Griffith – Australia 2025

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22 COMMENTS

  1. @CG I think the results for the seats in the 1999 republic referendum will be pretty comparable to the voice referendum with the seats voting yes then being the ones to be the most likely to vote yes now with the obvious exceptions of the Northern Territory seats. Griffith narrowly voted no in the 1999 referendum but it was on different boundaries.

  2. I wrote in the Brisbane 2025 thread that on paper, Labor has a better chance of flipping Brisbane than any other Greens seat. I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor puts more resources into regaining Grififth because of the stalemate over Labor’s signature housing policy and Max Chandler-Mather is the Greens spokesman, like a thorn in their side. It’s also because Grififth was a Labor loss in 2022.

    The Labor vote has been weak for several elections and they haven’t won the primaries since 2010. LNP and Greens have been trending upwards.

    A path to victory for Labor is when LNP falls to third and either: Labor is substantially ahead or the gap between the Greens and Labor is small. Labor can’t rely on minor party preferences. Left-wing parties like Animal Justice favour the Greens over Labor, whilst right-wing parties like ON and UAP favour LNP over Labor.

  3. Votante your not wrong that Labor would be very keen to get rid of Chandler-Mather but I think it might be a fruitless task trying to unseat him. I don’t know of any incumbent Greens MPs who have lost their seat at an state or federal election (the exception I know of is Michael Organ who won at a by election only to loss in the general). Furthermore Chandler-Mather’s 2PP is around 10 points so any threat from the LNP is non-existent, plus a primary vote of 35% which was high then both Brisbane and Ryan, which could mean that depending on how preferences from the LNP flowed he could have won the seat even if Labor remained in second place (haven’t looked at the exact preferences though).

    More materially, Griffith has a high percentage of renters, university educated voters and younger voters, all characteristics of good environment for a Greens Candidate to get up. Chandler Mather was also the QLD Greens political director and effectively masterminded the 2022 “Greenslide” in QLD and ran the campaign of Councillor Jono Sri, so I would assume he is quite well tuned to the political situation if Labor sort to pose a threat to him. I live in the Electorate and his campaign here was quite extraordinary, his face was everywhere and you couldn’t go anywhere in the electorate without seeing his face on a yard sign. It might be harder to mobilise the same level of community support again as time goes on, but he did in effect pull off a landslide, so his position seems quite secure.

    As much as Labor would undoubtably love to get rid of him, I predict they will have a task on their hands to do it.

  4. @ Dan M
    Agree with your prediction and comparison to the Republic referendum. I am going to predict Maranoa will have the highest no vote and Melbourne the highest Yes vote. Agree Griffith in 1999 was much less progressive boundaries did not include West End etc. i feel on the current boundaries Griffith is more progressive than Ryan and will return a stronger Yes vote there is more densification, younger demographic especially in the years since 1999 compared to Ryan which in many places is more like Eltham/Warrandyte than Fitzroy, Carlton, Brunswick etc

  5. I think the “teal” electorates will have the highest Yes votes at the Voice referendum.

    I wonder if electorates with large uni student populations and socialist/Green voting populations will end up having a higher No vote than what you’d expect. These groups are probably more sympathetic to the Blak Sovereign and ‘Voice before Treaty’ movement led by Lidia Thorpe, the Aboriginal Tent Embassy and other activists.

  6. @Votante TBH I reckon that teal seats will vote No. I would expect the seat of Melbourne to vote Yes, however, as I would Griffith.

    As you would know, Lidia Thorpe is very fringe socialist so IDK what the TikTok woke Green anti-patriotic lefties think about her. Honestly she is the worst politician in any Australian Parliament and that says something given that the Senate alone has eleven Greens and three cookers (One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts and the UAP’s Ralph Babet).

  7. @ Votante/NP

    I was leaning towards the Green/Socialist seats which have a lot of uni students and economically left-wing, while i am not sure if the Teal seats will vote No my personal view is that it will be lower than the former category. The Teal seats still contain a a lot of people who i would describe as “traditionalist” those who will may not be socially conservative are still quite Anglophile many still like the flag, Australia day, some may describe themselves as Christian in a cultural rather than religious sense, more nuclear families, a lot went to Private Schools that have a very British ethos and so may be skeptical of constitutional change unless it is minimal. There will also be a significant difference is support for AUKUS between Kew, Canterbury, Mosman versus West End, Fitzroy, Newtown.

  8. Brisbane and Griffith have young-ish populations and high Greens votes.
    Support correlates with age and Greens voters are more likely than Labor voters to vote Yes.

    On the eastern seaboard, I would say Wentworth, Sydney and Grayndler will rank highly too partly because of Albo and Turnbull and their support. Canberra and Melbourne also will rank highly.

    I was thinking of Brisbane, Canberra and Wentworth when I thought of “teal” (with inverted commas) – they’re quite affluent and socially progressive and believe in action on climate change. Mackeller and North Sydney may not be as enthused by the Voice given their older demographics.

