Malvern – Victoria 2026

Population has shrunk here, maybe this seat could get the chop in 2030?

Malvern has grown by 1,421 electors since the last redistribution whereas Kew has dropped by 221 electors during the same time

I think John has a case for Mulgrave which shouldn’t be overlooked but my view is that it is the east that a seat will go and if its not Mulgrave it will around that area

iin the west all the seats from Bellarine through South Barwon Geelong Eureka Melton Sydneyham etc al the way to sunbury and st albans youve got a surplus of about 89% of a seat.then if you jump acroos and include Kororoit youve got 110%. then south of the yarra between mornington and albert park youve got at least 50% under but thats partially offset by surpluses in Cranbourne NArre Warren South and Berwick.

Michael O’Brien has announced retirement.

Not that it matters, Liberal hold.

It could be interesting if a teal challenger enters. Winning would be tricky. Fed election results show that most booths in Toorak and Malvern leaned Liberal.

The seat of Malvern is predominantly the most solid blue parts of the old Higgins.

I always considered Higgins to have 3 distinct parts: Green west (overlapping Prahran); solid blue centre (overlapping Malvern); red leaning east (overlapping seats like Oakleigh & Ashwood).

A teal would certainly do better in Malvern than Labor or the Greens, but I still don’t think they’d be particularly competitive. This area single-handedly kept Higgins blue (until 2022) despite the east & west thirds of that seat becoming more & more solidly red/green.

Malvern is a solidly blue-ribbon Liberal seat. It’s the second safest Liberal seat in Victoria. Toorak and Malvern have lots of wealthier real estate owners. The median age is older and they’re relatively socially conservative. They are more favourable demographics for the Liberals. The eastern parts like Malvern East lean to Labor.

I don’t see Labor targeting the seat. The margin is too high for them.

I agree that a teal would likely do better than Labor. However with a teal, it could become like Kew in 2022 where the Liberal primary vote is high but the teal splits the non-Liberal vote.

Will be interesting who the Liberals nominate, the Malvern branches are said to be more aligned with Frydenberg than the Kew Hawthorn branches which are said to align more with Pesutto/Hamer.

Could Georgie Crozier move to lower house?

Wishing all the best to Michael O’Brien after a great career.

Nominations for preselection for the next election open on Monday and close end of September. Suspect there will be around 5 candidates with Jacquie Blackwell and Amelia Hamer being the front runners.

MOB did have a great career. Bit unfortunate that Covid pandemic hit when he was leader of the opposition and couldn’t get any traction.

Pollster,
Without knowing who the other candidates are, I would think Blackwell would be the Frydenberg/conservative faction’s pick and Hamer would be the Moderate faction’s pick, with the unsuccessful candidate being the front runner to be the candidate for Kooyong.

Even on the federal results the Liberals would still win here if it were repeated exactly the same.

Isn’t frydenberf a moderate?

@Pencil – Blackwell has been around Malvern / Higgins for years (20 plus) and is very well known. I suspect she will get broad support from the local members rather than being a “factions pick”.

I also suspect Josh would be the front runner for Kooyong in 2028.

Best Pollster

I don’t think this preselection will be factionally driven. More about who the local members want as their representative.

I would call Josh F and O’Brien moderates and believe that they reflect the membership in Kooyong / Higgins and therefore Malvern.

I would be very surprised if a “carpet bagger” was parachuted into the seat. The locals would not accept that.

Frydenberg isn’t a moderate – he was part of the Scott Morrison/Alex Hawke faction and he wasn’t out of place as Morrison’s deputy. I think Hamer outperformed him for a reason

Pollster,
Frydenberg might look moderate, except his views on climate and marriage equality align more with conservatives.

Agree, Blackwell being a long time local would get Malvern, Hamer isn’t a blow-in since she went to school and her first job were both in the electorate.

Frydenberg dreams of becoming PM, however looking @ Kooyong’s profile, Hamer is the better fit, not just for 2028, and into the 2030s/40’s. Frydenberg has already lost substantial support across Kooyong, and the right faction has already rolled him on energy, and will only accept him if he is against net zero, going against his electorate.

@Pencil – sorry when I was thinking about a “carpet bagger” I was thinking about someone from somewhere else in Victoria. Absolutely agree that “Hamer isn’t a blow in”.

@BNJ – I think JF didn’t do as well as Hamer because he was JF…. And agree that JF has no chance of returning in Kooyong. The demographics of the electorate is moving very unfavorably for him.

Kelly odwyer pls make a comeback the Vic libs need you

If Katie Allen hadn’t been diagnosed with cancer shortly after the federal election, she would probably have been in the running since she held Higgins for a term, and even when she ran in Prahran in 2018, she actually lived in the part (Toorak) that got moved out to Malvern in the 2021 redistribution.

Trent
As able as I believe Katie Allen to be, the preselection should go to a younger person who has serious leadership potential. On the other hand, Josh Frydenburg would at least be able to take it up to the Allen Labor government – something that Brad Battin seems increasingly unable to do.