pro-Palestine stance as well as their stance on socialism may help attract disaffected Labor voters.

Support for the VicSocialists in other suburbs may be explained by many migrants coming from countries where the major left party has Socialists in its name.

I say the Palestine issue in the Muslim Community would ensure the Labor would definitely benefit in the TPP as the LNP is much more staunchly pro-Israel and anti-Palestine

Labor wouldn’t be too fussed in 2025as there are preference flows from Vic Socialists and Greens to Labor and at the worst, the 2PP margins will dip to 10% to 15% from 20-something %. This means the seat is still safe. This was part of a wider phenomena in 2022 when Labor won most seats nationwide whilst their primary vote dropped to a historic low thanks to swings away from Labor in Labor heartland, now-Teal seats and some LNP seats.

Regarding the Palestine issue, it won’t hit Labor at the 2PP level. @Marh, I agree with your point. Many voters in Calwell and similar electorates in Melbourne and Sydney flocked to parties like UAP and One Nation for their anti-establishment and anti-lockdown stance in 2022. Muslim voters may be reluctant to vote for One Nation in 2025 since One Nation is staunchly pro-Israel and also because Islamophobia is on the rise and they’re reminded of old wounds.

Its possible a well resourced independent could run here as there seems to be a lot of dislike towards the ALP but not enough to vote for the LNP but enough for someone in the middle.

Interestingly Victorian Socialists also did quite well in the economically deprived ethnically diverse suburbs of Springvale, Noble Park in the Mulgrave by-election so as Votante correctly stated this is quite unique for a left-wing minor party. They tend to be the most pro-Palestine of all the parties. With regards to right wing minor parties the issue is that the UAP does not have a clear base and tend to talk about something different each election so i dont think this vote will hold up. ONP may have done well in 2022 due to anti-lockdown stance but they are usually non-existent in CALD areas. I think Family First is different they actually do ok in CALD areas they are especially strong in the Narre Warrens and Cranbourne at a state level as well as Mill Park. However, they did not contest in 2018 so it is hard to compare if their vote is actually growing or not. In Mill Park for example they got 6.2% in 2014 but 5% in 2022, Broadmeadoes 6.6% in 2014 and 4.6% in 2022. I think Family First/religious parties have a clearer base than UAP. Family First did not contest the 2019 and 2022 federal elections so i am not sure what the trejectory of this vote is. Islamphobia is rising again so Muslim voters are unlikely to vote Liberal, ONP etc new words such as Islamo-left have been coined and the controversy of granting temporary visas to Palestinians will not help the Libs in Calwell so loss of votes to Victorian Socialists or Greens will likely strongly flow back in TPP to Labor.

The Liberals have preselected a candidate for Calwell already. That’s according to Kos Samaras. If it’s true, I’d be very surprised by how they’d preselect for a safe Labor seat a year and a bit ahead of schedule. They might have some Trumpian strategy of winning over traditionally Labor-voting, working-class voters.

Whilst a huge number of voters switched to the UAP and ONP in 2022, it was most likely a one-time boost given their anti-lockdown and anti-establishment nature. This will subside by 2025. Their voters might not necessarily switch to the Liberals.

@votante the libs are preselecting candidate ahead of the election in anticipation that albo might call an early election in August. They want to avoid the debacle in 2022 where they had to scramble to select candidates at the last minute. Obviously the exception to this would be the new division in WA where they won’t know where it is until after. Also 2 candidates possibly more one in Vic and one in NSW won’t be running since those division won’t exist anymore depending on how the reditribution falls and what divisions are abolished/creates

With the WA determination set for 24 September 2024, the NSW determination set for 10 October 2024 and the VIC determination set for 17 October 2024, I think the chances of going in August are very slim, particularly as all the tentative new boundaries will be out by then. There are also a lot of other elections happening in this broad time period.

Antony Green has an article on his blog concluding that the election is more than likely to fall at the end of the permitted period, ie. May 2025. – https://antonygreen.com.au/when-will-the-next-federal-election-be-will-it-be-held-early/

I think Maria will retire, she has served over 20 years and she is aging, but I think she is waiting for the redistribution to finally make a decision and any drastic changes will make it almost certain for her to pass the torch to a younger generation.

I don’t think the Labor MP’s in these very safe diverse seats have much of a personal vote, don’t see there being much of a shift either way and any correction from the anti-lockdown anti-Dan factors should be corrected next time regardless of who runs for Labor.

@John
There is also a chance of a new NSW seat in Western Sydney if a seat is abolished in both inner and northern sydney. My submission/comment creates one in Blacktown after removing Nsyd and Grayndler.
Abolishing 2 and creating 1 seat (not counting renamings) last happened in 1992 when Phillip in Coogee and Dundas in Carlingford-Epping was abolished in favour of Paterson.

@leon I did mention that. I have created 2 and abolished 3. And yes it is widely agreed here and more generally that one will be abolished in both given the growth in western sydney

There won’t be an early election. The second half of 2024 will be full of elections and Labor is on the defensive in ACT, NT and QLD. Also, there’s the issue of ongoing federal redistributions.

Maria V. has done pretty well within the party room to be a backbencher for over 20 years in a safe seat with no serious factional rivals.

@votante never say never Albo will hold the election whenever it is politically advantageous to him

@votante a reliable source just told me Labor are fundraising for 2 elections in Queensland in Oct. They want to go early and it would Probably the 12th

Has a Federal election ever been held in the same month as a state election?

@Adam

Most recent was 1996, where a Federal election was held on March 2nd, and a Victorian state election on the 30th. The next most recent is 1937, with a Victorian state election on October 2nd and a Federal election on the 23rd. Finally, in 1910, a South Australian state election was held on April 2nd and a Federal election on April 13th.

In 1983 the WA election and Federal election were two weeks apart. The ALP won both from Liberal governments. Methinks voters would not be happy going to the polls so soon. Messaging would be a nightmare.

19 February and 5 March

Adam
Yes as Douglas mentioned, in March 1996, in VIC.
With 79 local council elections also thrown in.

Albo may want to drag the term as long as possible and call it for May 2025. He may squeeze one in for late 2024 or even in Feb/Mar 2025, just a few weeks apart from the WA election.

I think one thing that is missed is cost of living. Inflation and interest rates will stabilise and perhaps even fall in late 2024 and the stage 3 tax cuts, which has bipartisan support, will kick in. Inflation and interest rates are a thorn in the side for Labor and I’m they want those problems to subside a bit before calling an election.

Agree Votante, Labor would want an economic narrative come the next election. The Government needs to be bring inflation under control without causing a recession. If they are able to do that then they can focus on bread and butter issues. I do believe that for most voters economic issues are more of interest than social issues like Bill Ciinton used to say “Its the economy stupid.”

As long as Labor continue on their zealot style approach to clean energy targets cost of living won’t ease, interest rates may subside after they curb inflation but the cost of living won’t stop on ordinary families