Caulfield – Victoria 2026

Usually I would say the trend here has been that it’s a risk for the Liberals and ripe for Labor to pick up if they ran the right candidate.

However, this area swung against the grain at the federal election – towards the Liberal Party (pretty hard in some booths) – even despite Josh Burns’ popularity and personal vote.

Southwick will easily retain here with an increased margin.

Southwick might retire?

I would say if Southwick does retire, which is certainly possible after being at the centre of the Deeming saga having taken the secret recordings, it will probably remain quite marginal because a very significant personal vote will be lost.

Liberals should still comfortably retain I would say, this certainly isn’t the election nor period of time in which Labor will finally swoop in and pick up Caulfield, but it’ll at least be a closer contest if Southwick doesn’t run and Labor choose the right candidate.

@ Trent
I agree i think there will be a Jewish swing to the Libs even if all non-Jewish residents vote exactly the same as they did in 2022. Plus this is still an affluent electorate so Private School Payroll Tax, Land Tax will hurt Labor here. I feel that Southwick has had a greater profile since October 7 and unlike Pesutto he often appears with Brad Battin at events so i think there is a better relationship between these. Southwick is never really attacked on Sky After Dark etc.

Liberal hold, however given the Liberals infighting it could hurt them here.

Southwick should retire given his shameful conduct in the Deeming saga.

One reason Southwick may decide to retire is because he had leadership ambitions that have no doubt been extinguished now by that saga. No longer seeing any path to promotion is a pretty good reason to retire after 16 years of service.

The Liberals can’t afford another open race, especially if they keep infighting.

If Southwick recontests I think he will pad the Liberals’ margin to around 5%.

If Southwick retires and it’s an open contest – and Labor pick a strong, high profile Jewish candidate – it will remain marginal but given the swings to the Liberal Party in this area even against popular Josh Burns in May, it’d still be a Liberal retain possibly with really no swing at all (~2% margin) as a general ALP to LIB swing and loss of Southwick’s incumbency will just cancel each other out.

If Southwick retired, Frydenberg would be a good fit. He would be more secure there, and closer to his dream of leadership than he would be federally.

Libs are winning this with a bigger margin than before. There is no way labor can win this probably ever. The jewish community is now (mostly) strongly against labor

Yea labor strategically waited until after the elecgion to back a palestinian state because theres no way jews would vote for them had they announced it before. Libs should learn from this they announ ed policies that put people against them b eofre the electio n kind of like bill shorten in 2019.

Interesting to see that the Independent Socialist won here in 1943.

There seems to be a lot of anger from the Jewish community towards federal Labor and their perceived in action on recent events so it’s likely there could be an above average swing against the ALP here.

Expect 10%+ swings against Labor here .

Jacinta Allen and Ben Carroll were booed at an event in Melbourne while Jess Wilson was cheered

@Up the Dragons Wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a contagion effect in neighbouring seats, also seeing big swings to the Liberals.

Issue is most of the Labor seats surrounding here are safe-ish seats, and of course this seat is right in the middle of the Liberal’s blue wall in the inner east.

@Cj agreed. Large jewish population in Bentleigh too.

Regardless of what they try and do the Jewish population believe labor have failed them. They believe labor are being soft of muslims because they rely on them to cover their own asses in western sydney.

I’m sure there are a lot of people (outside the Jewish community) who would also be appalled by David Southwick’s tasteless and tactless political point-scoring attempts, which might cancel some of it out.

I am certainly shocked by it and would think that especially being a Jewish man himself, he should know better than to react to a tragedy by saying that if Jacinta Allan wasn’t the Premier of VIC (?!?!?) this shooting in NSW would never have happened because she is personally responsible for it. I mean, seriously? I would never, ever, try to make innocent people feel guilty for such a heinous act. It’s abhorrent.

He said this on the same day that Josh Burns’ put up a post, tagging Southwick when they were at an event together, completely putting politics to the side and saying that he & David are two proud Jewish men grieving together at a time we need unity.

