Gladstone – Queensland 2024

The QLD GRN’s have recently made noise over the fact that Gladstone is home to their first regional office and the issues they plan to fight for Gladstone. Surprised they have chosen here but could see a concerted push at the state election. (Surprised = very low GRN vote and looking at the surrounding electorates, it’s an area that does not seem conducive to the Green vote. However, it is a seat with a very low LNP vote for a regional seat.)

LNP will likely get a big swing to them here, though I doubt they’ll be able to win the seat.

This is an area where Greens have traditionally struggled to get their deposit back. They want to convey to traditionally fossil fuel dependent regions that they care about the transition and renewable energy economy. Perhaps they think the old Red North can come back as the Green North and the anti politics vote can be contested against the far right.

In my opinion that ship has sailed. The far right has seized the anti politics initiative and the fact that PHON reliably voted with the LNP government matters less to the voter base than fighting against “political correctness” or “wokeness”. That includes the idea that the fossil fuel jobs that drive the local economy are “wrong”. Even if you say it’s not about workers and offer an economic vision beyond those jobs, it’s still awkward.

But the fact that the Greens have a Gladstone based senator may help with their pitch in Brisbane.

Gladstone is quite reliant on mining and resources and related activites such as smeltering and shipping. Traditionally, electorates with large ports are solidly Labor leaning. In smaller, inland areas, One Nation have easily beaten the LNP. Lately, there’s been a lot of public investment in Gladstone for the transition to renewable energy and green hydrogen.

There’s a federal Greens senator from Gladstone. It’s ironic since Gladstone is one of the world’s busiest coal export ports. We know that to become a senator, the statewide vote matters, not just your hometown’s.
The Greens opened an office here. I’m guessing it’s to boost their appeal in regional Queensland. Regional Queensland is probably the Greens’ worst performing area. They may also want to shake off criticism and the stigma that the Greens only stand for inner-city latte-sippers.

One Nation or a Liz Cunningham style independent is more likely to win here than the LNP. Labor isn’t being shutout of the regions.

Gladstone is still quite an outlier in comparison to the other regional seats that historically voted for Labor by stronger margins such as Rockhampton and Mackay.
It has generally always been the safest of those provincial city seats but it also hasn’t shifted towards the LNP at all so the disconnect is even greater now.
Don’t see the LNP getting a swing in line with the state average here next year, let alone an above average one.

Would agree somewhat Laine and Daniel, Gladstone is still quite strong for Labor. Even at the 2019 election which also saw Rockhampton and other provincial cities swing hard against Labor, the swing to the LNP and minor right-wing parties was more muted in Gladstone (the 2PP swing against Labor was only about 4-5%, about half that recorded in other locations).

I have a random prediction for this seat:

Primaries:
Labor: 41.4% (–23.0%)
LNP: 34.3% (+19.1%)
One Nation: 16.6% (+3.7%)
Greens: 7.7% (+4.2%)

TPP:
Labor: 53.3% (–20.2%)
LNP: 46.7% (+20.2%)

Basically it’s terrible for Labor but I think the nearby seat of Keppel will be worse and I think the LNP will be able to easily sandbag it. It may even become an LNP vs One Nation contest.

More seat predictions to come, but I say Labor retain this with a heavily decreased margin.

I thought this was the safest state Labor seat outside a capital city metropolitan area till I remembered there’s Wallsend, NSW.

Based on the last election results, the primary vote in Gladstone was higher than in Wallsend but the Labor’s 2PP was slightly lower.

@Votante the difference is though Wallsend doesn’t have a high One Nation vote whereas Gladstone does.

But nevertheless I would consider still Newcastle to be a metropolitan city.

One Nation doesn’t tend to do well outside Queensland as:
– The Home State effect
– Nationalism and Social Conservativism is more prominent in Queensland due to decentralisation and culture

@Marh a key component of One Nation’s voter base is those in the coal mining industry. The coal mining industry is mostly based in Central Queensland and in the Hunter Valley, hence why One Nation does best in Queensland. The Hunter Valley in New South Wales is the only place outside Queensland where One Nation consistently gets over 10% of the primary vote at elections.

Speaking of coal mining areas, how does One Nation perform in the Latrobe Valley?

@Ian One Nation got 12.48% of the vote at the Morwell Senior Citizens Centre polling place in 2022. At Morwell Kurnai College, they got 13.26% of the vote. On prepolls in Morwell, they got 10.03% of the vote. That’s just in Morwell though which is the main town in the Latrobe Valley region of Victoria.

Overall got 9.36% of the primary vote in the seat of Gippsland in 2022. Their preferences along with a steady Nationals vote allowed the Nationals to flip many country booths in the Latrobe Valley that voted Labor last time, namely the booths of Churchill, Churchill Central, Morwell, Morwell Estate and Yallourn North (these are the names used by the AEC).

In some of the Moe booths which are in Monash One Nation managed up to 18.5% of the vote – none of the booths in Moe and Newborough were under 10%. However as soon as you get out of the Valley, their vote drops sharply.

@Redistributed 18% is huge. The only place outside Queensland where that happens is around Cessnock, Muswellbrook and Singleton in the NSW Hunter Valley (in some booths there it gets up to 20%, double the electorate average in 2022).

Thanks NP and redistributed.

@Nether Portal, you’re right that Gladstone and Wallsend are different in that one is a coal mining dependent regional town and the other is a suburban electorate of a (small-ish) metropolitan area. In Wallsend in 2023, primaries were GRN 10.7% and ONP 6.8%. The Greens vote was a distant third and Wallsend is still a classical ALP vs LIB contest.

Gladstone is still very dependent on mining and minerals processing. Metro Newcastle’s economy has diversified more into the services economy and has its share of blue-collar workers given it’s near the Hunter.

Looking at the seat of Wallsend, I wonder if the margins are inflated because of Sonia Hornery as
– The federal Labor TPP is significantly lower than the State Results (evident from Feds Labor TPP around high 60s to low 70s and pretty much most States Labor TPP is mid 80s)
– Even the Labor TPP margin is mostly lower pre-2011 than the past two elections

I can’t see Labor suffering a 20% swing here. I can see it being around 10%. LNP primary won’t lift that much, it rarely does. More likely that PHON picks up the votes bled by Labor.

Easy retain for Butcher.