To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
Usually I would say the trend here has been that it’s a risk for the Liberals and ripe for Labor to pick up if they ran the right candidate.
However, this area swung against the grain at the federal election – towards the Liberal Party (pretty hard in some booths) – even despite Josh Burns’ popularity and personal vote.
Southwick will easily retain here with an increased margin.
Southwick might retire?
I would say if Southwick does retire, which is certainly possible after being at the centre of the Deeming saga having taken the secret recordings, it will probably remain quite marginal because a very significant personal vote will be lost.
Liberals should still comfortably retain I would say, this certainly isn’t the election nor period of time in which Labor will finally swoop in and pick up Caulfield, but it’ll at least be a closer contest if Southwick doesn’t run and Labor choose the right candidate.
@ Trent
I agree i think there will be a Jewish swing to the Libs even if all non-Jewish residents vote exactly the same as they did in 2022. Plus this is still an affluent electorate so Private School Payroll Tax, Land Tax will hurt Labor here. I feel that Southwick has had a greater profile since October 7 and unlike Pesutto he often appears with Brad Battin at events so i think there is a better relationship between these. Southwick is never really attacked on Sky After Dark etc.
Liberal hold, however given the Liberals infighting it could hurt them here.
Southwick should retire given his shameful conduct in the Deeming saga.
One reason Southwick may decide to retire is because he had leadership ambitions that have no doubt been extinguished now by that saga. No longer seeing any path to promotion is a pretty good reason to retire after 16 years of service.
The Liberals can’t afford another open race, especially if they keep infighting.
If Southwick recontests I think he will pad the Liberals’ margin to around 5%.
If Southwick retires and it’s an open contest – and Labor pick a strong, high profile Jewish candidate – it will remain marginal but given the swings to the Liberal Party in this area even against popular Josh Burns in May, it’d still be a Liberal retain possibly with really no swing at all (~2% margin) as a general ALP to LIB swing and loss of Southwick’s incumbency will just cancel each other out.
If Southwick retired, Frydenberg would be a good fit. He would be more secure there, and closer to his dream of leadership than he would be federally.
Libs are winning this with a bigger margin than before. There is no way labor can win this probably ever. The jewish community is now (mostly) strongly against labor
Yea labor strategically waited until after the elecgion to back a palestinian state because theres no way jews would vote for them had they announced it before. Libs should learn from this they announ ed policies that put people against them b eofre the electio n kind of like bill shorten in 2019.