David you may be much older, but perhaps here you should take a lesson from the much younger Josh Burns in how to actually respectfully and appropriately react to a tragedy rather than exploit it. Josh Burns also still managed to get a message across about tackling the cause of antisemitism, but without pointing fingers and blaming. Because he’s actually a decent human being.

Many people will see Southwick’s comments as blatant exploitation of the tragedy. Those who hold the same view as him probably already voted for Southwick, noting that at a state level he usually outperforms federal Labor already in the Caulfield area.

Not saying he won’t get a swing especially within the Jewish community, and would also have got a swing anyway just from the general ALP to LIB swing that is expected across the state. However, I think to suggest that David Southwick’s response to the attack, personally blaming a VIC Premier for the actions of two extremists in NSW, will actually help increase his support is a bit of a stretch I think and insults people’s intelligence that they won’t see through it being cheap, tasteless point scoring.

In addition to the post for example, he is still doubling down and just this morning on 3AW said that Jacinta Allan “has blood on her hands” for the tragedy in Sydney.

I am sure most people, even ardent critics of Jacinta Allan and/or the Labor government, would see that as really clutching at straws to tie this tragedy into the upcoming VIC election campaign.

I doubt this will still be a major election issue by November anyway

State Labor already underperforms federal Labor here consistently. This blaming Labor for the NSW incident is seriously poor form and I agree with comments above that the public want appreciate this being used for political score points.

Won’t”

@ Trent
With all due respect maybe put yourself in the shoes of a minority group that was targeted on the most sacred of days. I dont want to say who is right and wrong on the Middle East Conflict maybe as an Anglo Celtic male you cannot understand what life is like as a minority. I know many Jews and on my linkedin page etc Grief is turning into Anger quickly. There is a perception that the warning signs were there. Albanese is being attacked by many others who are not Jewish so for balance maybe maybe cite them John Howard, Scott Morrison, Tony Abbott have attacked Albanese as a weak leader rightly or wrongly. Hastie said Albanese did not speak up to protect his voting base in “South West Sydney”. Dutton called it a day of National Shame. At Bondi, Pauline Hanson was well received but Mehreen Faruqi was heckled and booed. Ray Hadley called for Albo to resign

I think it would be wise for Jacinta Allan/Albanese not to strike back and attack a community in mourning. Rightly or Wrongly Australia has changed and everyone will remember where there when they heard the news of Australia’s Darkest day. There will be a lot of debates in the coming months and years about immigration/assimilation etc. I dont think it is just the Jewish community that is angry but many see that Western Civilisation was attacked that day on our most iconic beach

That’s right, I agree with both comments above.

– In the Caulfield area/booths, the state Liberals consistently outperform the federal Liberals anyway, and have for quite some time now. Even in Labor landslides like 2018, Southwick did better than the federal Liberals did in 2019. I believe there is a pretty solid cohort of Southwick/Burns (previously Southwick/Danby) voters in Caulfield’s Jewish community, which I believe will blunt any swing to the Liberals at the state level here among the cohort most likely to be angry at Labor here;

– Even at the recent federal election, I believe the significant swings to the Liberals in the Caulfield area probably included a lot of the the Southwick/Burns voters of 2022 switching to the Liberals federally, so are probably already sitting in the Liberal column at the state level;

– While this incident is absolutely tragic, is it really going to move a whole of people’s votes who weren’t already moved by October 7, the Adass Israel synagogue attack and all the tension over Gaza/Israel in general?

– And finally, when it comes to a flow-on effect for other voters for whom Israel/Gaza has not been an issue, will Southwick’s poor form in trying to link this NSW tragedy to the VIC Premier really be perceived positively? I don’t think it will. There is surely be a lot of sympathy for the Jewish community but I don’t think that will translate into agreeing with David Southwick’s finger pointing.

@Nimalan, I totally agree with your comments about the grief turning to anger in that community, not disputing that at all.

But for all the finger-pointing at Labor (both state & federal) by many people, not just the Jewish community but more broadly, there is also a backlash to the politicization of it for anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim and anti-Labor purposes too.

