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I’m expecting the Liberals to be handed a drubbing at the SA state election given the serious internal divisions that only seem to be consistently getting worse.
Agreed the sa liberals are going down the same drain as the wa libs time for a clean out.
SA Labor are set for a historic landslide victory according to a YouGov poll released earlier today.
Poll results:
Primaries:
* Labor: 48.0% (+8.0%)
* Liberal: 21.0% (–6.3%)
* Greens: 14.0% (+4.2%)
* One Nation: 7.0% (+4.4%)
TPP:
* Labor: 67.0% (+12.5%)
* Liberal: 33.0% (–12.5%)
If the swing was uniform, the Liberals would be left with just five seats (Chaffey, Flinders, MacKillop, Mount Gambier and Narungga) and that’s assuming that none of the three ex-Liberal independents get re-elected (if all of them did then Chaffey and Flinders would be the only seats left). Either way, none of those five seats are in Adelaide, so they would be wiped out of Adelaide on both the federal and state level.
@NP: Correction for the swings:
Primaries:
* Labor: 48.0% (+8.0%)
* Liberal: 21.0% (–14.7%)
* Greens: 14.0% (+4.9%)
* One Nation: 7.0% (+4.4%)
TPP:
* Labor: 67.0% (+12.4%)
* Liberal: 33.0% (–12.4%)
Note that a 21.0% Liberal primary vote (without the Nationals contesting) will be even lower than in 2021 WA (with the Nationals contesting). The SA Liberals have adopted fringe politics, that’s why they will get fringe political party results.
@Joseph thanks for the correction.
The SA Liberals have been in the pits this term. They lost two seats due to by-elections and a Liberal MLC quit the party early this year. The YouGov result isn’t as lopsided as the WA 2021 result but still represents a wipeout if replicated on election day.
Federal Labor got a statewide 2PP of 59% in SA at the recent federal election. I read that the Liberals only won 3 or 4 booths in the whole of metro Adelaide.
@Votante that sounds about right, not very many booths even had the Liberals getting the most votes.