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this is massively over quota can probably lose mithcell shire.
The issue is that Yan Yean is also over quota and will need to shrink as well. Kalkallo will be a safe Labor hold in 2026 maybe a 5% Swing to Libs
Maybe split this into two seats, have lower half Kalkallo and the top called Wallan?
@nimalan Yan Yean is only 2% over quota Kalkallo is 22%. im thinking top up the regional seats north (Ovens, Shepparton and Euroa with a bit rought about 7% so basically the bparts of Mitchell in Yan Yean and put Kalkallo parts on Mitchell into Yan Yean then remove Nillumbik from Yan Yean.
@spacefish ou wouldnt get 2 seats out of this wouldnt even get 1.5 just chop off the parts of Mitchell
@ John
If you put parts of Kalkallo such as Beveridge/Wallan into Yan Yean it wil likely make Yan Yean very safe Labor. Nilumbik is the strongest Liberal part of the seat. Nilumbik is also Green Wedge so will stay Liberal but Wallan will trend Labor as it urbanises
@Nimalan i dont raw seats to benefit one party of the other its based on the numbers available. taking Nillumbik out of yan yean will see it go into Eltham and that helps the liberal party.
@John
i know you do not just looking at future trends thats all. I see Yan yean trending Labor long term. I see Sydenham becoming more Labor while Niddrie will beocme better for Libs as it wil take more of Taylors Lakes from Sydnenham
yes Yan Yean is gonna trend labor its only a matter fo time before Nillumbik is removed, 2026 will probably be the libs last chance to win it. altoghut if they re incumbent in 2030 they may be able to hold it.Eltham shoud tren Liberal also as it loses Banyule
@ John
If Libs win Government and Yan Yean in 2026 there is a possibility they can still hold it if they prioritise Wollert rail link even with an Unfavourable redistribution. I think there is anti-SRL sentiment in Yan Yean.
The Banyule part of Eltham does contain Lower Plenty which is a good Liberal booth and so is St Helena to some extent. Eltham does not have big variation in booth results.
so after moving wallan etc into yan yean you can move Nillumbik into Eltham fixing that up and then move Mill Park further north and probably rename it South Morang. moving Bundoora furhter nito Mill Park losing Greensborough to Eltham (whihc i might consisder renaming Diamond Creek) which can transfer the lower half of Banyule to Ivanhoe