  9. based on current polls id say all but the hard left seats will vote no as to Chandler-Mather aside from Bandt he is the most high profile green and will retain Griffith

  10. Ben’s thread today, stated on the current boundaries, Griffith would have in fact voted for the Republic albeit narrowly and less than Ryan. However, i said earlier in the thread that i believe Brisbane/Griffith will have a stronger voice vote than Ryan. In the intervening 24 years since the Republic referendum there has been much gentrification and densification in both Brisbane and Griffith while a lot of Ryan has remained low density, home owning and Green Wedge.

    https://www.tallyroom.com.au/53501/comment-page-1#comment-793952

  11. If Libs had of finished 3rd here, and Lib preferences flowed at a rate of 34.24% (average of the six Green vs ALP seat Lib-3CP pref flow), than this seat would have been

    GRN: 47.98
    ALP: 52.02

    If we use a more conservative 30% preference flow than it ends up as

    GRN: 46.54
    ALP: 53.46

    So even if Libs fall to 3rd here, I’d still think the Greens would easily be able to win here with a very active incumbent vs the loss of a Labor incumbent. It seems pretty easy for them to perform at least 3.5% better than the ALP relative to last time.

  12. @drake libs won’t fall to 3rd this is alot different to Melbourne this is probably therefore lost to Labor unlike Melbourne in which the could probably convince the libs to help them retake it.

  13. I agree that the LNP won’t fall to third here. Labor were on a high in 2022 due to dissatisfaction with the incumbent Coalition government, but in 2025 the dissatisfaction will be with Labor as the incumbent government (although not to the same extent, probably). That, combined with a sophomore surge, and the trend where the broad left vote often coalescing behind whichever party is deemed to have a better chance in the electorate, should deliver a swing against Labor on primaries, keeping the LNP in second and likely ensuring Chandler-Mather’s re-election.

    I think there’s another cause for concern for Labor too. Griffith, more than most other electorates, is symptomatic of a trend some have identified, where the state of property sales and rent prices are dividing voters into two major camps: those who want prices to fall or flatline for more affordability, and those who want prices to continue rising.

    While the first category obviously includes renters and prospective first home buyers, it can also include parents of adolescent children keeping an eye on their future prospects of home ownership, and home owners who still remember how hard it is to rent or enter the market. Similarly, while the second category obviously includes many property investors, it can also include single home owners who don’t want to be in negative equity, and those who aspire to be property investors. Now of course there are a third category of people who aren’t fussed either way about house prices, but I think this group is falling in numbers as the debate gets more polarising and starts to affect more of society overall.

    The issue for Labor is that the Greens are more appealing than them to the first group, and the LNP are more appealing than them to the second group. And both these groups are well represented in Griffith, with South Brisbane and West End having a large renting population, while Bulimba-Hawthorne have many wealthy people who are likely property investors. Labor is left stuck in the middle, not fully serving the interests of either group, which harms their primary vote in an area where the Greens and LNP are both considered viable options. It remains to be seen whether Albanese’s government can find a way to appeal to both camps, but it’s a tricky tightrope to walk.

  14. @chandler could be defeated by Labor preferncing the coalition but I doubt it would close the gap tbh, however I do believe he will be the successor to bandt as leader who could be beaten if Labor poll high enough on primaries and get coalition support on preferences

  15. John, everything can happen, it’s just a question of likelihood. Of course Bandt can be beaten in Melbourne, but it’s unlikely. Coalition primary voters are known for sticking more closely to HTVs than Labor or Greens primary voters, but I imagine there will also be a fair few who will preference the Greens in the hope that Labor will be forced until minority government. Depends how much they think about the big picture I suppose.

  16. @wilson yes but that’s gonna happen now anyway Labor got just about every seat it could in the last election. There were 7 seats that went 2pp Labor but were won by others. And they were in front in 4 fowler melbourne Clark and Griffith though I can’t remember the 7th seat……

  17. @John
    I think on pure Labor vs Liberal 2pp, the X-bench seat went:
    Fowler, Melbourne, Clark and Griffith are notional Labor retains
    Ryan, Brisbane and Mayo are notional Labor gains
    All 7 teals, Indi and Kennedy are notional Liberal/LNP retains

  18. Unlikely to flip in 2025. I suspect Labor will run dead here. This would ensure the LNP will finish 2nd on 2PP. The LNP could rebound, partly because Labor will run dead, and partly because the anti-Morrison and anti-Coalition factors have now gone. The dissatisfaction with the incumbent will be directed at Labor, rather than the LNP.

    MCM had a clean sweep of all booths and even postals in 2022. Not even Bandt had a clean sweep in Melbourne. I’d say Ryan and Brisbane are less safe than Grififth and Melbourne.

  19. @leon i think libs might be competitive in griffith but it will be a green hold still, ryan brisbane and mayo they may make gains even take the qld ones.
    the teals will become vulnerable to a liberal “dont risk a labor minority Government” campaign given hwat happened last time.

  20. I don’t think Labor will run dead, but I’m not sure they will spend a lot of resources on this seat now the Greens have got it. I heard on the ground last election, the Liberals did run dead in this seat. So it opened it up for the Greens to take it off Labor. And forced Labor to spend more resources in trying to retrain it when they could have been using those resources else where.

  21. I heard the same thing and on election day as they became worried about Griffith they moved resources from Bonner to Griffith.
    The issue for the Labor party is that it is vote in Inner Brisbane is being hollowed increased apartments and a younger demographic is causing this. It is the same issue in Brisbane. Even if everyone who voted last time voted the exact same way in Brisbane and Ryan, there are new voters and some older voters would have died or moved to a retirement village. Among younger voters, there is higher levels of support for minor parties than among older generations. It is a problem Labor will face in seats like Higgins and Macnamara where maybe not 2025 but 2028 they could fall to 3rd place purely by a structural change in the vote.

    According to the link below Brisbane and Griffith are ranked 2 and 3 for the 18-29 demographic.

    https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/electorates-where-young-people-have-most-power/13887530

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