Southern Metropolitan – Victoria 2026

Incumbent MLCs

    • Ryan Batchelor (Labor), since 2022
    • John Berger (Labor), since 2022
    • Katherine Copsey (Greens), since 2022
    • Georgie Crozier (Liberal), since 2010
    • David Davis (Liberal), since 1996

Geography

Electorate Margin Electorate Margin Electorate Margin
Albert Park ALP 11.2% Caulfield LIB 2.1% Oakleigh ALP 13.5%
Ashwood ALP 6.2% Hawthorn LIB 1.7% Prahran LIB 1.3% vs GRN
Bentleigh ALP 8.0% Kew LIB 4.0% Sandringham LIB 5.0%
Brighton LIB 5.1% Malvern LIB 8.1%

Southern Metropolitan region covers electorates immediately to the south and east of the Melbourne CBD, stretching as far south as Sandringham, and as far as east as Ashwood and Oakleigh.

The Liberal Party holds seven seats (including one that was won off the Greens at a by-election) and Labor holds four.

History
The Southern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

In 2006, the ALP and Liberal Party each won two seats, and the fifth seat was won by the Greens.

In 2010, the Liberal Party won a third seat at the expense of the ALP. The 2010 result was repeated in 2014, with the Liberal Party holding three seats, while Labor and the Greens held one seat each.

The Greens lost their seat in 2018, and the Liberal Party lost one of their three seats. Labor gained a second seat, while Sustainable Australia won a seat.

The Greens regained their seat in 2022, taking it back off Sustainable Australia.

2022 result

Party Votes % Swing Quota
Liberal 169,681 36.1 -1.8 2.167
Labor 139,722 29.7 -5.5 1.784
Greens 72,410 15.4 +2.3 0.925
Legalise Cannabis 13,681 2.9 +2.9 0.175
Liberal Democrats 11,696 2.5 +1.0 0.149
Democratic Labour 10,385 2.2 0.0 0.133
Reason 9,511 2.0 +0.1 0.121
Animal Justice 6,698 1.4 -0.7 0.086
Sustainable Australia 5,170 1.1 -0.2 0.066
Family First 4,734 1.0 +1.0 0.060
Hinch’s Justice 3,807 0.8 -0.7 0.049
Sack Dan Andrews 3,542 0.8 +0.8 0.045
One Nation 3,072 0.7 +0.7 0.039
Freedom Party 2,810 0.6 +0.6 0.036
Victorian Socialists 2,516 0.5 +0.1 0.032
Others 10,418 2.2 0.133
Informal 9,702 2.0

Preference flows
On primary votes, the Liberal Party retained two seats, and Labor retained one.

Let’s fast-forward until there were ten candidates running for the last two seats:

  • Katherine Copsey (GRN) – 0.952
  • Ryan Batchelor (ALP) – 0.771
  • Clifford Hayes (SUS) – 0.218
  • Nick Stavrou (LIB) – 0.201
  • Marc Selan (LGC) – 0.186
  • Matthew Ford (LDP) – 0.161
  • Theodore Tsiongas (DLP) – 0.138
  • Andrew Johnson (REAS) – 0.132
  • Vickie Janson (FF) – 0.123
  • Ben Schultz (AJP) – 0.093

Animal Justice preferences flowed mostly to the Greens, electing Copsey to the fourth seat:

  • Copsey (GRN) – 1.027
  • Batchelor (ALP) – 0.774
  • Hayes (SUS) – 0.220
  • Stavrou (LIB) – 0.201
  • Selan (LGC) – 0.188
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.161
  • Tsiongas (DLP) – 0.138
  • Johnson (REAS) – 0.135
  • Janson (FF) – 0.124

The small Greens surplus mostly flowed to Reason:

  • Batchelor (ALP) – 0.775
  • Hayes (SUS) – 0.220
  • Stavrou (LIB) – 0.201
  • Selan (LGC) – 0.189
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.161
  • Johnson (REAS) – 0.158
  • Tsiongas (DLP) – 0.138
  • Janson (FF) – 0.124

Family First preferences mostly flowed to the DLP or Liberal Party:

  • Batchelor (ALP) – 0.775
  • Stavrou (LIB) – 0.258
  • Hayes (SUS) – 0.221
  • Tsiongas (DLP) – 0.191
  • Selan (LGC) – 0.189
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.166
  • Johnson (REAS) – 0.159

Reason preferences flowed most strongly to Legalise Cannabis:

  • Batchelor (ALP) – 0.806
  • Selan (LGC) – 0.286
  • Stavrou (LIB) – 0.261
  • Hayes (SUS) – 0.227
  • Tsiongas (DLP) – 0.192
  • Ford (LDP) – 0.166

LDP preferences flowed mostly to Sustainable Australia:

  • Batchelor (ALP) – 0.807
  • Hayes (SUS) – 0.355
  • Selan (LGC) – 0.289
  • Stavrou (LIB) – 0.272
  • Tsiongas (DLP) – 0.197

DLP preferences flowed mostly to Sustainable Australia:

  • Batchelor (ALP) – 0.808
  • Hayes (SUS) – 0.514
  • Selan (LGC) – 0.292
  • Stavrou (LIB) – 0.287

Liberal preferences flowed mostly to Sustainable Australia:

  • Batchelor (ALP) – 0.812
  • Hayes (SUS) – 0.730
  • Selan (LGC) – 0.308

Not all Legalise Cannabis preferences were distributed, but they were enough to put Labor over quota:

  • Batchelor (ALP) – 1.054
  • Hayes (SUS) – 0.739
  • Selan (LGC) – 0.024

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.

Regional breakdown
The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in the Southern Metropolitan region. The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in seven electorates, while Labor came first in four. The seat of Prahran was very close between Liberal, Labor and the Greens. The Greens came third but were less than one percentage point away from first place.

The Liberal vote ranged from 25.8% in Oakleigh to 47.1% in Malvern.

The Labor vote ranged from 23.7% in Malvern to 37.2% in Oakleigh.

The Greens vote ranged from 10.2% in Bentleigh to 26.8% in Prahran.

Results of the 2022 Victorian upper house election in the Southern Metropolitan region

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3 COMMENTS

  1. Chances of the Liberals winning 3 and Labor/Greens sharing 1 each here? Doesn’t appear that it would take a big swing from Liberal to Labor on raw numbers and I doubt the impact of a potentially increased ON vote does much here except dilute any influence Druery has with his minor party alliance

  2. i do think Libs will win 3 normally even in close elections like 2014 they win 3. ONP will be weak in Metro Melbourne except places like Sunbury, Evelyn and parts of Eildon none of which are in this seat.

  3. cant see the Liberals winning a 3rd spot based on the fact if labor is eliminated they are probably gonna send there excess to LGC or sustainable australia. though the libs would probably prefer them to labor. il say 2 liberal 1 labor 1 green probably LGC given they would enjoy grn and labor surpluses.