To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
The swing here was quite violent last time, will be interesting to see if Labor rebounds or continues to go backwards?
@ SpaceFish my instinct is that it will be one of the few seats to swing to Labor on TPP i expect Victorian Socialists will surge and the Cooker vote will decrease.
Remember in 1992, Broadmeadows and Thomastown were among few seats to swing to Labor.
@Nimalan,
Labor suffered a swing against them here in 2025. Also a lot of the seats in western/northern Melbourne either went backwards or barely moved. I’m not entirely convinced that voters in this part of Melbourne have forgiven the state government/federal and cost of living is really hurting this part of Melbourne more than the other side.
Even if seats like this, Mill Park, Broadmeadows etc don’t swing back to the ALP the margins are still massive and won’t be an issue for Labor. Victorian Liberals won’t win here regardless if they go full right or alt-right under whoever is leading them.
@ Spacefish
gellibrand and Fraser had big swings to Labor including in poor suburbs like Altona Meadows Laverton and St Albans
In Scullin there was a slight swing to Libs in TPP terms but poorer western part which is this seat had small swings to Labor in TPP I think what will happen is that Labor primary vote will not increase but there will be a surge to Victorian Socialists and Greens especially among Muslims and a decrease in the Cooker vote. if you look at Calwell at a federal level there was actually a notional TPP swing among the poorer booths
I’m interested about the Victorian Socialists’s popularity. Their candidate came third on primary votes in 2022. At the 2025 federal election in Scullin, they came second on primary votes (even beating the Liberals and Greens) at several booths including in Thomastown and Epping.
In 2022, in seats like Thomastown, Mill Park and other seats in northern and western Melbourne, the anti-lockdown micro-party vote will subside (DLP, Freedom, Angry Victorians etc.). The Greens, Vic Socialists, One Nation and Family First will dominate the non-major party vote.