The names you list are all notable Liberal-aligned or right-wing identities, which if anything probably makes their messages resonate less among voters who don’t like them. Even if you’re a relatively centrist ALP/LIB swing voter, would personalities like Abbott, Dutton, Hastie & Hanson delivering the message of Labor party failure make it resonate more or less? I’d say probably less because it is coming from such a partisan source.

Especially when, at the same time, you have people like Josh Burns who is just as personally impacted as David Southwick, being able to rise above partisan politics, and strongly communicate that we need to look at WHY (not just the HOW) Jewish people were targeted and the causes of antisemitism, but do it in a way that calls for unity, doesn’t demonise immigrants or Muslims, doesn’t blame politicians, and doesn’t seek to exploit the issue.

He came across as genuine, compassionate, responsible and measured. This is the leadership the country needs at a time like this, not politicians seeking to divide, blame and throw fuel on the fire, and maybe I’m too optimistic but I have faith that most Australian people are intelligent and reasonable enough to see through those exploiting the tragedy, and respect those who are trying to unite people instead.

I didn’t vote for Josh Burns but this isn’t the first time he has thoroughly impressed me with the way he has acted with such integrity. I think he can be a future star of the Labor Party. I expected a lot better from David Southwick, and if I feel that way, surely others observe his behaviour in the same way.

@ Trent
You are correct that will be a backlash to the politicization of it for anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim sentiment and that is why i told you in the past i dont think Greenvale is winnable as it has a very large Muslim community and i have beeen skeptical that the Libs can win the Narre Warren seats which have a growing Afghan community.
You are also correct that i have listed notable Liberal-Aligned and right-wing identifies. I suspect why many on the right will want to exploit this trajedy is because they feel that Islamaphobia is more widespread including among many Anglo Australians. Howard used this succesfully. I think Liberals probably believe that this would work in a seat like Sunbury. British Muslim Politician Sayeed Warsi said once that Islamophobia is one of the last forms of bigotry that passes the “Dinner table test”. We saw two days ago a Muslim cemetry in Camden area of Sydney attacked with Pig heads being thrown. That area is no where near Bondi and is a very Anglo area. i agree that the right flank will exploit this trajedy and spread anti-Muslim sentiment but i believe a lot of the message is designed for Anglos in seats like Pearce and not for Jews. The reason i dont want to attack Southwick is i dont want to tell any Jews how they should feel or preach to them. I am happy for others to criticise Hastie/Abbott, Andrew Bolt etc

@Nimalan

I would agree with if the remarks were made by a member of the general public. I have sympathy for those who heckled Tony Burke, even if I don’t agree with the sentiment they were expressing. I likewise had sympathy for residents of Cobargo who heckled Scott Morrison when he visited after the bushfires. All of these people were/are hurting and their words and actions shouldn’t be held against them but treated with compassion.

The difference in this case is that Southwick is a politician. He has responsibilities that members of the general public do not.

* would agree with you

I agree with all of that too, I think the Liberals’ messaging is clearly targeted at that.

Regarding Southwick, I also agree that I don’t think it’s my place to tell any Jewish person how they should be feeling or reacting either, and the anger is clearly understandable. But at the same time, as an elected representative whose job is to show leadership, I believe some of his comments have been out of line and poor form, which is in stark contrast to how Josh Burns has handled the situation.

My comments are also more about how those comments will be perceived. Remember that living among the large Jewish community in this pocket of Melbourne is also a very progressive and highly educated population, and I don’t feel like clutching at straws to link a NSW tragedy to the VIC Premier coming into an election year will be particularly well perceived among those voters.

And meanwhile the carnage generated against innocents by Israel, continues – you don’t have to be an Anglo – Celtic male to be able to join the dots and understand the sociology of what is happening here. We need to distinguish very clearly the distinction between our Jewish community and Netanyahu’s Israel. Weaponising this tragedy for cheap partisan political purposes is NOT helpful.

100% Nicholas. A politician has a responsibility that a general citizen doesn’t, regardless their faith. They should be calling for unity and a bipartisan response. It is the worst possible time to inflame the situation with more division and blame.

