LIB 5.0%
Incumbent MP
Brad Rowswell, since 2018.
Geography
Southern Melbourne. Sandringham covers the southern half of the City of Bayside, covering suburbs along Port Phillip Bay, including Beaumaris, Black Rock, Highett and Sandringham and parts of the suburbs of Cheltenham, Hampton and Mentone.
History
Sandringham was first created for the 1955 election. It has been won by the Liberal Party at all but one election, with the ALP only winning the seat in 1982.
The seat was first won in 1955 by the Liberal Party’s Murray Porter. He became a minister in the Liberal government in 1956, and served as a minister until his retirement in 1970.
He was succeeded by Maxwell Crellin at the 1970 election. He held the seat until 1982, when he lost his seat, defeated by the ALP’s Graham Ihlein.
Ihlein held his seat for one term. Following a redistribution, he contested the seat of Evelyn unsuccessfully, with Sandringham won by the Liberal Party’s David Rea.
Rea held the seat until 1992, when he retired. He was succeeded by Murray Thompson. Thompson held the seat for seven terms, retiring in 2018.
Liberal candidate Brad Rowswell narrowly retained Sandringham in 2018. Rowswell was re-elected in 2022.
- Timon Fotakis (Greens)
- Brad Rowswell (Liberal)
- Anastasia Sagris-Desmond (Labor)
- Lauren Stevenson (Victorian Socialists)
Assessment
The Liberal Party should retain this seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Brad Rowswell | Liberal | 18,783 | 46.4 | +3.8 |
| Bettina Prescott | Labor | 10,426 | 25.7 | -7.4 |
| Alysia Regan | Greens | 5,949 | 14.7 | +6.5 |
| Clarke Martin | Independent | 2,800 | 6.9 | -1.6 |
| Barbara Eppingstall | Animal Justice | 976 | 2.4 | -0.8 |
| Karla Zmegac | Democratic Labour | 749 | 1.8 | -1.0 |
| Jill Chalmers | Family First | 714 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Rodney Campbell | Independent | 115 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
| Informal | 1,699 | 4.0 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Brad Rowswell | Liberal | 22,294 | 55.0 | +4.6 |
| Bettina Prescott | Labor | 18,216 | 45.0 | -4.6 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal Party topped the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, with 50.3% in the north and 58.1% in the south-west. Labor polled 54.8% in the south-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 15.2% in the south-west to 18.7% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 18.7 | 50.3 | 4,993 | 12.3 |
| South-West | 15.2 | 58.1 | 4,559 | 11.2 |
| South-East | 18.0 | 45.2 | 3,784 | 9.3 |
| Pre-poll | 13.2 | 57.1 | 20,769 | 51.1 |
| Other votes | 14.0 | 56.4 | 6,536 | 16.1 |
Election results in Sandringham at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Is there a chance Zoe Daniel might run here?
And would she have a shot at winning?
@ James
Before i mention Zoe Daniel. This seat comes into 2 parts along the Frankston line it is middle class and part of the Sandbelt the low margin is due to Labor having a thumping result there due to Metro Tunnel/Level crossing removals.
Zoe Daniel may have a shot of the Libs move rightwards on net zero
@Nimalan – thanks for clarifying about this seats demographics. I’ve felt the coastal areas are quite Liberal while the inland areas are more Labor voting, so good to see the explanation.
Correct me if I’m wrong, the Victorian Liberals still have a net-zero target for 2050? If that is the case then they should be relatively fine in Sandringham and other tealish seats. If they abandon it, I’d be quite worried.
Add on that Zoe might not have the best reputation in the community after prematurely celebrating retaining Goldstein yet going on to lose it. Don’t think Brad Rowswell has any sort of controversy which could muck up his chances.
@ James
Both parties have a 2045 Net Zero target. However, they maybe pressure to abandon it from the Liberal membership/Sky News. In Victoria climate wars theoritically should be less as there is no Coal export industry, domestic coal declining for decades and the only Coal seat Morwell is now a Nationals seat so there is less need to use it as a wedge. However, many in the Victorian Liberal party are ideological so i would not be surprised if there is a push to drop it.
I feel one reason Zoe lost was due to Israel which is not a factor in Sandringham as the most Jewish parts of Goldstein are in Cauflield and to a lesser extent East Brighton and Bentleigh.
could Zoe Dnaiel run in Bentleigh instead?
John – not a bad idea as she’d be less likely to win, keeping her free to run in Goldstein again and be able to bring an “I ran against Labor!” narrative to that campaign
John
Bentleigh is middle class so classic ALP/LIB territory people dont need to hold their nose to vote Labor. People there are focus on bread/butter issues
Labor has done a lot for the seat
Nick Staikos is popular
@nimalna what about voting liberal?
There is a decent Liberal vote in Bentleigh and whenever they are in government they hold it so there is no need for Liberal voters to tactically vote for her to get rid of Staikos. Fremantle and Bean where different cases.