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I know there’s been some rumblings of a teal running here and making a notable play. I feel for a few reasons this seat is a likely retain for the Liberals.
This was the strongest Liberal area in Goldstein. Brighton is safely blue with a lot of affluent voters who pump up the Liberal vote into double digit margins. There is also a decent Jewish population around Brighton East, and if federal results among Jewish voters are to go by then they seem to be trending largely blue as well.
The notable increase in crime and robberies in Brighton would play well with Brad Battin’s law and order agenda he has been heavily promoting, likely pushing voters towards the Liberals who are concerned with crime.
Unless Zoe Daniel decides to run here (I think she’d rather run in Sandringham because her base is in Brighton), and it’s just a ‘cookie cutter’ teal running, then should be a comfortable retain for James Newbury.
@ James
You are correct. i think Zoe Daniel is better running in Sandringham where the Jewish community is smaller and crime rates lower.
Just noticed a typo, was meant to say Hampton instead of Brighton in the final paragraph. Zoe Daniel’s base is in Hampton.
@Nimalan – agreed. Would be a better shot at winning there for those reasons you mentioned.
The Elwood & Elwood North booth look out of place here.
Elwood fits much better with St Kilda. Ideally there would be a seat based on St Kilda, St Kilda East, Balaclava, Elwood and maybe Windsor which would have a very strong community of interest, because currently Balaclava is out of place in Caulfield, Elwood is way out of place in Brighton, and St Kilda which has its own very distinctive community of interest is split between two seats.
The problem is the numbers just don’t really work to do that without leaving seats like Albert Park & Prahran short unless they cross the river.
Elwood belongs in Albert Park. Maybe Southbank could be moved to Melbourne to compensate. Southbank definitely is a better fit for Melbourne than Elwood is for Brighton.
Random question for Ben (posting here because I already have a previous post relating to the topic which is awaiting moderation):
How come if you make a post while NOT logged into Patreon it appears automatically, but if you post while logged into your Patreon account, it requires moderation? I would have thought it would be the other way around where being a Patreon contributor would skip the moderation process.
It’s a bit of a weird quirk because if you want your post to appear automatically, you have to log into the Patreon to view the whole page properly, then log out again to make your post.