@ Nicholas
I respect your point. Maybe i just see politicians like Southwick as humans who can get emotional as well like the rest of us and i want to be cautious about that given his background. If you attacked Scomo etc then i feel it is different.
@ Trent
I agree that the non Jewish population who live in Caulfield tend to be educated/moderate etc. I do think that unlike other forms of bigory, Islamphobia which i do condemn does not get the same level of attention and i think a lot of centrist voters including in Teal areas ignore it i think part of it Class based as well. It is why John Howard etc never really suffered a backlash. I think it is mostly the Greens progressive areas like Brunswick that speak the most for Muslims more than Tealish areas.

Next year’s Hanukkah will be earlier in December and a week after the election.

I believe there is an issue of national security and intelligence and coordination between authorities. I do hope this can be addressed.

I can understand that the Jewish community is upset and angry looking for answers. It’s a bit like how Scott Morrison was heckled in Cobargo during the bushfires as @Nicholas mentioned. How Premier Allan and PM Albanese respond and deal with it in the long-term will be critical.

@votante agreed people were obviously pretty emotional during the bushfires and people often blame their problems on the government especially when they believe the government contributed to the problem or didnt do enough

I have generally strongly avoided commenting during situations like this for any number of reasons but generally out of respect to let the situation play out for a time.

That being said, I do have some perspective on the matter albeit to a much lesser degree. I am from a Catholic family in Northern Ireland that escaped political violence. I am old enough to remember “The Troubles” although I was very young. I lost a cousin to a bus attack when he was 11. Eventually my parents made the decision to emigrate so here I am. I do not equate it to anything experienced by some Jews or some Muslims but it does give some personal exposure. It does give an appreciation for other’s situations. It’s not easy being driven from your home. To be thought of as less than your neighbours.

I am careful to criticize other’s responses because it could invariably be criticized by someone. Usually someone that isn’t a party. Fortunately no one in Australia is as craven as a Trump so far to offer despicable comments on a situation and I hope that it remains that way.

Hopefully at the very least it will be thought provoking for everyone.

And to clarify, I take no issue with David Southwick being angry (of course he is), looking for answers, and wanting to address antisemitism. It is absolutely valid for him to question things like rhetoric which contributes to antisemitism, as I think the impact of rhetoric towards any group especially from people in power or with influence should always be examined and criticised if it does inflame tensions. There is also a valid debate around whether the Palestine protests may inflame antisemitism more broadly. All valid. It is his job to question that.

What I don’t think is valid and will be perceived as poor form and political point scoring, is suggesting with such certainty that two radicalized men who had accumulated weapons and had links to a known terror group that existed long before Oct 7, would never have carried out this act if the Victorian Premier hadn’t allowed university students to protest the Israeli government in Melbourne CBD, and that she is personally responsible for it and has “blood on her hands”.

To me, that crossed not only crossed a line of being irresponsible and inflaming division instead of promoting unity, but also comes across like a pretty desperate attempt to gain political leverage out of a tragedy that has so deeply affected his own community, by very tenuously linking a NSW event to the VIC Premier.

Ironically, the Victorian Liberals here actually have a real opportunity to demonstrate that they can put politics to the side and work constructively with their opponents to achieve outcomes for the greater good. That is exactly what helps to present yourself as a viable alternative government, and is something they didn’t do during the pandemic and should learn from, but they appear to be doing the opposite.

Valid criticism is of course not only acceptable but should be expected, as is searching for answers and trying to address root causes. The risk for the Liberals is that, just like during the pandemic and the recent federal election campaign, valid criticism they have loses its power and doesn’t cut through if it’s drowned out by noise that the electorate can see through. It gives them less credibility as the messenger.

@ Trent
Leaving Southwick aside and lets focus on Jess Wilson who is a Christian and got married in a Church. She went to Strathcona which is affiliated to the Baptist Church. If she called for unity and muticultualism, is there a chance that Sky After Dark will accuse her of being Labor Lite, “Muslim appeasement” and being soft and use their proxies in the membership and some right wing MPs to sabotage her?

They will absolutely do that, but I think Sky News not endorsing or supporting the Victorian Liberals would be a gift to them when it comes to the actual voters they need to win over to win the election.

Those who agree with Sky News are already not voting for or preferencing Labor. The Libs should let those voters get disgruntled, vote One Nation and then put Labor last which they probably will.

Of course the more complicated factor is within the party. The Liberals’ chances in 2026 will completely be erased if the right-wing for whatever reason decide to sabotage her leadership and replace her. So it’s a balancing act, but I don’t think it should be a hard sell for her, if she’s a good enough leader, to communicate her strategy in terms of maximising electoral success to her colleagues.

The biggest challenge for Victoria Liberals and also NSW Liberals might actually be if Federal Coalition begins to abandon multiculturalism given the hard-right is becoming anti-multicultural recently to the extent now Christian Right and Libertarians have jumped into the bandwagon. For both Libs, this would be a political suicide.

I agree Marh. There is actually a real risk for the Victorian Liberals in how they handle this, even moreso I think than for Labor who are in government at both levels. Labor obviously have to handle the response to this well, that goes without saying.

But the Liberals are at risk of wedging themselves or going too far down the wrong path. While this tragedy has obviously shaken Australia much more than the last 2 years since October 7, I feel like the Liberals leaned way too far into the Gaza/antisemitism issue at the federal election and it didn’t pay any dividends for them other than maybe re-gaining Goldstein.

Since that election, the party are rapidly losing votes to One Nation on their right-flank and trying to stem that. If the federal Coalition use this tragedy to dog-whistle and focus on issues like anti-immigration and “Australian values” (all signs point to them doing this already), that can damage the brand overall which will have an impact on the Victorian Liberals even if they do their best to avoid that.

And a lot of the seats the Liberals “must” win in Victoria are very multicultural. There are not enough seats where Anglo-Australians more likely to have socially conservative views will decide the outcome.

Even most outer-suburban seats that are more socially conservative are very multicultural, while the eastern suburbs seats held by Labor are both multicultural and socially progressive.

So while it’s critical that Labor who are in government at both levels respond to this the right way, the Liberals have their own risks too, and my view is that any attempt to exploit this tragedy is likely to do more harm than good among the voters they actually need to win, even if it is supported by their base and those deflecting to One Nation.

I echo Trent’s comments. This tragedy should’ve never occurred and my heart goes out to all who’ve been affected. But linking this to Jacinta Allan (who’s been premier of a neighbouring state AND who’s clearly personally more determined to combat antisemitism than Islamophobia from my POV), is childish, irrational and extremely unfair. She didn’t order to shooters to carry this out, why should she have ‘blood on her hands’?

It probably won’t change the pendulum that much being honest. Most of the biggest communities are in here, Hawthorn, Malvern and also Brighton/Kew and to a lesser extent Bentleigh. All of them are Liberal seats bar the latter so they’re only preaching to their base.

Last election, Labor kept swings to a minimal or even got swings to them south and east of the Yarra. Also, a teal candidate ran sort like a spoiler candidate in Caulfield. Labor fielded a Jewish candidate.

Putting aside the Bondi Beach massacre aside, I think with Jess Wilson at the helm could win back some fiscally-conservative, small-L liberals if they play their cards right. Add to that, the Liberals probably hit reached its bottom in 2018 to 2022. I’ve tipped Caulfield to swing to the Liberals, just like the rest of the state.

Me too. Regardless of Bondi, I think Southwick was always going to increase his margin in Caulfield. Well, “always” being at least since VIC Labor’s popularity has plummeted over the past 18 months.

When the Deeming/Pesutto saga kicked off and Labor still appeared to be in a commanding lead, and Southwick’s recordings were at the centre of the saga, I actually thought that with Southwick’s leadership prospects out the window he might resign which would open up the contest for Labor to pick it up.

But with Southwick contesting, the more general Jewish swing to the Liberals since 2023 evidenced in the federal election, VIC Labor’s decline in popularity and Jess Wilson being leader has all made this clearly look like it will swing to the Liberals. This was the case regardless of Bondi, and I honestly don’t think Bondi specifically will have much (if any) impact on the result.